A current controversy in Washington, D.C.,
surrounds the possible leakage of sensitive missile technology to
China during American commercial use of Chinese satellite launch
services. The Clinton Administration has been quick to minimize the
likelihood that China would use such missile technology or know-how
to advance its military missile program. For example, on June 3,
1998, National Security Adviser Sandy Berger stated, "Satellites
exported to China for launch are not used for military purposes,
nor do they result in the transfer of missile technology." Yet,
according to a U.S. Air Force intelligence finding approved by the
Department of Defense's Defense Technology Security Administration
(DTSA) and reortedly issued in May 1997, U.S. missile technology
and information provided to China by Space Systems/Loral in a
commercial satellite launch project may have helped China improve
guidance systems for its ballistic missiles. Indeed, the DTSA
reportedly concluded that "United States national security has been
harmed."
This
controversy strongly suggests that the Clinton Administration must
reassess its priorities. Its desire to improve commercial space
cooperation with China has outweighed the U.S. need to promote
successful arms control with China and deter China's growing
military missile capabilities. Congress has begun investigating the
serious security threat posed by such access to U.S. dual-use
missile technology. China already may possess 18 8,000-mile-range
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are capable of
reaching the United States; these old liquid-fueled missiles
undoubtedly will be replaced by modern, solid-fueled, and highly
mobile ICBMs. If information and technology gained by improvements
to China's commercial space launch vehicles could be used to
advance the capabilities of these military ballistic missiles, then
the threat posed by these missiles to U.S. territory is much
greater.
Without a national ballistic missile
defense system in place, both houses of Congress are right to be
concerned. The bipartisan investigations should examine a variety
of issues surrounding the possible transfer of U.S. missile
technology to China, such as whether revenue from commercial space
cooperation in fact is subsidizing China's military missile
program, and whether access to U.S.-made communications satellites
is helping China's military improve its satellite communications
network. Although there are concerns that campaign donors may have
influenced the granting of presidential "waivers" that allow
Chinese space launches of U.S. satellites in the face of sanctions,
and that a Chinese aerospace official, with ties to that country's
top leadership, may have helped to funnel foreign money to a U.S.
political party, the most important concern for Congress today
should be whether U.S. national security has been compromised.
The
Clinton Administration's focus on commercial concerns is also
questionable in light of its inability to convince China to sign
the 1989 Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which would bar
China's sale of dangerous missile technology to such countries as
Pakistan and Iran. The nuclear arms race between these two
countries is complicated by China's assistance to Pakistan's
nuclear program since the 1970s. Clearly, an emphasis on commercial
space cooperation with China over arms control is the wrong
approach. The Administration should place the greatest emphasis on
national security issues when dealing with China. The proper
strategy for U.S. relations with China should include:
-
Suspending U.S. satellite exports to China
pending the outcome of congressional investigations. This would
send China the message that commercial space cooperation is less
important than protecting U.S. security interests.
-
Rebuilding technology export controls and
a multinational military technology control regime to replace the
lapsed Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls.
-
Building an effective defense against
nuclear missiles in the face of an increased probability that China
will build better medium- and long-range ICBMs.
-
Devising a realistic arms control strategy
toward China that rewards China's compliance, not its rhetoric.
The
escalating missile competition in South Asia and China's missile
modernization suggest potentially serious future threats to U.S.
national security. Congress is correct to investigate the
possibility that there has been a transfer of U.S. missile
technology and know-how to China through commercial space
cooperation. Unless the Clinton Administration readjusts its
priorities to place the proper weight on national security in its
dealings with China, the risks to security from continued
commercial space cooperation remain too high. A far better approach
for the Administration to take in developing a China policy should
emphasize security and deterrence over commercial cooperation in
such sensitive areas as space technology.
Richard D. Fisher, Jr.,
is a former Senior Policy Analyst in The Asian Studies Center at
The Heritage Foundation.