After years of delay, the Russian Duma seems
prepared to approve the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II
(START II), which would reduce the number of deployed strategic
nuclear warheads in the United States and Russia to no more than
3,500 each. The U.S. Senate approved the original START II in 1996.
START II will reduce--if not eliminate--Russia's current advantage
over the United States in deployed warheads on intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
But
it now appears that the Duma may decide to attach unacceptable
preconditions to implementation of START II that could either
prevent the Russian government from ratifying the treaty or require
Russia to withdraw from it altogether. Reportedly, one of these
possible conditions would require the United States to observe the
terms of the defunct 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with
the former Soviet Union, which continues to keep America vulnerable
to missile attack. Other conditions could restrict U.S. nuclear or
anti-satellite weapons deployment.
The
Senate should not heed such conditions. It should approve START II
on its own merits, without allowing it to be linked to any other
treaty or agreement, such as the old ABM Treaty.
DUMA CONDITIONS
WILL NOT
ALTER START II
Any
new conditions imposed by the Duma on implementation of START II
would not be modifications to the treaty that would require Senate
approval. Only one modification has been made to the treaty thus
far, and that was done by protocol in 1997 to extend the
implementation period from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2007.
This modified START II agreement does not require the United States
to accede to Duma conditions. Further, the document the
Administration submits to the Senate for approval will not include
those possible conditions, which establish the terms under Russian
law by which the Russian government would ratify the treaty or
withdraw from it under Article VI.
However, many defense policy observers
expect the Administration to demand that the United States accede
to the Duma conditions. The Administration will likely argue that
refusing to meet these conditions is tantamount to opposing the
START II treaty itself. In other words, the Administration will
establish a political linkage between the ABM Treaty and START II.
Such baseless assertions serve only to distract the Senate. The
Duma conditions in and of themselves are tantamount to START II
opposition; one way to defeat a treaty is to attach unrealistic or
unacceptable conditions to its ratification or implementation. On
that note, the record will show that many, if not all, of the
conditions were ones sought by members of the Duma who are at least
skeptical of START II or oppose it altogether.
It
is important to remember that the Senate will not vote on the
Duma's possible conditions. The Senate approved START II in 1996,
and it is free to approve ratification of the 1997 protocol
modifying the treaty without considering any conditions. This would
not preclude the U.S. government--including the Senate, when its
actions are required--from deciding at a later date to take any
action that is consistent with the Duma conditions.
SERVING U.S. INTERESTS
Since START II will help reduce the threat
to America posed by deployed nuclear ICBMs, Senate approval of the
modification to START II is in the United States' best interest.
Acceding to the Duma's conditions for ratification of START II,
especially one that links START II to an ABM Treaty that leaves
Americans and U.S. territory vulnerable to ballistic missile
attack, clearly would not serve U.S. interests.
However, the Clinton Administration likely
will try to bully the Senate into accepting the conditions adopted
by the Duma, especially ones that relate to the continued
observance of the ABM Treaty. It could do so by stating that the
Senate must approve START II and the ABM agreements as a package,
and claiming that opposition to the three ABM agreements signed
last year in New York that would revive the ABM Treaty and broaden
its application is tantamount to opposing START II. The Senate
should not be intimidated by this rhetoric. It should approve START
II on its own merits and then address the ABM agreements
separately.
CONCLUSION
By
approving the 1997 START II protocol, the Senate will have gone on
record twice in support of START II. President Clinton and the
Russians should not try to make perpetual U.S. vulnerability to
missile attack the price America must pay to gain Russia's approval
of START II. If, after Senate approval, START II does not enter
into force or Russia withdraws because the Senate failed to approve
the ABM agreements, then the Duma should bear the blame for killing
this important treaty.
--Baker Spring is Senior Defense
Policy Analyst in The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis International
Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.