Delivered on February 26, 2007
This is my first trip to the country Mark Twain called "the
mother of history." Your land, your people, and your culture have
long captivated Americans, but they will be particularly
fascinating for a historian such as myself, who can still recall
our strained relations during the Cold War. Much has happened since
then to make those memories fade. Indeed, much has happened in just
the last year and half, with Prime Minister Singh's 2005 visit to
the United States, President Bush's March 2006 visit to India, and
the December 18 signing of U.S. legislation to allow for civil
nuclear trade with India.
President Bush is determined to build a strong partnership
with India based on what we already have in common-a common world
vision; common core values of freedom, democracy, trade, and
opportunity; and common threats from those who do not share these
values.
In fact, India has faced the scourge of terrorism for many, many
years. I would like to extend my sympathies to the government
and people of India, and especially to the families of the
victims, for the February 18 attack on "The Friendship Express"
that runs between India and Pakistan. We fully support the Indian
authorities in their efforts to track and bring to justice the
perpetrators of this despicable attack.
The fact that three days after the attack the foreign ministers
of India and Pakistan met in New Delhi and signed an agreement to
avoid nuclear accidents demonstrates that the terrorists will
never achieve their goals and that the people will never be swayed
by their murderous acts.
It is our common goals and objectives that are driving our two
countries to increase cooperation not only in the civil nuclear
arena, but also in defense, civil space programs, high-technology
trade, missile defense, agriculture, and a number of other areas.
Our space program and missile defense talks took on new urgency
after China launched an anti-satellite missile test last month.
Over the past decade, U.S. trade to India has tripled. The U.S.
government expects it to double again in a few years. And our
diplomats are negotiating the "123 agreement" to implement the
historic civilian nuclear deal between President Bush and Prime
Minister Singh.
This relationship has been growing for a long time, even despite
the period of nuclear escalations in this region and America's
engagement with Pakistan to fight the war on terrorism.
The fact that our strategic relationship has come so far in six
years is remarkable. It bodes well for the future. I am confident
it can survive any current strains for one reason: It is rooted in
the deep friendships that our peoples, and our businesses, have
nurtured. So where we may find we have differences, whether it
is over the U.S. relationship with Pakistan or India's pursuit of a
trilateral dialogue with China and Russia, we should address
these issues head-on.
I welcome this opportunity to take a critical look at our
"Partnership for the 21st Century." Specifically, I want to
talk about the U.S.-India economic and defense relationship, the
prospects for the civil nuclear deal taking effect, and India's
role in the region and the world.
Economic Relationship Growing
There is no question that the U.S.-India economic relationship
is strong. Last year, overall trade stood at some $32 billion, with
American exports to India rising by 26 percent. America imported
$21.8 billion worth of Indian apparel, textiles, gemstones,
and jewelry. We exported aircraft, business and
telecommunications equipment, chemicals, and other products to
India to the tune of almost $11 billion- making America India's
largest trading partner and India one of America's top export
destinations.
Much of this growth is due to the economic reforms that India
has put in place since the 1990s. American companies such as
Microsoft and Dell are investing more in India as well. Total
direct investment in 2006 is estimated at $11
billion-one-third of that amount originating in the U.S., making
America India's largest investment partner as well. India hopes to
target more foreign direct investment on infrastructure projects
that will make its economy even more attractive to American
firms.
India is demonstrating a new global economic presence as well.
This was most recently demonstrated by Tata Steel's $11
billion acquisition of the British steel giant, Corus.
But the benefits of all this growth have yet to spread across
the country. India needs to pick up the pace of reform. Faster
privatization; better enforcement of property rights; and
elimination of restrictive labor laws, high tariff rates, export
subsidies, and import taxes will allow the Indian economy
to achieve its full potential.
These steps will help prevent India's growth rate from stalling.
They also would help boost India's ranking in our flagship product,
the Index of Economic Freedom.
This year, we revised the Index to grade countries on a
scale from zero to 100 percent and to add a labor freedom factor.
You will be pleased to know that India has improved its score by
3.3 percent. And, for the first time, it has surpassed China. Yet
we believe India should come out much, much higher on the economic
freedom scale.
With India at only 55.6 percent free, the Federation of
Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry clearly has its work cut
out for it, and you can count on Heritage to continue encouraging
reform.
We aren't just looking outward at what other countries can
do. At Heritage, we are pressing our government to open its
markets by eliminating harmful subsidies and barriers to trade,
including those in agriculture that affect the U.S.-India economic
relationship. And we are pressing for an extension of trade
promotion authority that will enable the President to sign
even more free trade agreements.
Defense Cooperation
We have seen tremendous strides in the area of security
cooperation between our two countries in a relatively short period
of time. Washington and New Delhi signed a landmark defense
framework agreement in 2005 that calls for expanded joint military
exercises, increased defense-related trade, and establishment
of a defense and procurement production group.
In January, the U.S. transferred to New Delhi an amphibious
transport ship, the USS Trenton. I see that the transfer was
welcomed here in India; some of your own naval officials called it
a new era in naval cooperation. The United States has also offered
F/A-18 and F-16 aircraft with the possibility of co-production
arrangements, which could help India meet its advanced fighter jet
needs.
To strengthen our strategic relationship and put it on solid
footing, it is important that we establish healthy levels of
defense trade. In the past, Indian defense industrialists and
officials were dissuaded from buying American military hardware due
to concerns over the reliability of U.S. supply. The passage
of the civil nuclear cooperation legislation should assuage these
misgivings and open the door for a major boost in defense
trade.
We now have an opportunity to cooperate more deeply on missile
defense. Few should question the need for such strategic
cooperation, given North Korea's missile tests last July and
China's anti-satellite missile test in January. Our
cooperation would enhance security and enable India to assume a
critical stabilizing role in this region.
Of course, even as our strategic interests, economies, and
world views intersect more often, our leaders will not always
agree.
One of those areas of disagreement has been over America's
evolving relationship with Pakistan. The United States and India
appear to share the same strategic goal of a stable,
prosperous Pakistan. Yet we are likely to disagree from time to
time on the tactics to achieve this goal. It is understandable that
the willingness of the United States to transfer military
hardware to Pakistan, including F-16 fighter jets, would heighten
concern in New Delhi. Yet I would hope India understands why
it is important that the U.S. help Pakistan succeed in reaching
President Musharraf's goals of turning Pakistan into a moderate,
modern state.
Indians, after all, had to deal with terrorism long before we
Americans did. The horrible bombings on the Mumbai commuter trains
that killed nearly 200 last July, as well as last week's bombings,
highlight the threat we both share from terrorism. Yes, there
is much more the government of Pakistan must do to flush out and
extinguish those terrorist groups; and if our cooperation succeeds
in helping Musharraf do that, then it benefits India.
Cooperation on counterterrorism and nonproliferation are
the defining security issues for our time in history. Nations that
wish to live in peace cannot sit on the sidelines. Prime Minister
Singh is to be commended. His commitment to peace talks with
Pakistan has fostered progress. It demonstrates India's strong
desire to bring stability to the Subcontinent and beyond.
Civil Nuclear Cooperation
The civil nuclear deal marks a new era of trust and cooperation
and removes a long-standing source of tension between our capitals.
We at Heritage hosted Under Secretary Nick Burns when he
unveiled the details of that deal last March. Just nine months
later, on December 18, the President signed the Henry J. Hyde
United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006
into law.
Now, the deal has a few hurdles to clear before it can take
effect. The first is completion of the bilateral "123
agreement" governing civil nuclear trade. It is true that
negotiations on the agreement have not progressed very far, but I
am still optimistic, from the attitudes and support I see in
Washington, that our governments will finalize the agreement
soon.
Let me tell you why. Last year, amidst all the partisan
bickering in Washington, our legislative and executive branches
worked together rapidly to get this legislation passed. As a
long-time observer of Congress and a former diplomat in the State
Department, I cannot emphasize enough how remarkable this was.
Everyone in the United States recognizes the historic significance
of this deal. I think the same holds true in India.
In addition to the "123 agreement," we will need to get the
45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group to approve the civil nuclear
transfers. And, finally, India needs to complete a nuclear
safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
After all of these steps are completed, the package will again go
before the U.S. Congress for an up-or-down vote.
Those sound like major hurdles, but I see a great deal of
optimism that these steps can happen by early next year at the
latest. The most important factor is for Washington and New Delhi
to keep up the pace of cooperation and the good-faith
negotiations. Neither America nor India got everything they
wanted in this deal. That is typical, of course, for any diplomatic
effort that will usher in historical change. But let me make a few
observations about complaints that I have heard.
Some here in India were unhappy that Congress amended the Hyde
bill to urge India to cooperate in countering Iran's nuclear
ambitions. This language is in a non-binding Statement of Policy,
and it is meant to show how concerned Members of the U.S. Congress
are about Iran's nuclear activities.
Another complaint, this time from American nuclear experts, was
that the bill didn't require India to reduce its fissile material
production. Congress recognized that such a provision would have
killed the deal. It also understood the complex regional dynamics
India faces with nuclear-armed China and Pakistan as its
neighbors.
Finally, some in the U.S. feared the deal would weaken America's
hand in negotiating with North Korea and Iran over their nuclear
programs. But they seem to forget that when it comes to
nonproliferation, there can be no cookie-cutter solution, no
self-limiting one-size-fits-all policy. Our strategy needs to be
flexible enough to let us cooperate with like-minded partners like
India and, at the same time, isolate regimes that threaten our
security.
India's Regional and International
Role
Now let us look at India's role in the region and the world.
Everyone who studies India understands the thrust of its foreign
policy. India is looking outward in all directions,
cultivating partnerships that serve its interests.
That is understandable. It is what government is supposed to do.
And in this case, it mirrors the strategy President Bush adopted
when he first came to Washington. The old way of basing
partnerships solely on military or economic needs clearly failed to
bring about real peace, stability, or development.
On one level, this explains why New Delhi is hosting trilateral
meetings with Russia and China. Certainly, India and Russia have
had long relations, and India and China are in the midst of a
rapprochement that has led to the quadrupling of their trade
in just the last five years.
India also likely hopes to secure China and Russia's
support for its campaign to gain a seat on the U.N. Security
Council. India is, after all, the world's largest democracy. It
contributes significantly to U.N. peace operations. And it was the
first country to stand with us to help fund the new U.N.
Democracy Fund, a U.S. initiative and a personal priority for
me when I was at the State Department.
Yet I would like to sound a note of caution here. For one thing,
Washington would take exception to a China-India-Russia axis if it
was perceived that such a grouping was an effort to counter U.S.
influence in the region.
But there is another reason to be cautious. Strategic
partnerships must be girded by trust and common values; those
that are not are bound to fail. Beijing shares neither
India's vision of a peaceful world nor its values of freedom, human
rights, and nonproliferation. China continues to drag its feet in
resolving long-time border disputes with India. China is actively
engaging India's South Asian neighbors in military and economic
ways that may be destabilizing, such as setting up shop in ports in
countries that surround India.
Finally, both China and Russia are pursuing counterweights to
U.S. leadership and influence around the world. That is something
that is already a concern in America. Yet if, through the
trilateral meetings, India is somehow able to moderate that agenda
and not get caught up in the fog of anti-American rhetoric, then I
think Americans will be even more appreciative of our
friendship.
Conclusion
America and India both have much to gain from our growing
strategic relationship, but the benefits will not be ours alone.
Together, we can more easily show to the world the consummate value
of freedom and democracy. Together, we can better deal with
global terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Together, we can foster greater stability, development, and freedom
in Asia and beyond.
To paraphrase something philosopher Will Durant said about India
long ago, those things are not "mere trifles" ; they will be our
shared legacy.
Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D.,
is Vice President of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and
Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. He delivered
these remarks before the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce
and Industry in New Delhi, India, on February 26, 2007.