By every possible measure, the tax burden on
Americans today is excessive and tax rates are too high. As the
following statistics indicate, the time has come for
across-the-board reductions in tax rates:
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Federal tax revenues this year are
projected to consume 20.5 percent of the economy's output. This is
the highest peacetime level of taxation the United States ever has
experienced, exceeded only in 1944 at the height of World War
II.
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The federal government is expected to
collect $1.722 trillion from taxes this year, more than $13,500 for
every worker in the country. This is nearly 50 percent more than
the government took in as recently as 1993 and more than twice the
level collected in 1987.
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According to the Tax Foundation, taxes at
all levels now consume nearly 38 percent of the average dual-income
family's income. Medieval serfs, by contrast, had to give the lord
of the manor only one-third of their output.
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Indeed, this typical family will pay more
than $22,500 in taxes to all levels of government. This is more
than the family will spend on food, clothing, shelter, and
transportation combined.
LOOKING AT HISTORY'S LESSONS
There is a distinct pattern throughout
U.S. history: When tax rates are reduced, the economy prospers, tax
revenues grow, and lower-income citizens bear a lower share of the
tax burden. Conversely, periods of higher tax rates are associated
with subpar economic performance and stagnant tax revenues. This
evidence demonstrates that:
- Lower tax
rates do not mean less tax revenue.
The tax cuts of the 1920s: Revenues
from personal income taxes increased substantially during the 1920s
despite a reduction in rates. Revenues rose from $719 million in
1921 to $1.164 billion in 1928, an increase of more than 61 percent
(this was a period of virtually no inflation).
The Kennedy tax cuts (1960s): Tax
revenues climbed from $94 billion in 1961 to $153 billion in 1968,
an increase of 62 percent (33 percent after adjusting for
inflation).
The Reagan tax cuts (1980s): Total
tax revenues climbed by 99.4 percent during the 1980s, but the
results are even more impressive when looking at what happened to
personal income tax revenues. Once the economy received an
unambiguous tax cut in January 1983, income tax revenues climbed
dramatically--by more than 54 percent by 1989 (28 percent after
adjusting for inflation).
- The rich pay more when incentives to
hide income are reduced.
The tax cuts of the 1920s: The
share of the tax burden paid by the rich rose dramatically as tax
rates fell. The share of the tax burden borne by the rich (those
making $50,000 and up in those days) climbed from 44.2 percent in
1921 to 78.4 percent in 1928.
The Kennedy tax cuts: Just as
happened in the 1920s, the share of the income tax burden borne by
the rich increased following the tax cuts. Tax collections from
those earning more than $50,000 per year climbed by 57 percent
between 1963 and 1966, while tax collections from those earning
below $50,000 rose 11 percent. As a result, the rich saw their
portion of the income tax burden climb from 11.6 percent to 15.1
percent.
The Reagan tax cuts: The share of
income taxes paid by the top 10 percent of earners jumped
significantly, climbing from 48.0 percent in 1981 to 57.2 percent
in 1988. The top 1 percent saw its share of the income tax bill
climb even more dramatically, from 17.6 percent in 1981 to 27.5
percent in 1988.
CLASS WARFARE MYTHS
A
major argument against pro-growth tax policies is that the "rich"
benefit at the expense of the poor. But consider the following:
Fact #1: According to data from the
Internal Revenue Service, the top 1 percent of income earners pays
more than 30 percent of the total income tax burden; the top 10
percent pay more than 60 percent; and the top 25 percent pay more
than 80 percent. The bottom 50 percent of income earners, on the
other hand, pay less than 5 percent of the total income tax
burden.
Fact #2: President John F. Kennedy
was right: A rising tide does lift all boats. Data from the Bureau
of the Census show that earnings for all income classes tend to
rise and fall in unison. In other words, economic policy either
generates positive results, in which case all income classes
benefit, or causes stagnation and decline, in which case all groups
suffer. The high-tax policies of the late 1970s and early 1990s are
associated with weak economic performance, while the low tax rates
of the 1980s are correlated with rising incomes for all
quintiles.
Fact #3: President Bill Clinton's
own Council of Economic Advisers reported in 1997 that "studies
indicate a reasonably high degree of [income] mobility over time"
and that "almost two thirds of households change income quintiles
over 10 years." A Treasury Department study of those filing tax
returns finds that, over a 10-year period, the poorest 20 percent
were more likely to have climbed to the top 20 percent of taxpayers
than to have remained in the bottom 20 percent.
High
tax rates and a tax code that punishes working, saving, and
investing do not comprise a recipe for long-term prosperity.
History shows clearly that lower tax rates are an integral part of
a reform package to maximize freedom and prosperity. A flat tax is
the best way to ensure that all income is taxed at a single, low
rate. The movement to implement across-the-board tax rate
reductions also is a positive step in this direction.
Daniel J. Mitchell,
Ph.D. is McKenna Senior Fellow in Political Economy
for The Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.