Tonight, we are
engaging in the debate over what arms control advocates refer to as
the "weaponization of space." These advocates are arguing for a
policy that would jettison a number of important U.S. military
capabilities in space, including-but not limited to- anti-satellite
weapons, ballistic missile defenses, and ground attack weapons
systems.
The arguments in favor
of jettisoning these capabilities are fundamentally flawed.
They are flawed for one central reason. They rely on a definition
of the weaponization of space that is detached from
reality.
Arms control advocates
have created a make-believe world regarding the current military
space capabilities of the U.S. and other nations as the
foundation for their more specific arguments against the
capabilities that will serve the U.S. military, both in times of
peace and in time of war. In short, these advocates have
resorted to the time-honored tradition of pointing toward an
idealized outcome by defining the starting point in fictional
terms.
Five Attributes of the
Dream World of Space Arms Control Advocates
This debate, therefore,
must start with identifying the attributes of the make-believe
world arms control advocates have created. The attributes are five
in number and are as follows.
Attribute #1: Space is
not yet weaponized.
In order to argue
against a U.S. national security policy that would
prospectively weaponize space, it is essential to assert that space
is not yet weaponized and that U.S. defense programs, and only U.S.
defense programs, will initiate an arms race in space. Arms control
advocates cling tightly to this prospective view. For example,
Jeffrey Lewis of the Center for Defense Information authored a
publication last year entitled What if Space Were
Weaponized?
The problem with this
prospective view, of course, is that it is inaccurate. Space is
already heavily weaponized and has been since the dawn of the
space age. This occurred with German launches of armed V-2 rockets
at Great Britain during World War II.
Today, there are
intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched
ballistic missiles that are armed with the most destructive
explosives man has ever invented. These nuclear-armed weapons spend
a majority of their flight times in space.
These same ballistic
missile weapons systems consist of more than just the missiles
themselves. They depend on a variety of battle management, command
and control, and early warning elements that are integral parts of
the overall weapon system. Many of these assets are
space-based.
By way of example,
AEGIS weapons systems deployed on Navy surface ships consist of
much more than just the standard surface-to-air missiles. The
equivalent of the ballistic missile command and control and early
warning elements onboard AEGIS class ships have long been defined
as parts of the overall AEGIS weapons system. These include the
SPY-class radar, target acquisition subsystems, and command and
control elements. The same definition is appropriate for ballistic
missile weapons systems.
Finally, arms control
advocates are particularly concerned about the U.S. deploying
anti-satellite systems. Leaving aside the fact that the former
Soviet Union extensively tested a co-orbital
anti-satellite system, any state that possesses a
nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missile has an inherent
anti-satellite capability. Again, the fact is that space is already
weaponized.
Attribute #2: The U.S.
is not now militarily dominant in space.
Michael Krepon and
Christopher Clary of the Henry L. Stimson Center, both strong
opponents of space weaponization, co-authored a book in 2003
entitled Space Assurance or Space Dominance. The book is
predicated on the notion that U.S. policymakers face an
either/or choice between moving to reassure other states about the
U.S. military presence in space and dominating space. The
predicate assumes that the U.S. is not now militarily dominant
in space.
In fact, the U.S. is
the dominant military actor in space today. Thus, it is important
to understand what the arms control advocates are recommending
here. They are not demanding that the U.S. forgo provocative steps
in its military space program. They are demanding that the
U.S. abandon the position it currently occupies. It is an
argument for American weakness relative to today's
position.
This perspective
reminds me of the final episode of the Seinfeld sitcom and
the concept of the "guilty bystander." Those opposed to the
weaponization of space basically accept the proposition that the
U.S. is the guilty party just by standing where it is now, and has
been for several decades.
Attribute #3: Space is
a value, not a place.
The opponents of the
weaponization of space often describe space as an exemplar of a
"weapons-free zone," to use the term on the back cover of the DVD
"Arming the Heavens." Such terminology reveals the propensity of
arms control advocates to define space in value-laden terms, as a
place of high value precisely because it does not contain arms.
From this perspective, weaponizing space constitutes crossing
a threshold and is inherently violative of something
valuable.
Leaving aside the fact
that space is already a place that is heavily armed, as I alluded
to earlier, the propensity to define space as a value is wrong.
Space, first and foremost, is a place. The moral content of
any policy that uses space for a military or any other purpose is
dependent on the moral underpinnings of the policy. Put another
way, it is neither always necessarily wrong nor always
necessarily right to use space for military
purposes.
The just uses of the
military instrument depend, first, on the purposes for which it is
used and, second, on how it is used, not on the location of
military activities. If military actions are undertaken for
the right reason and by means appropriate to obtain the moral ends,
then these actions will be morally supportable, whether they take
place on land, at sea, in the air, or in space. Many of those
opposed to the weaponization of space essentially reject this
fundamental premise regarding the moral uses of
force.
Attribute #4: It is
U.S. actions that will provoke a space arms race, not the
inherent military advantages of controlling or denying access
to space.
As Michael Krepon and
Christopher Clary put it in their book, "Weaponization is
inevitable if the United States leads the way."
This assertion
effectively discounts the possibility that other states may
seek to place weapons in space in order to exploit space for their
own military purposes or deny other states access to space
simply because they see the inherent advantages in doing so. Yet
this outcome is possible in situations where the U.S. may not
even be directly involved.
Let's focus on the
example of anti-satellite weapons. Might China, for example,
use anti-satellite weapons to down Japanese or Taiwanese satellites
in the context of a military conflict? Both Japan and Taiwan have
satellites. Might a country like Iran in the future seek to destroy
an Israeli satellite? Israel also possesses a satellite today.
Of course, any number of states may seek to disable or destroy U.S.
military space systems of the classes the U.S. has deployed
for decades, which space weapon opponents erroneously describe as
non-weapon systems.
Nevertheless, opponents
of the weaponization of space focus the vast majority of their
criticism on U.S. space systems development programs. Soviet
anti-satellite programs of the Cold War era are mentioned in
passing and discounted. Reported Chinese interest in "killer"
microsatellites is dismissed entirely. Foreign satellites used
to support nuclear attack operations, including those that could be
used to inflict unprecedented destruction on U.S. territory, are
conveniently defined as non-weapons systems.
Why the heaping of
criticism on the U.S. and its military space program? There is no
intellectual justification for this bias.
Attribute #5: The
military does not need to have on hand the capability to respond to
enemy attacks on U.S. space-based assets or the use of
space-based assets by enemies to attack other targets.
Michael Krepon was
quoted in a recent article in The Washington Post as
stating, "Space was to be used for peaceful purposes, but if
someone messed with us, we couldn't allow that to
happen."
In effect, Mr. Krepon
and other critics of U.S. military space programs acknowledge there
may be an event in the future-an attack on U.S. satellites,
for example-that will require a military response. At the same
time, however, they ardently oppose the programs that will provide
future Presidents the tools they need to have an attractive array
of options for responding. What is their recommended response to,
say, a North Korean move to detonate a nuclear weapon in space to
disable numerous satellites of the U.S. and other
nations?
In short, they pretend
that these capabilities will somehow magically appear when they are
needed. In the meantime, the critics are working overtime to cancel
these programs. The general assertions that the U.S. "couldn't
allow that to happen" are simply not serious.
Designing a U.S.
Military Policy Toward Space That Is Based on Reality
If the U.S. is going to
make wise decisions about its military policy toward space and
space-based assets and activities, first and foremost that policy
must be grounded firmly in reality. Flawed assessments about
where the world is today regarding military capabilities in space
is all but certain to lead to flawed policies. The starting point
is to recognize the following five facts about military space
capabilities today.
Fact #1: Space is
already weaponized.
As catalogued earlier,
the U.S. and other states possess a wide array of capabilities to
use space to defend themselves and mount offensive operations.
No careful parsing of definitions can reverse this reality.
Further, there are good reasons for the U.S. to have weapons in
space. Supporting nuclear deterrence, defending valuable-but highly
vulnerable-assets in space, countering missile attack, and
projecting military power are just a few examples.
Fact #2: The U.S. does
not face an either/or choice between reassuring other states of its
intentions in space and space dominance.
A principled policy of
using U.S. space dominance to ensure freedom of space for
peaceful purposes is the better approach. This approach is the one
U.S. policymakers have established through the exercise of naval
power on the high seas. The U.S. dominance of the high seas is in
fact a source of reassurance to many nations, particularly
those using the seas to engage in international
commerce.
Fact #3: The morality
of weapons in space is derived from the ends for which they are
used and how they are used, not their existence.
There is nothing
immoral about weapons in space. By the same token, U.S.
policymakers need to be careful in terms of determining how and for
what ends such weapons will be used. My suggestion to those
concerned about the ramifications of military operations in,
around, and through space is to focus on employment policies and
not on their current effort to forbid the weapons and their
accompanying capabilities.
Fact #4: Dissuasion is
an option for confronting a space arms race.
Both the 2001
Quadrennial Defense Review of the Bush Administration and the 2002
Nuclear Posture Review describe the concept of dissuasion.
Dissuasion is a means for avoiding an arms race by convincing
would-be enemies of the U.S. that they have little hope of
competing effectively in such races in important areas. The concept
is based on the well-founded assumption that these would-be enemies
will engage in an arms race if they conclude they can win
it.
Given the existing
advantages the U.S. has in military space technologies and
capabilities, as well as the inherent importance to the military of
maintaining access to space and protecting valuable space
assets, dissuasion is a concept readily adaptable to military
space. If the U.S. military squanders its lead in military
space capabilities, it will invite the arms race that arms control
advocates say they wish to avoid.
Fact #5: The spiral
development approach to the acquisition of space weapons and other
systems can provide future Presidents with viable options for
confronting enemy attacks in, through, and around space.
Even many of those
opposed to the weaponization of space acknowledge that it is
possible that the U.S. and its friends and allies could be subject
to space-based attack. They also acknowledge that the U.S., to use
Michael Krepon's terminology, "couldn't allow that to happen."
Preventing that from happening means giving future Presidents
the military tools necessary to respond effectively.
The Department of
Defense is using the spiral development acquisition process in the
drive to obtain these tools. This concept, which seeks to field
systems with limited capabilities initially and improve them with
upgrades over time, has been used to field missile defense systems
in particular. The tool is readily adaptable to space systems but
will necessitate a different approach than in the past. Where the
U.S. has pursued large, expensive, and vulnerable space platforms,
which possess extended life-cycle times, in the past, it will need
to look at smaller, cheaper, and more survivable platforms in
the future.
Conclusion
Space is a place. It is part of the
geographic constant with which militaries have had to contend
from the dawn of civilization. As with any piece of geography,
space possesses unique characteristics that can provide distinct
advantages to the military that is able to exploit them.
Through its persistence
and creativity, the United States now finds itself in a
favorable position relative to other states regarding the use
of space for military purposes. Its lead, however, should not be
taken for granted. If the United States rests on its laurels and
squanders this advantage, it will certainly regret
it.
Indeed, much of the
rest of the world would likely regret it as well. The likelihood is
that today's emerging space powers-China, Iran, and North Korea, to
name several-are not likely to be the benign force that the United
States is today and will be in the future.
Baker
Spring is F. M. Kirby Research Fellow in National
Security Policy in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute
for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. These remarks
were prepared for delivery at a debate on the weaponization of
space sponsored by the World Affairs Council of
Philadelphia.