An
inter-Korea summit to take place in June in Pyongyang could mark a
critical turning point in negotiations on the Peninsula and in U.S.
policy. South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung, whose party emerged
from April's parliamentary elections without an outright majority,
is hoping that the summit will receive the full support of his
opposition in the parliament. But this is not certain, since the
opposition has raised suspicions that Kim's government had agreed
to the summit as a last-minute election ploy in exchange for
undisclosed concessions. If such concessions turn out to be
unacceptable, the summit will be little more than a photo
opportunity. Some South Koreans also are concerned that Kim
Dae-Jung's visit to Pyongyang could help to legitimize Kim
Jong-Il's regime.
The
United States, which has led the way in negotiating with the North
in the past, has long sought direct North-South dialogue. It has
been unsuccessful primarily because the process requires the
commitment of both Koreas. As the summit draws near, the best way
for the United States to facilitate the inter-Korea reconciliation
process is to step back from the lead role and instead provide
enlightened diplomatic leadership behind the scenes, allow pressure
to increase in Seoul for the factions to unite, and maintain a
secure environment for the negotiations.
Pre-Summit Preparations.
On April 10, the two Koreas agreed to hold direct talks for the
first time since the Peninsula was divided in 1945. Discussions at
the summit should include economic cooperation, tension-reducing
peace measures, and the reunion of separated family members. Though
governments around the world heralded the significance of this
event, the announcement met with some skepticism in Seoul, since it
came just three days before the parliamentary elections. Leaders of
the largest opposition parties, the Grand National Party and United
Liberal Democrats, accused President Kim Dae-Jung of orchestrating
the announcement to bolster support for his Millennium Democratic
Party. Grand National Party leader Lee Hoi-Chang, in particular,
voiced suspicion that undisclosed concessions had been made in
return for the timely agreement; North Korea, after all, repeatedly
demanded that Seoul meet certain conditions, such as an end to
policy coordination with Japan and the United States and the repeal
of a National Security Law used to suppress pro-North
sympathizers.
Despite news of the summit, Kim's party
won only 115 of the 273 seats in the parliament, giving a plurality
of 133 seats to the Grand National Party. Unless Kim can form a
coalition with other minor opposition parties when the parliament
forms on June 1, progress on important state policies including
reunification could be problematic. At a minimum, this means
significant compromise. To develop a more cooperative political
climate, Kim met with Lee on April 25--only the third time in three
years. Lee, a bitter rival after losing the presidential election
in 1997, agreed to support the summit but made it clear that he
would oppose any pre-summit agreement made by Kim.
Post-election politics in Seoul complicate
the issue of reconciliation, yet the business sector remains
optimistic. Anticipating that the summit will reduce the risks of
doing business with Pyongyang, if not create new opportunities,
some conglomerates have begun to explore ties with the North. The
Hyundai group said it would begin shipping idle equipment to North
Korea and launch Internet-related operations to develop business
ties. Samsung Electronics Co., which started to develop computer
software with its North Korean counterpart, the Korean Computer
Center, has signed a contract to start production on various
consumer electronics appliances. Thus, the pressure for a
successful summit is growing.
Less Is More.
Before the summit announcement, Pyongyang avoided dealing directly
with Seoul, preferring instead the diplomatic recognition of
Washington. The Clinton Administration made numerous economic
concessions to keep Pyongyang in the negotiations--over the past
five years, in fact, the United States became North Korea's primary
benefactor, providing $645 million in aid.
This
approach may have slightly diffused tension in the region, but the
only way to establish a meaningful peace is for the two Koreas to
work together. Thus, it is time for the United States to facilitate
closer bilateral relations between the two states by adopting a
supporting role, providing diplomatic leadership behind the scenes
while maintaining a secure regional environment. This summit offers
the United States an opportunity to begin its transition to a
supporting role without appearing to abandon the process
altogether.
Now
that the North has agreed to direct talks, the United States must
allow the South to take the initiative. Limiting America's profile
will increase pressure on the political factions in Seoul to unite
in order to create a workable plan for a peaceful resolution. The
international spotlight on the summit also is pressuring Lee
Hoi-Chang and President Kim to compromise despite their personal
and policy differences: Neither man wants to be seen as the reason
the June summit fails to make progress.
The
United States could help to create the conditions for success by
showing the North that its most viable option for long-term
economic survival is to cooperate with the South. Drawing a
contrast between the policy of disciplined quid pro quo engagement
and South Korea's more open "sunshine policy" would highlight both
the value and the spirit of the South's investments in the process.
It could also lead Kim Jong-Il to appreciate the South's generosity
and reciprocate its overtures to peace by agreeing to meet in Seoul
for a second round of talks. For the United States, a policy of
reciprocity would be more effective in holding Pyongyang to its
promises in the 1996 Agreed Framework to limit its nuclear
ambitions.
This
does not mean that America's role in the region should diminish in
importance. The presence of U.S. troops along the demilitarized
zone and extended deterrence are important in ensuring a secure
region. The United States should reaffirm its security guarantees
to provide Seoul some flexibility in negotiating peace and
facilitating eventual reunification.
Conclusion.
Getting Korean domestic political forces and foreign interests to
come together for a peaceful solution to the hostilities on the
Peninsula is no easy task. One certainty, however, is that quiet
U.S. diplomatic and security leadership is crucial to the process.
Adopting a supporting role may prove to be the most effective
approach to giving the Koreas the freedom and consequent
responsibility they need to bring about lasting peace.