Reps. Henry Waxman and Ed Markey did a little digging last week.
It was the kind of thoughtful investigative work our lawmakers
should do more often.
What Waxman and Markey did was ask The Heritage Foundation and
six other outfits about the methodology they used in estimating the
cost of their cap-and-trade bill. The bill authors sent an
identical list of 33 methodological questions to each group probing
both the analytical techniques used and the range of inquiry.
As they explained in their cover letter, they wanted to spark a
transparent conversation about how these measures would affect
American families. "[T]his transparency will allow members of
Congress and the public to put model results in appropriate
context."
We were delighted to engage. Our study had reached conclusions
not at all pleasant to the eyes of the bill sponsors. It showed
that, when all the tax impacts were added up, the Waxman-Markey
legislation would cost the average per-family-of-four cost almost
$3,000 per year. Over the 2012-2035 time period, we forecast total
per-family-of-four costs would tally roughly $71,500.
And economic costs extended far beyond that. Even after
accounting for "green job" creation, our analysis predicted net job
losses approaching 1.9 million in 2012 and 2.5 million by 2035. The
manufacturing sector alone would lose 1.4 million jobs by 2035.
Doubtless these findings brought little joy to Congressmen
Waxman and Markey. Yet the questions they asked about our research
revealed no pique. Rather, they were totally legitimate.
For example, they asked if our model took into account an
increase in private sector investments in research and development
that would be sparked by the legislation and a new carbon market.
Answer: It did. Our model incorporates both short and long-run
responses to higher energy prices.
They also asked if we had considered the benefits of reductions
in air pollution. Answer: We had not, just as we had not analyzed
the impact of moving production from relatively clean domestic
manufacturing plants to less clean production in the developing
world.
This back and forth is not only a civic obligation as Congress
debates this legislation, but it is also a useful exercise in
transparency. There has been a shroud of secrecy over negotiations
on energy taxes, health care reform and stimulus legislation this
year. Closed door meetings and private backroom negotiations have
largely prevailed, while the general public and most of Congress
are left outside.
We commend Chairman Waxman and Chairman Markey for opening these
doors. We humbly believe that our research models are second to
none, and welcome the chance to share our research and results with
anyone who is interested, regardless of their political
affiliation.
But we are but one voice in this debate, and we welcome this
opportunity to put all economic models on the table, with their
supporting data, and the answers to the Chairmen's questions.
The Heritage Foundation has devoted a space on our website,
www.heritage.org, where we will post our answers in their entirety.
We have formally invited the other organizations who were asked
these questions to allow us to post their responses as well, in the
interest of full transparency.
We are also inviting three other prominent organizations-the
Brookings Institution, the Political Economy Research Institute,
and the Congressional Budget Office-to voluntarily send us their
responses to these questions so that no organization is excluded
from this open and transparent discussion.
We're not sure why the Congressmen didn't send the questionnaire
to these outfits. They were prominently engaged in the
debate-especially the CBO, whose study (an accounting-type analysis
rather than a comprehensive, econometric analysis) delivered far
lower cost estimates and was cited frequently and uncritically by
the bill's supporters.
Now that the rush to mark-up has passed, we can take time to let
in some sunshine. As Sir Winston Churchill once said: "Now this is
not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is,
perhaps, the end of the beginning."
Let's hope the Waxman-Markey questionnaire signals that a
serious debate can now take place. American families deserve to be
kept fully apprised of how Congress intends to act, and how those
actions will most likely affect their pocketbooks, their jobs, and
their lives.
David W. Kreutzer is senior policy
analyst at The Heritage Foundation.