The 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, which established
the European Economic Community, will take place the week
after next. There is no other case where a group of sovereign
states has delegated such significant prerogatives to a
transnational entity. That an undertaking of this sort has
survived for 50 years is remarkable enough. But, in addition, what
started as a club of six members now has 27, which is again an
external indicator of success. So deeply embedded is it in
Europe's collective consciousness that it is hard to imagine that
the European Union (EU) will not still be here when the time comes
for its centennial.
To understand the origins of this initiative, it is important to
appreciate how far behind the United States Europe remained in the
1950s. GDP per person was barely half American levels. The
modern mass-production methods that the U.S. had pioneered in
the first half of the 20th century had only begun to arrive in
Europe. Automobiles and modern household appliances, items that
typical American families already took for granted, were still
exceptional in Europe.
Fifty years later, the countries of Western Europe are within
hailing distance of the United States in terms of per capita GDP.
If one instead compares income per hour worked, France, Germany,
Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and Luxembourg have
surpassed the U.S. (The difference between the two measures, of
course, reflects the fact that Europeans work shorter weeks
and take longer holidays.) The dramatic transatlantic difference in
the quality of life that existed 50 years ago is effectively
gone.
Ideal Institutions
The institutions of European integration played a key role in
this transformation. They locked a peaceful Germany into
Europe, allowing that country's considerable industrial might to be
unleashed, something that France and other countries would not have
permitted otherwise. They led to the creation of the Common
Market, prompting an enormous expansion of trade and increases
in efficiency. With the Single Market Program in 1986, Europe
created a continental economy capable of supporting global
champions-firms with the scale and scope needed to compete
internationally. And with the advent of the euro, Europe banished
the inflation problem that plagued it for much of the 20th
century.
These arrangements were part of a larger constellation of
institutions ideally suited for the process of catching up to the
United States, what scholars sometimes call the institutions of
neocorporatism or the social market economy. Workers assured of
employment security and an extensive social safety net moderated
their wage demands while firms plowed their profits into
investment. Banks with long-term relationships to their industrial
clients provided patient finance. Cohesive employers
associations encouraged firms to invest in training
without fear that their skilled workers would be poached by
competitors. These institutions were ideally tailored to a period
when growth depended on high levels of investment and on exploiting
the backlog of technology that had developed in the first half of
the 20th century.
Critically, the different arrangements I have just described
were complementary. The effectiveness of one enhanced the
effectiveness of the others. Without patient banks and
cohesive employers associations, firms would not have been
able to make extensive investments in vocational and
apprenticeship training, whose payoff was delayed and would
have otherwise been difficult to appropriate. And without a system
of extensive vocation and apprenticeship training, the
advantages of bank-based finance and cohesive employers
associations would have been less. Thus, the parts of Europe's
economic and social model fit together in mutually supportive ways.
For half a century and more, they enhanced the economy's capacity
to deliver high-quality manufactured products, stable
employment, incremental innovation, and an equitable distribution
of income.
"Coordinated Capitalism"
To be sure, the security of private property rights and reliance
on the price mechanism were critical to Europe's success. But the
rapid growth of the postwar golden age depended on more than
just the free play of market forces; in addition it required a set
of norms and conventions, some informal, others embodied in law, to
coordinate the actions of the social partners and solve a set of
problems that decentralized markets could not. Hence the
"coordinated capitalism" of my subtitle.
This codified set of norms and understandings- what economists
mean when they refer to institutions-did not materialize
overnight. To a large extent it was inherited from the past. In
fact, the reason that inherited institutions could be so
effectively adapted to the needs of post-World War II growth was
precisely that the challenges of this period were not dissimilar
from those that had confronted Europe in earlier years. Modern
industry had developed later on the continent than in Britain
and the United States, at a time when the capital intensity of
industrial technology was greater. These more demanding capital
needs were dealt with by developing great banks capable of
mobilizing resources on a large scale. Late-industrializing
economies whose initial growth spurt depended as much on
assimilating and adapting existing technologies as on pioneering
new ones naturally developed systems of human capital
formation emphasizing apprenticeship training and vocational skills
as much as university education. As industrial production grew
more complex and industrial sectors grew increasingly
interdependent over the course of the 19th century, it had become
more pressing to get a range of industries up and running
simultaneously; hence the more prominent role of the state,
something that had been further expanded, for better or worse,
by fascist governments in the second half of the 1930s and by all
European governments, necessarily, during World War II.
Now, as the result of three decades of financial instability,
depression and war, Continental Europe had again fallen far behind
the technological leader, by this time the United States. There was
scope for fast growth and convergence simply by importing new
technologies and mass-production methods from America. And, under
these circumstances, it was fortunate that Europe had developed, as
a result of its earlier history, a set of institutions suitable for
doing just that-institutions better for emulation than innovation.
My point is that this was no coincidence. This particular
inheritance reflected Europe's particular history. This is how I
understand the golden age of economic growth, lasting from the
late 1940s through the early 1970s.
Part of the Problem
But the structures and institutions inherited from earlier
periods and elaborated after World War II were better suited to
incremental than radical innovation and to periods when the
challenge for growth was to fine-tune and apply existing
technologies rather than to fashion new ones out of whole cloth.
They were tailored to a world of limited international
competition and foreign investment, not to one of seamless
integration and intense cross-border competition. The
institutions of European integration were designed for a handful of
countries, not for a European Union of more than two dozen members
with diverse political cultures and very different visions of the
future. They were devised to achieve limited economic goals-the
expansion of heavy industry, the liberalization of trade, the
deregulation of product markets-not to push through wide-ranging
and socially invasive structural reforms. For better or worse,
these are the institutions that have been handed down to the
present day.
Once the backlog of technology was gone, growth became
increasingly dependent on innovation. And now the same
institutions that had been part of the solution became part of the
problem. Norms limiting wage differentials made it hard to offer
generous rewards to risk-taking entrepreneurs. Banks accustomed to
lending to familiar customers hesitated to take bets on unproven
technologies. Laws providing for employment security
discouraged start-ups, since investors in new firms that did
not pan out might end up with substantial liabilities to their
former workers. The high taxes needed to support an elaborate
welfare state made it hard to compete in a globalized world.
European societies appreciate the need for more flexible labor
markets, the development of securities markets, lower taxes, and
more efficient delivery of welfare-state services. But it is not
easy to restructure a system of interlocking parts.
One worries that the European Union is similarly a solution to
yesterday's problems. High inflation has been vanquished, but now a
diverse set of European countries suffer with the
one-size-fits-all monetary policy of the European Central
Bank. The efforts of the European Commission to advance the
so-called Lisbon Agenda of reforms intended to make Europe the
world's most competitive region by 2010 has been heavy on rhetoric
and short on accomplishment. Indeed, I would argue that the idea
that the Commission is supposed to point the way toward
productivity-enhancing reforms has had the effect of relieving
national governments of responsibility for doing so. And the
members' inability to agree on a constitution that would enhance
the powers of the European Parliament means that there is no one
capable of holding Commissioners accountable for their actions
and therefore no willingness to give the Commission meaningful
executive powers.
Update the EU for the 21st Century
The solution, in my view, is not to abolish the EU but to update
it for the 21st century. There needs to be a clear division of
responsibilities between the Union and the member states. Here what
economists call the theory of fiscal federalism points the
way. Policies toward issues where preferences are relatively
homogenous and there are efficiency advantages from
centralized provision should be provided by the EU. This argument
about the efficiency advantages of centralized provision suggests
that the EU should be responsible for Europe's border security
and competition policy. Virtually by definition, a single market
can have only a single competition policy. (After all, this is why,
in the U.S., we have an Interstate Commerce Commission.) And
individual European states have inadequate incentive to secure
their borders against illegal immigration or terrorist threats from
outside insofar as the Schengen Agreement permits free
mobility among the participating member states. Illegals can enter
through Italy but end up living in Germany. Insofar as Italy pays
the cost of patrolling its own shores, this creates a classic
free-rider problem and underprovision of internal security. These
are areas where, on efficiency grounds, the EU deserves a role.
In contrast, where efficiency is not enhanced by centralization
and preferences or problems differ, authority should reside with
the member states. I would argue that the member states should
assume responsibility for their own economic reforms. Each country
has its own distinctive economic structure and institutional
inheritance. Each needs different reforms. Making economic reform a
competence of the Union encourages one-size-fits-all advice and
allows governments to abrogate responsibility. Making clear
what the EU cannot do as well as what it can will put that
responsibility squarely where it belongs. Maybe it is time for a
new Treaty of Rome to make that assignment of responsibilities
clear.
At the national level, there are plenty of problems to address.
Unemployment is too high. Fiscal discipline is too weak. It is
unclear whether France and Germany are truly willing to embrace
market deregulation, not just in goods but also factor
services, and to accept the further intensification of product
market competition remains.
Looking further forward, a major challenge will be to cope with
an ageing population. The share of the elderly in the population of
the EU will double by 2050, reflecting a combination of continuing
increases in longevity and low birth rates. These may be global
trends, people living longer everywhere, but they are
especially pronounced in Europe. In 2050 the ratio of population
aged over 65 relative to those aged 15-64 will be nearly half again
as high as in the United States. Inevitably, a larger share of
European savings will have to go to support health care and
retirement benefits, implying much higher tax rates insofar as
these programs are mostly financed on a pay-as-you-go basis.
The U.S. deals with these problems partly by embracing
immigrants, who are disproportionately of working age. It has
higher labor force participation rates. In principle, Europe
could do likewise. It could change its tax and pension laws to
discourage early retirement. It could provide tax incentives and
child care to stimulate fertility, as France has successfully
done. It could admit Turkey to the EU and extend full freedom of
labor mobility to its residents. But Europe is less tolerant
of immigrant cultures. Its lower participation rates plausibly
reflect culture and norms as well as tax laws. Thus, it is not
clear that Europe will display the cultural and economic
flexibility needed to cope easily with its demographic future.
A Full Menu of Reform
So, in a month when we mark the EU's 50th anniversary, it is
worth remembering that Europe has a lot on its plate. It needs
further deregulation of labor and product markets. It needs
stronger incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship. It
needs more immigration-friendly policies. It needs lower tax rates
and more efficient delivery of public services. And it needs
to implement reforms in ways that are sensitive to the
institutional inheritance-that avoid excessive disruption to an
inherited system of interlocking parts-since such disruption would
provoke a backlash against reform. It needs to do these things in
ways that are sensitive to national circumstances, including
variations in that institutional inheritance, which is why I
believe that reform needs to bubble up from below rather than to be
directed from above-from Brussels. This is nothing if not a full
menu.
Barry Eichengreen, Ph.D., is the George C. Pardee and Helen
N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the
University of California, Berkeley, and author of the book The
European Economy Since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond
(Princeton University Press, 2007).