During the summer, television networks don't seem to
discriminate in airing re-runs. The miserable shows get re-aired
along with the good ones. Washington seems to have the same mindset
when it comes to policy reruns. Failed policies are as likely to be
reinstituted as successful ones. Case in point: petroleum
regulation and the "windfall profits" tax.
In a ritual as predictable as Donald Trump firing an eager
go-getter, Congress demands testimony from oil executives and
threatens additional taxes and price regulations whenever petroleum
prices rise. It's an old tradition - and one based on economic
ignorance.
Bowing to flawed thinking and the popular will, President Nixon
(with Congress) instituted general price controls in 1973. It was a
vain attempt to control inflation. After the predictable shortages
arose, price controls were eliminated on everything except
petroleum products and natural gas. Not eliminating those price
controls created the energy crisis of the 1970s and the memorable
gas lines.
Yes, the Arab oil embargo reduced the world supply of petroleum.
Yes, worldwide economic growth created more demand. However,
increasing demand and shrinking supply cause higher prices, not gas
lines.
This isn't a mystery. Around chapter five in every "principles
of economics" class, the impacts of price ceilings are explained.
They lead to shortages. The logic is clear, and the evidence is
consistent and overwhelming. When Reagan eliminated petroleum price
controls in 1981, the shortages and the gas lines disappeared.
Why would politicians use such tried-and-failed policies? Maybe
because the public rarely understands who's actually at fault.
Surveys taken in the 1970s about the energy crisis bear this out.
Who did the respondents blame? Not Washington for its Byzantine
price and allocation controls. They didn't even blame OPEC. They
blamed "Big Oil."
In The Myth of the Rational Voter, economics professor Bryan
Caplan exposes the discouraging gap between popular conceptions of
economics and economic reality. With that in mind, it isn't
surprising that the same 1970s-era surveys showing the energy
crisis to be the biggest problem also showed the most popular
solutions were those that would amplify the very things causing the
crisis. A large majority wanted more stringent price controls. A
near majority even wanted to issue ration coupons.
Then as now, a weakening dollar and strong economies overseas
led to higher petroleum prices. Then as now, the popular culprits
were the oil companies. In a result especially depressing to those
of us who spent decades teaching chapter five, a recent Gallup
survey found that 70 percent of Americans want Washington to
implement price controls to counter the high price of petroleum.
Even more unnerving is the 64 percent of Americans who think you
can cut the price of gasoline by imposing "a significant additional
tax on oil company profits."
In a bad-policy rerun, Congress, blaming high prices on high
profits, again demands testimony from oil-company executives and
threatens regulations and additional taxes. Though consumers may
not realize it, none of this will help them.
Today's high oil-company profits are largely caused by high
prices on the petroleum they pump from their own reserves. Anybody
who owns petroleum reserves, whether it's Exxon, Venezuela, Iran,
widows, orphans or the University of Texas, gets more money when
petroleum prices rise.
These high prices are the result of straight-forward economics:
Demand has increased more than supply. For instance, China's demand
for petroleum has doubled in just the last 10 years. Unless and
until supply catches up, no regulations, taxes or histrionics will
bring gas prices down.
Penalizing Americans for having the foresight to buy and develop
oil reserves (which an additional profits tax would do), ensures
that a larger percentage of these valuable resources will be
controlled by the likes of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A political
truth-in-advertising law would require disclosing this fact when
legislators propose additional profit taxes on oil companies.
Expecting politicians to ignore popular opinion may be asking
too much. But if our leaders are going to read the polls, maybe
they should read some from the 1970s and then look at the careers
of those who followed them.
None of the presidents who enforced energy price controls and
windfall profits taxes was re-elected. Yet the president who
eliminated them served two terms and remains one of the most
respected figures in American history. Which re-run would you
want?
David W. Kreutzer is senior policy analyst at The Heritage
Foundation.