What do you do when confronted by a bully? The first lesson you
learn as a child in the school yard is that reasoning and turning
the other cheek unfortunately does not work very well, and will
only get you a reputation as an easy victim. On the other hand,
knocking someone's teeth out because of a mean taunt is not the way
to go either. Producing an immediate, proportionate response is a
skill you have to learn.
In the schoolyard of international politics, much the same rules
apply. Some countries tend to behave like bullies. The more other
nations try to accommodate them in the cause of getting along, the
more they will bully. The Soviet Union - and Russia today had long
history of subtle and not-so-subtle aggression towards its much
smaller neighbors - "the garden of the red czars" was one of the
names for the Soviet empire and its "near abroad."
Unfortunately for the Russian leadership, many of those smaller
neighbors are acquiring new, powerful friends and therefore a
measure of protection. Bullies never like this. Three small former
Soviet republics, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, are now members of
NATO, allies of the United States, Canada and almost all of Europe.
Other former Soviet republics are applying to follow their lead,
hoping to escape Russian dominance.
At the NATO summit in Bucharest in early April, the United States
pressed for giving Georgia and Ukraine Membership Action Plans
(MAPs) with a view to future NATO membership. Such plans were
granted to Albania, Macedonia and Croatia, who have also been
knocking on NATO's door. Unfortunately, Russian lobbying - maybe
threats would be a better word - stopped the Europeans from
endorsing MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine. The NATO summit communique
promised action in the short-term future, but that was as far as it
went. Russian bullying worked on this occasion.
But that's not the end of the story. Russia has also managed to
entangle the future of Georgia with the status of Kosovo, the small
Balkan nation that in February declared independence from Russia's
ally Serbia. If the international community recognized Kosovo's
declaration of independence, so the Russian government fumed,
Moscow would go ahead and recognize the independence of Russian
minority enclaves in former Soviet republics, such as Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. These are part of Georgia and have been beset by
Russian "peacekeeping" troops since the civil wars that followed
the collapse of the Soviet Union. The post-Soviet space is littered
with unresolved conflicts of this kind.
In the case of Kosovo's independence, Europe and the United States
had enough at stake not to allow the Russian threats to stop their
recognition of Kosovo. Almost a decade of involvement in the
Balkans with no end in sight prompted the international community
to support Kosovo, in the hope that some momentum for
reconstruction and economic development could be gained and
eventually allow international peacekeepers to come home. In the
case of the United States, we still have 7,000 troops stationed in
Kosovo on an ongoing basis.
Last week, Russia made its move - which was actually not as bad as
might have been expected. It announced the opening of Russian
consulates in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and offered to issue
passports to any ethnic Russian who desired it and who would then
be able to travel visa free across the border. (At least the
Russian response was mainly of a diplomatic nature; President
Vladimir Putin at one point even threatened Ukraine with nuclear
war, if Ukraine persisted in seeking NATO membership.) More
menacingly, Russia shot down a Georgian unmanned aerial vehicle on
April 20.
Russia's maneuvers deserve a clear and firm response, first of all
on principle. The United States and Europe need to point out to the
Russian government that the situations in Kosovo and in the
Georgian minority enclaves are by no means parallel. Georgia has at
no time tried to ethnically cleanse and mass murder its Russian
minorities, as Serbia tried to do with its Albanian population in
Kosovo. This action was stopped by NATO in 1999, and it lost Serbia
every moral right to govern the Kosovars.
Second, NATO needs to revisit the question of MAPs for Georgia and
Ukraine as soon as possible, in order to reverse the decision taken
in Bucharest. Bending to Russian pressure was wrong in the first
place, and push-back in just such a measured and responsible form
is certainly justified. Who knows, it might even teach the Russian
bullies a lesson.
Helle Dale is director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
First appeared in the Washington Times