Without question the single most
underreported story to emerge in the wake of September 11 was the
non-use of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the
counter-terrorist response. With great fanfare, America's European
allies invoked Article V of the Treaty of Washington, which states
that an attack on one member of NATO should be construed as an
attack on all. This image of the Three Musketeers was quickly
belied by the American response to European overtures: Thanks, but
no thanks. Washington saw the alliance as simply not worth the
bother. The reasons behind this polite refusal should gravely
concern NATO proponents on both sides of the Atlantic.
Such
a public breakdown of the central relevance of NATO merely
confirmed what many of us have been warning for years. It signaled
that the long-term rot at the heart of NATO--the
burden-sharing/power-sharing controversy--has finally led to
unquestionable damage. For 50 years an unhealthy dynamic has
persisted, with America urging Europe to spend more for its
defense, the allies resenting perceived American bullying, and the
U.S. in turn resenting continual European inaction. During the Cold
War, the geopolitical reality ensured that America rightly defended
Europe as a key arena in its global contest with the Soviet Union,
regardless of anemic Western European defense spending. This was a
fact most Western European leaders were well aware of, allowing
them to generally disregard Washington's pleas for more equitable
burden-sharing. However, with the end of the Cold War and the
coming of the war against terror, America's geopolitical
imperatives have changed, while European defense spending habits
have not. The result has been an alliance that is in danger of not
being interoperable, that possesses a cumbersome decision-making
structure, and that places around 85 percent of the total NATO
capability on one pillar. It is little wonder that Washington
declined to use such a creaky defense edifice in meeting the most
significant geopolitical challenge of the new era.
Rather than continuing to score debating
points about the European failure to spend more than a pittance on
defense, a new proactive argument must be advanced in the place of
these old, stale nostrums if NATO is to survive and thrive in the
new era. From an American realist point of view, such a new
yardstick comes readily to hand. It is the bedrock notion of
American national interest; that is: What sort of NATO does the
U.S. want in the immediate future? The answer to this
first-principle question will provide the definitive answers to a
host of pressing issues now confronting the alliance. All too often
this subset of concerns--the Combined Joint Task Force mechanism
(CJTF), the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP),
NATO-Russia relations (NATO at 20 members), NATO enlargement--are
seen as separate matters, rather than parts of a whole. If it is
recognized that, at base, America wants NATO to 1) prove more
politically and strategically flexible in the new era and 2) not
encumber the U.S. when it chooses to act unilaterally, a new agenda
for NATO reform will flow naturally from these first principles.
Paradoxically, such an agenda also dovetails with European
strategic goals, and is rooted in the reality of the present. NATO
finds itself in the ruins of the burden-sharing/power-sharing
argument. For NATO to survive, it must transcend it.
For
in the new era, a two-tiered NATO is bound to emerge. While the
Article V commitment will remain the sacrosanct first tier of NATO,
it will function as a sort of life insurance, which while
important, is unlikely to be needed in the near term. The second,
more vibrant tier of the alliance will revolve around out-of-area
missions, with coalitions of the willing emerging from Brussels as
the likely military configuration of choice in the new era. This
reality, combined with these new first-principle imperatives, leads
to a clear picture of how NATO will need to be reformed to stay
relevant.
NATO's Combined Joint
Task Force (CJTF) Initiative
Given the above criteria, the Combined
Joint Task Force Initiative (CJTF) deserves enthusiastic NATO
support because it allows for greater alliance flexibility in both
decision-making and crisis-response. This corresponds entirely with
the new drive to make NATO more relevant to the realities of the
post-9/11 era. First endorsed at the Brussels NATO summit in
January 1994, the CJTF enables coalitions of the willing to meet
security challenges that do not threaten the primary security
interests of all alliance members. Up to now, NATO's ossified
decision-making structure allowed for only two political responses:
either a member state decided to fully engage in a military mission
or prevented one from occurring. CJTFs put a third option on the
political table, while retaining America's ability to prevent the
alliance from acting in ways contrary to seminal American national
interests by retaining its consensus-blocking power over the
alliance's operational and political directives. In an era where
American and European interests are at best complementary, but
certainly not identical, this "yes, but" option is imperative.
Rather than dragging member states into secondary interest missions
or forcing unopposed yet disinterested nations to prevent a mission
from occurring altogether, CJTFs provide NATO with a third
political answer through which both the European allies and the
U.S. can decide not to stand in the way of a mission yet opt not to
directly participate in it.
The
CJTF initiative also enhances flexibility in mission operations by
establishing flexible crisis response mechanisms. One such example
is the mobile command and control centers, which can be deployed in
territory or at sea with little local support and then vanish back
into NATO headquarters in Europe when the mission is complete. In
this way, NATO assets are retained, yet can be utilized as needed
for out-of-area missions. CJTFs provide the best mechanism for
conducting NATO coalitions of the willing in future out-of-area
missions, facilitating the second tier of NATO, which is crucial to
the survival of the alliance. Whether in the Balkans, the Caucasus,
or Central Asia, NATO will face threats that require both strategic
and political flexibility. CJTFs provide for this desperately
needed fluidity.
The
CJTF option has already proved useful. The Macedonian peacekeeping
mission, for example, has been a de facto CJTF, with the Europeans
contributing the vast majority of military forces, all of whom are
using common NATO wherewithal. This is as it should be, as the
crisis in Macedonia is undoubtedly of greater strategic importance
to countries such as Italy and Germany than to the United States,
which has been able to support the mission diplomatically without
being militarily encumbered. Similarly, the European Security and
Defense Policy is an institutionalized CJTF of sorts, working in
tandem with the CJTF initiative's goal of furthering alliance
flexibility.
European Security
and Defense Policy (ESDP)
The
ESDP initiative arose from a 1998 conference in Saint Malo, France,
at which European members of the alliance agreed to a proposal for
defense cooperation conducted through the European Union in
Brussels, the seat of European aspirations for greater unity and
cooperation. At base, the ESDP initiative sought to provide
Europeans with the military capability to conduct their own
missions. ESDP received a political boost following the
embarrassing military disparity revealed during the Kosovo air war,
during which U.S. intelligence assets identified almost all the
bombing targets in Serbia and Kosovo, U.S. aircraft flew two-thirds
of the strike missions, and nearly every precision-guided missile
was launched from an American aircraft. Technologically, the
European contribution to the allied effort was deficient due to a
lack of computerized weapons, night-vision equipment, and advanced
communications resources. Chastened, the EU convened at
the December 1999 Helsinki Summit to establish an institutional
framework for the practical implementation of ESDP. Participating
EU member states agreed that by 2003 they would be able, within 60
days of an order, to deploy a force of 60,000 rapid reaction troops
that could be sustained in theater for at least a year. The Rapid
Reaction Force (RRF) would possess the military ability to
undertake the full array of Petersburg tasks, ranging from
humanitarian aid to peacekeeping operations.
Despite absolutely no evidence that ESDP
has led to an increase in European defense spending, the U.S. should conditionally
support ESDP as part of the larger transatlantic reform initiative.
Through economies of scale alone, the European allies are likely to
marginally improve their moribund defense capabilities. While
Western Europe's defense budget is almost two-thirds that of
America's, it produces less than one-quarter of America's
deployable fighting strength. There is
no doubt that Europe spends far too little on its defense and that
this deficiency is at the root of much that ails NATO. It is
equally of little doubt that, given the financial strictures
imposed by the stability pact of the euro on deficit spending, the
political popularity in Europe of its over-generous safety net, and
the bureaucratic dominance of finance ministers in the larger
European states vis-à-vis defense ministers
(Eichel-Scharping, Fabius-Richard, Brown-Hoon), there is no
prospect of European defense spending significantly increasing in
the near term. The ESDP initiative should be viewed by American
policymakers as being a relatively minor but useful initiative that
may help slightly reduce the capability gap, all the while
accepting Europe's budgetary realities.
Even
here, caveats are necessary. U.S. support should be conditional,
resting on the assurance that NATO retains the de facto right of
first refusal in a crisis and the majority of planning remains
within the control of the alliance. ESDP should augment NATO, not
emerge as a rival to it. Clearly, if the European allies meet their
Helsinki requirements, ESDP will serve key U.S. and European
interests by making the alliance more flexible while not
threatening American dominance over transatlantic military
issues.
European nations are only now in the
process of adapting their militaries to the challenges of modern
warfare. Instead of maintaining obsolete Cold War force structures,
the Europeans must concentrate on buying unglamorous but essential
items that will correct their deficiencies in lift, logistics and
command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (C4I)
to make their forces capable of mastering the 21st century
battlefield. Through economies of scale, ESDP may be the only
practical hope for the Europeans to remain in the technological
game, allowing NATO to preserve a degree of interoperability, so
crucial to the genuine functioning of any military alliance.
America's greatest fear must be not that
Europe will do too much through ESDP, but that it will continue to
do too little. American policymakers are becoming impatient with
Europe's lackluster approach to shoring up their share of the NATO
burden. ESDP can be part of the transatlantic reform process
through forging a marginally more equitable capabilities
partnership between the U.S. and European members. Conditional
support of Europe's ESDP initiative fits in well with what should
be the two cardinal principles underlying American views of any
NATO reform: that it promotes alliance flexibility and does so
without significantly limiting American military options.
"NATO at 20"
In
recognition of their increasing strategic rapprochement, NATO and
Russia agreed this past December to move forward toward the
creation of a new NATO-Russian deliberative body, the NATO-Russia
Council. The Council, also known as "NATO at 20," aims to grant
Russia a closer role with the alliance through the establishment of
a joint decision-making forum to cope with a variety of common
security concerns, such as those relating to terrorism,
proliferation, and regional conflict response. A new institutional
relationship with Russia dovetails with overall American desires to
make the alliance more flexible and relevant in the post-9/11 era
by recognizing the broadened scope of the rapprochement between
Moscow and Washington. NATO hopes to flesh out the new initiative
by the May 2002 meeting of alliance ministers in Reykjavik,
Iceland.
Currently, disputes over the scope and the
power of the Council remain unresolved. The least sweeping proposal
on the table seeks to render the new Council as a replica of the
current Russia-NATO permanent joint council, amounting to little
more than a talking shop. The most sweeping option, initially
favored by Prime Minister Tony Blair of Great Britain, would allow
for direct Russian participation in NATO decision-making on a
semi-permanent basis, whenever certain issues, such as
non-proliferation, are discussed. Such a stance would give Russia a
semi-permanent role in the alliance, allowing it to obstruct many
fundamental aspects of NATO decision-making. Whereas the first
option fails to give NATO the added strategic flexibility closer
ties with Russia might bring, the second allows the Putin
government the prospect of hamstringing NATO decision-making. The
U.S. would be wise to reject both of these extremes, as they do not
enhance American strategic options.
Instead, NATO should adopt a prudent
middle ground that recognizes the potential for collaborative
opportunities with Russia, yet places safeguards on the scope of
Russian involvement with the alliance. Such a policy establishes an
issue-by-issue approach that would allow Russian participation in
NATO decision-making only when all NATO members deemed it
appropriate and only in reference to the specific issue at hand.
For example, if the 19 decided to take a decision about
proliferation matters regarding Iran, they could well collectively
conclude that Russian involvement served alliance interests. Russia
would then enter into NATO discussions on Iranian proliferation
with the same rights and privileges as any other NATO member for
the duration of that initiative. After a decision had been taken,
NATO would resume deliberations without any direct Russian
involvement.
To
ensure that this process would not be made at the crest of a very
slippery slope leading to NATO's obsolescence, the following
stipulations should be agreed upon by May. First, Russia must not
be able to block issues that involve military decisions. Second,
NATO must withhold from Russia the Article V guarantee reserved for
full NATO members. Third, NATO must retain its right of retrieval,
allowing the U.S. or any member of the alliance to withdraw an
issue from NATO deliberation if consensus is unattainable at the
"20" member gathering. Such safeguards will ward off any efforts to
encumber America in a decision-making quagmire.
By
following its new first principles regarding the alliance, the U.S.
should proceed cautiously and patiently, lest it sacrifice alliance
security in its haste to foster closer cooperation with Russia.
NATO-Russian relations are at their most promising, and closer ties
with Moscow should be viewed by American decision-makers as an
opportunity rather than as a problem. However, while NATO-Russian
relations are warming, it would be foolish to gamble NATO autonomy
on six months of Russian good behavior or, conversely, undermine
the burgeoning NATO-Russia relationship by failing to recognize the
evolution of the partnership.
NATO Expansion
As
NATO considers another round of enlargement this fall, it must
ensure that doing so contributes to this new strategic doctrine of
flexibility. Given the evolving two-tiered de facto structure of
the alliance, creating a larger pool of NATO countries should
further opportunities for the successful operation of coalitions of
the willing. But while the current yardsticks for new NATO
members--the Membership Action Plan (MAP) and the Partnership for
Peace (PfP) program--ensure that new members are functioning
democracies that share alliance values, maintain secure borders,
and attempt to develop interoperable forces, an additional standard
must be established. New NATO members should be brought into the
alliance only if they recognize that its remit runs beyond Article
V; that many of today's threats to transatlantic security come from
outside of Europe, and that they are both willing and able to
develop capabilities to allow them to contribute to coalition
operations out-of-area as well as on the Continent.
NATO's response to the terrorist attacks
against the United States on September 11 demonstrated that the
alliance has far too many members who are willing to sign bold
declarations, such as invoking Article V, but are then either
unwilling or unable to undertake substantive military action. If
the alliance is to make a meaningful contribution to transatlantic
security in the 21st century, it must be able to fight
collectively, not just sign pieces of paper. The alliance's
approach to expansion should not be to bring everybody into the
club and then try to mold them into good NATO members, but to help
the accession countries become fitting candidates prior to their
joining.
Current provisions of the MAP can be
better tailored to aid candidates in developing their force
abilities through emphasizing a sector-by-sector approach to
interoperability. As many of the current states in the queue
(Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia) are relatively small with
limited budgets and are unlikely to field a modern air force or
have advanced satellite reconnaissance capabilities in the near
future, these candidates should instead be judged on their ability
to develop resources that would be useful to future coalitions of
the willing, and the out-of-area missions they may undertake. For
example, ensuring that field hospitals, military police, rapid
reaction forces, and similar units have the appropriate training,
equipment, and deployment capabilities will be extremely relevant
to alliance needs. Doing less in terms of numbers of troops
deployed, but doing it at a higher technological level will ensure
alliance interoperability into the future. As long as entering
members begin to possess the mission operations ability and
willingness to countenance out-of-area missions, a large NATO
expansion, perhaps allowing for the Baltic states, Romania,
Bulgaria, and Slovenia, supports the underlying American first
principles of enhancing strategic flexibility while limiting the
ability of NATO to encumber the U.S. As many of the Central and
Eastern European states tend to politically be more in-sync with
America than with the Western Europeans, enlargement can be seen as
a way to significantly increase the number of possible partners for
the U.S. in conducting coalitions of the willing. Such an expansion
policy is an integral part of the program for overall NATO
reform.
Away from the old theology, towards a new
realism
The
rhetoric behind the burden-sharing/power-sharing debate, the snake
in the garden for NATO since its inception, has proven particularly
virulent since the advent of the war on terror. For NATO is nowhere
near as useless as its detractors suggest, nor is it as seminal as
its proponents blithely assert. What is needed is a new syntax to
discuss the post-9/11 alliance that moves away from the stale
theology that itself is impeding successful reform of NATO. A
clear-eyed realism must take the place of absolutist positions
about the alliance. In the new era, NATO will be an important
politico-military option on both American and European
policymakers' menus, while ceasing to be the only game in town.
Coalitions of the willing, both within and outside the alliance,
are destined to emerge as the military configuration of choice.
NATO, having proven remarkable adaptable throughout its history,
must again shed its skin, becoming more flexible and less
encumbering in order to function as a forum where coalitions of the
willing can be easily assembled between various members of the
transatlantic partnership. This is a more instrumentalist version
of the alliance that does away with much of the pseudo-sanctity
surrounding NATO, but practically will ensure its usefulness well
into the future. Such a coalition reform policy is perhaps the best
way to handle the drift in European-American relations, a process
that can only be managed if it is first acknowledged. On both sides
of the Atlantic, it is simply time to grow up about NATO.
John C. Hulsman,
Ph.D. is Research Fellow for European Affairs in
the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies at The Heritage Foundation. He spoke at the Bulgarian
Atlantic Club, Sofia, Bulgaria, on April 9, 2002.