On November 12, in
Los Angeles, California, President Roh Moo-hyun made a speech
urging the United States to moderate its position with regard to
North Korea. Last weekend, in Santiago, Chile, during the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperative (APEC) meeting, President Roh and
President George W. Bush were able to agree on an agenda to address
North Korean nuclear ambitions.
While in Santiago, in addition to meeting President Roh, President
Bush had bilateral meetings with Chinese President Hu Jintao,
Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Japan's Prime Minister,
Junichiro Koizumi. There seems to be a consensus that the partners
in the Six-Party talks with North Korea would be united in seeking
an end to Pyongyang's nuclear program. And perhaps President Roh
came away understanding that there is a difference between patience
and firmness on the nuclear issue and a "hard line."
It is important to
understand that there are limits to the willingness of the United
States government in reaching an agreement with North Korea on an
aid package. President Bush has said on several occasions that he
has no intention of attacking North Korea. The United States has
aligned itself with China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia in a
united effort. As President Bush put it in Santiago, "the message
is clear: 'Mr. Kim Jong Il, get rid of your nuclear weapons
program.'" Indeed, if Pyongyang can work with the other regional
powers, it will find itself getting help from its five negotiating
partners as well as European and Latin American
countries.
Still, at times
there are differences in approach between President Roh Moo-hyun
and President Bush. In the November 12 speech in Los Angeles,
President Roh urged the United States not to take a harder line
against North Korea. From the standpoint of the United States,
however, a policy insisting that aid will be forthcoming only when
there is a verifiable end to Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is
not a hard line, it is realistic. And there are no threats coming
from Washington, only a patient approach that waits for Kim Jong Il
to enter into serious negotiations.
Consider the
American point of view, and that of Japan. Years of inducements to
North Korea in the form of food aid, fuel oil, financial
assistance, development projects like the Kumgang Mountain Project,
and the construction of road and rail links have not led Pyongyang
to renounce its nuclear weapons program. Indeed, while part of the
KEDO process, Pyongyang developed a secret highly enriched uranium
program to build nuclear weapons. And bilateral discussions between
North Korea and other countries, including Russia, Japan, the
United States, and South Korea, went nowhere.
By the last year of
the first Bush Administration a fresh deal was put on the table
using a regional approachthe Six Party Talks. And President Bush
said a number of times that he wants a peaceful, negotiated
settlement with North Korea. Furthermore, unlike the way
negotiations went with the North in 1993, China is now part of the
process. Beijing realizes that its own security interests require
that North Korea ends its nuclear-weapons program. Otherwise China
could face a Japan that seeks a stronger military armed with its
own nuclear weapons, something that makes Beijing
uncomfortable.
Mr. Kim Jong Il
knows that a package of aid is on the table with security
guarantees. If he also insists that the United States sign some
form of "non-aggression pact," negotiations will go nowhere. The
United States has never signed such a pact in its history.
President Bush has said a number of times that he has no intention
of initiating force against North Korea. And Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld, speaking in Japan, told Japanese officials that any
security promises between the United States and North Korea will
not affect the American commitment to defend Japan or "in any way
undermine our (the U.S.'s) agreement with Japan." Thus, Mr. Kim, in
Pyongyang, knows that the outlines of some security guarantees are
on the table. The key to any negotiation, however, will be the
ability of the partners to verify that Pyongyang has given up its
nuclear arms program.
On Monday, November
22, while speaking in Honolulu on the way home from Chile,
President Roh urged North Korea to show sincerity in its dealings
at the Six-Party Talks. It seems, therefore, that Presidents' Roh
and Bush came to a meeting of the minds in Santiago.
Negotiations with
North Korea will still be slow. And I doubt that there will be
movement before the American Presidential inauguration on January
20, 2005. Even then, a new foreign policy team must be confirmed by
the United States Senate. But there is strong continuity of policy
between the first four years of the Bush Administration and his
second term. In the American Congress, there is firm resolve that
no payments or "inducements" go to North Korea without the ability
to verify the end of North Korea's nuclear program. This is reality
in American politics, and it seems that all parties left Chile with
this understanding.
Larry M.
Wortzel is vice president for foreign policy and
defense studies at The Heritage Foundation.