The United States is the world's lone superpower,
the world's largest economy, the largest exporter, largest
importer, and largest open market. Therefore, it follows that the
United States has the greatest impact on the world when it comes to
global trade.
THE FAILURE IN SEATTLE
It
is well worth taking a closer look at the Seattle meeting because
it illuminates some of the problems we face.
The
announced purpose of the meeting was admirable: to launch a new
round of global trade talks. Instead, what happened was a setback
for the global trading system and for U.S. leadership. There are
some important lessons here.
The
first is that U.S. preparation for the meeting was either
inadequate, went awry, or did not recognize that perhaps many
countries were still digesting the Uruguay Round and were not ready
for a new one. The result was that the United States was isolated
in pushing its agenda but, nevertheless, decided to bulldoze its
way through. Leadership by bulldozing did not work in Seattle and
will not work in the future.
The
substance of the U. S. agenda was another problem. We wanted the
new round to focus on services and agriculture and to create a
working group on labor standards. Our usual allies in trade
matters--Europe, Japan, and Canada--were not with us, and neither
were the developing countries. The reasons: Our European and
Japanese colleagues seem to have backtracked on the commitment made
in the Uruguay Round to include agricultural products in the next
one. And, the developing countries are dead set against including
labor standards in trade agreements because they think we are
creating a new barrier against them and their products.
The
current Administration's insistence that labor and environmental
standards be a part of any trade agreement has been roundly
resisted for the past eight years by the developing countries. The
antagonism and fear have been building and finally burst into the
open at the Seattle meeting.
Adding to the impending tragedy, President
Clinton stated in an interview just prior to his arrival at the
meeting that he could envision sanctions against countries that did
not comply with labor standards. This sent shivers down the
collective spines of the developing countries. Until their fears
can be alleviated, any hopes for a new round are decidedly dim. A
further complication: The WTO team in charge of the meeting were
mostly new to their roles and probably not as well prepared as they
might have otherwise been. The new Secretary General had been
chosen only a few months before, after a protracted battle, and his
deputies were also new to their positions.
The
coup de grace was the protests that engulfed the meeting--protests
against globalization and transnational companies, among other
things. The protest group included unions, environmental groups,
some religious organizations, consumer groups, and anarchists. The
skirmishes and noise surrounding the meeting echoed around the
globe. The coalition appeared again at the IMF and World Bank
meetings in Washington, D.C., in the spring and is expected next
month at the Republican and Democratic party conventions. This
coalition has gained traction and is here to stay.
10 Steps to Consider
Against this background, we are now
approaching an important national election--presidential and
congressional--an election that could determine the direction of
our country for a generation. After the results are in, what should
U.S. policymakers do? Here are 10 key steps for consideration:
- Develop a new style of U.S.
leadership.
We have been criticized in recent years
for a tendency toward hegemony. I do not believe this to be true,
but I do think some of our national leaders have been too willing
and too quick to tell other countries what to do and how to do it.
This approach may have been more workable in the days following
World War II, when the United States was supremely dominant. Then,
there were fewer than 50 countries in the world. Today, although we
are the only superpower, there are now nearly 200 countries in the
world, many of which have great national pride, and all of which
want a piece of the economic action. It, therefore, follows that
U.S. power and influence, while still great, have been diluted.
And, it follows further that simply dictating to other
countries--the bulldozer style of leadership--does not work. We
need a more collegial and inclusive style, with more emphasis on
consulting with others, recognizing their needs, searching for
common ground, and building consensus. The United States must
repair and rebuild many relationships around the world and set a
new tone for the future. Consultation and consensus building takes
time, which may contradict our American impatience for results.
Still, we should do it.
We must also be clear: A different
leadership style does not mean that we would back away from our
principles or from our objectives. It does not mean that we would
cave under pressure from others. What it does suggest is that our
style of dealing with others would shift from overbearing to
collegial.
The same rationale applies to our trade
negotiating posture, which has become overly confrontational. Why
do we behave this way? One reason is that some constituencies want
our negotiators to talk and act tough. Perhaps another reason is we
have placed lawyers trained as litigators in trade-negotiating
roles. They have been very talented people who have performed well.
But the litigation mindset is "win-lose," where somebody wins and
somebody loses. This creates resentment. A better result is where
each side feels that it has won. That's "win-win." People leave
happier and more willing to come back to the table the next
time.
As a key part of our changing leadership
posture, the Administration and the Congress would be well advised
to resist the temptation to act unilaterally, in particular when
sanctions are involved. We have learned over the year--and there is
research to document this--that using economic sanctions to achieve
a non-economic objective generally doesn't produce the desired
result, and we damage ourselves in the process.
- Restore fast-track negotiating
authority.
Our current lack of fast-track authority
is a disincentive for others to negotiate with us, especially in a
multilateral context. The next President should seek congressional
approval at the beginning of the new Administration.
- Take labor and environmental standards as
part of trade agreements off the table.
It is the only way to get anything moving
again multilaterally. Having said this, I hasten to add that these
issues are important and must be taken seriously. But, they should
be dealt with in venues other than trade agreements.
Here is the predicament. On the one hand
there are the free traders who want to lower barriers and expand
trade in the interests of more economic growth and prosperity. On
the other hand, other constituencies--notably unions and
environmental activists--insist upon the need for labor and
environmental standards in trade agreements. The unions believe
U.S. jobs need protection from the advantage that low-wage
countries may have. The environmentalists believe that economic
activity should not outrun environmental protection around the
globe. These constituencies have political clout, especially with
the current U.S. administration. Trouble is, their objectives clash
with the needs of developing countries working to raise living
standards, eradicate poverty, and fight disease. Those countries
think we are trying to erect barriers to their exports and impede
their development. As long as they fear us, it will be difficult to
get anything going multilaterally.
There is no easy answer to this global
political dilemma. But one thing is clear: We must be more creative
in finding common ground instead of just locking horns. At the very
least, the different constituencies--labor, business, environment,
governments--need to start to reason together.
For our part in the United States, we must
admit that we no longer have a strong consensus for free trade.
That consensus needs rebuilding. Education and explanation have not
been a consistent part of the debate. Business people and others
who believe in more and freer trade have not been effective enough
at documenting why our society and others around the world are
helped by it. Another missing element is a U.S. President who
articulates the rationale and stands firmly behind it. The
leadership of the new President can make a difference.
- Recognize the potency of the
anti-globalization coalition and search for new approaches to
answering its concerns.
There are worries about the borderless
world--that "transnational companies" will become too powerful and
that globalization is creating an imbalance between economic growth
and social objectives, such as human rights, labor standards, the
environment, and poverty reduction.
New ideas and approaches are at a premium
here and the search has barely begun. It is suggested that the
International Labor Organization (ILO) is the appropriate venue to
work toward global labor standards. On the environmental front,
there is no obvious organization to which to turn. One idea: A
neutral organization, such as the OECD, could assemble a group
concerned with global environmental protection. However it is
accomplished at some point, those on all sides must begin to talk
with each other.
- Push for the free trade area of the
Americas and support the expansion of other regional free trade
areas and liaisons.
Free trade areas and bilateral agreements
have sprung up all around the world during the past decade. The
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has had stunning
success, so has the European Union, and Mercosur is promising. The
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum's (APEC) move toward trade
liberalization could have useful results. Free trade liaisons have
crisscrossed continents and oceans--Europe with Mexico, Chile with
a variety of countries, Japan in talks with Canada.
The United States should support these
efforts because of this simple philosophy: The more ways there are
to free up markets and expand trade, the better off we all will be.
The regional groupings do not countermand the global multilateral
process; they reinforce our vision of linking the globe in free
trade. And, it is worth noting that the regional efforts seem not
to draw the ire of the anti-globalization coalition the way the WTO
process has.
Of special importance to us is our
hemisphere. It was the vision of Presidents Reagan and Bush to link
the hemisphere in free trade. The NAFTA, negotiated in 1992, under
President Bush, was a major first step. Now in its sixth year, it
boasts success for all three countries: Canada and Mexico are now
the number one and two trading partners of the United States. In
1992, Chile was promised the next place in NAFTA by President Bush.
President Clinton agreed, but now seven years later, nothing has
happened.
In 1994, President Clinton hosted the
Miami summit, at which the 34 heads of state of the hemisphere's
democracies agreed to implement a free trade area (FTAA) by 2005.
After that, the idea of a free trade area in the hemisphere dropped
off our radar screen, and the United States pulled back from its
leadership role. Nonetheless, the FTAA process has inched forward,
but the tough issues have not been addressed, in large measure
because the U.S. government lacked fast-track negotiating authority
and because of the inclusion of labor and environmental issues.
When fast-track negotiating authority is
restored, the United States will have the opportunity to push for
free trade in the hemisphere again and make the FTAA a reality. In
addition, our promise to Chile should be honored. U.S. credibility
and leadership are diminished when our government doesn't keep its
word.
- Endeavor to make the WTO work more
effectively.
The WTO is a consensus organization with
137 members and 23 more in the accession process. It is not easy to
run a large organization by consensus. However, I have looked at
other multilateral organizations, such as the U.N. and the IMF, and
can find no other model that constitutes a better way. So, our
objective should be to make the current system work as effectively
as possible. A new style of U.S. leadership could certainly make a
difference.
The WTO must rebuild its credibility in
the aftermath of Seattle. There are a variety of ways to do
this--an educational process, for one, aimed at better global
understanding of what The WTO's mission and activities are, and for
another, more transparency in WTO deliberations. In addition,
beefing up technical assistance to developing countries could be
fruitful. The WTO now has a small technical assistance fund to help
those countries implement their trade obligations. Perhaps a
private-sector technical assistance fund, with contributions from
global companies, could be initiated to further this effort and
help to blunt the fears of developing countries.
Another approach to consider other than
re-introducing the idea of a new round: advance trade
multilaterally, sector by sector.
In the Uruguay Round, the United States
pushed hard for the strengthened dispute settlement mechanism,
which went into effect when GATT was transformed into the WTO. The
new process has generally worked. The United States is its biggest
user, bringing 53 cases and winning most of them. However, there is
a major concern: What happens when a large trading country does not
abide by the outcome of a dispute settlement decision? In the cases
about bananas and hormone-treated beef, which the United States and
others brought against Europe's practices, the outcomes have been
against Europe. In both cases, Europe has not complied. More
recently, the United States has lost a case brought by Europe
regarding the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC). We have modified FSC
and are working to pass the modification into law before October 1,
2000, the end of the reasonable period for implementation. If the
modification is not in place, the United States may find itself in
a non-compliance mode. And not incidentally, Europe does not buy
our solution for compliance. The plot thickens and the dilemma
remains.
- Understand the new Europe and manage
the relationship accordingly.
The United States has long had a special
relationship with Europe. European companies are the largest
investors in the United States. But we must understand that Europe
has changed, and the old paradigms in the relationship may no
longer apply. The European Community now has fifteen members and
intends to expand further. It has its own concerns--the new
monetary union and its own governance, high unemployment in some
countries, and the need for restructuring. Today's Europe wants
global recognition of its own and does not want to be viewed as
dependent upon or co-opted by the United States. One manifestation
is our increasingly acrimonious trade relationship. Besides bananas
and hormone-treated beef and our long-standing disagreement over
agricultural subsidies, we have differences over aircraft noise,
Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs), and Airbus subsidies, to
name a few. The search for common ground has become more complex,
and we should recognize this and view the relationship through
different eyes.
One approach: Work on eliminating
barriers, sector by sector, starting with something on which we can
agree.
- Continue to support China's entry into the
WTO and monitor implementation of the agreement.
The United States has supported China's
entry into the WTO. This is the world's fastest-growing large
economy. Enormous change and development are going on in that
country, and it is crucial that China belong to the WTO and become
more integrated into the international community.
We also support granting permanent normal
trading relations (PNTR) for China, something we must do, according
to WTO rules, if we are to obtain the full benefits that come with
China's accession. The bill granting PNTR passed the House,
237-197, in May 2000, with Republican votes providing the healthy
margin. The companion bill is awaiting action in the Senate, and
passage is hoped for after the August recess. Worst case, the bill
would be burdened by amendments, go to conference, and then return
to both houses for another vote. The closer we come to the
election, the more difficult passage will become.
In any case, China is expected to join the
WTO shortly. After accession, we should recognize that China's
efforts to comply will probably be uneven. The central government
seems committed to keeping to the agreement and has undertaken an
extensive education process under the aegis of the State Council.
The difficulty will be in the provinces and locales where change
may be poorly understood or resisted. There may be some resistance
from the state-owned enterprises and from some state ministries, as
well. We should monitor the situation closely and assist the
process of implementation where we can.
It must be noted that the United States
has a plethora of issues and concerns regarding China. We must deal
with these issues wisely but we must not allow them to hold back
progress on trade and commerce.
- Urge Japan to continue restructuring to
achieve more economic growth, keep its market-opening commitments,
and advance its deregulation initiatives.
Japan has been in a recession for most of
the past decade. Their economy is still the world's second largest,
but the recession creates a disincentive for increased market
liberalization and prevents Japan from playing a more active role
in the global trading arena. Another result is that Japan is paying
less attention to keeping the market-opening commitments it has
already made in sectors such as flat glass and automobiles. A
healthier Japanese economy would boost world trade and would help
to bring down the trade imbalance--the U.S. deficit with Japan will
approach $80 billion this year.
- Allow the "new economy"--specifically, the
Internet, telecommunications, and e-commerce--to grow free of new
tariffs, duties, and regulatory encumbrances.
E-commerce is growing rapidly around the
globe, and more increases will come. These new technologies, and
the changes they are causing in many aspects of trade and commerce,
are moving too rapidly for governments, regulators, and
multilateral institutions to catch up. For now, we should let the
marketplace be the arbiter of these activities.
TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH GO HAND IN
HAND
Over
the past few centuries, trade and economic growth have gone hand in
hand with trade expansion leading the way. There was one exception,
during the first half of the last century when tariff protections
were in force by the United States and others. The result was that
exports and imports were dampened, and economic growth
suffered.
We
must expand global trade. It is a major way to ensure global
economic growth, well being, and prosperity. But, we must
understand and address the concerns of those who fear being left
behind. We are all inextricably linked today. World economies are
more integrated than ever before, thanks to the advances in
electronic and communications technologies.
Our
challenge is to convince the world that the power and stamina of
the U.S. economy is primarily the result of the disciplines, the
incentives, and the opportunities, which free markets protected by
democracy create. Our success can be replicated around the globe if
other countries will give free markets the credit they deserve and
the political credibility they require.
Benjamin Franklin is a hero of mine. One
of the many reasons is his philosophy about trade. "Trade," he
said, "never ruined any nation."
The Honorable Barbara
Hackman Franklin, a former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, is a
Distinguished Visiting Fellow at The Heritage Foundation.