Since his election as President of Russia
in March 2000, Vladimir Putin has embarked on an intense effort to
enhance Russia's international status and return it to the ranks of
the world's great powers. This effort includes strengthening
Russia's influence with its neighbors, states in the Middle East,
and the Europe Union. Heavily influenced by the agenda of former
Prime Minister Evgeny Primakov, who advocated creation of a
"multipolar" world in which America's status and power decline,
Putin is using arms sales and energy exports to expand Russia's
spheres of influence.
Putin's policies therefore will present
numerous challenges to the new Bush Administration. In some areas,
such as strategic arms reduction, economic development, space
exploration, and international terrorism, Russia is likely to
cooperate with the United States. In other areas, such as national
missile defense and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,
Washington will need to be both careful and cautious in addressing
its concerns with Moscow.
Until recently, the Clinton Administration
all but closed its eyes to Russia's activities that countered U.S.
interests, such as negotiating a "Treaty of Friendship and
Cooperation" with Beijing, selling arms to Iran and China,
supporting Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milosevic, and ignoring
massive money laundering of public funds and, possibly, foreign
assistance dollars. President Clinton apparently believed that the
abstract notion of good relations with Russia, Russia's democratic
transformation, and his personal friendship with Boris Yeltsin were
far more important; but his soft approach to these transgressions
could prove costly, because Putin's agenda could foster conflicts
in regions that are important to the United States, from the
Persian Gulf to the Taiwan Strait. The Bush Administration's new
policy toward Russia must therefore be based on efforts that
protect America's national security interests.
The
leaders of the United States and Russia are at an important
juncture; their decisions will define the basis of U.S.-Russian
relations in the 21st century. Both President Bush and President
Putin must make the right choices now so that future generations of
people enjoy peace and prosperity and are not held hostage to such
threats as ballistic missile attack or economic turmoil.
Putin has expressed a desire to visit the
United States and meet with President George W. Bush. The last
U.S.-Russian summit took place in June 2000, when President Clinton
traveled to Moscow; it was near the end of Clinton's term, and
Putin had only recently assumed office. Despite all U.S. efforts,
no breakthroughs were announced, and the atmosphere reportedly was
businesslike if not chilly.
There is much room for improvement.
President-elect Bush should consider inviting President Putin to a
summit in Washington after his Administration has conducted a
thorough review of Russian policy and has put in place its
decision-making mechanisms on foreign policy and national security
matters. Such a summit could take place in Washington either before
June 2001 or in conjunction with the G-8 summit in Genoa, Italy,
later this summer. At such a summit, the Administration should:
-
Pursue Russia's acceptance of the
deployment of a national missile defense system for America.
Such a system would not be aimed at reducing or eliminating
Russia's potential for deterrence. It would be designed, first and
foremost, to shield the American people against missile attack by
rogue states that possess small numbers of weapons or by terrorist
groups. Moscow already has expressed an interest in joint
development of boost-stage interceptors for theater missile
defense.
-
Establish more stringent nonproliferation
and arms trade criteria. Russia's track record, especially in
weapons and military technology sales to Iran and Iraq, is poor.
Moscow should agree to restrain the sale of arms and military
technology to rogue states.
-
Convince Russia to halt proliferation
activities with Iran and Iraq. The Bush Administration should
offer incentives to Russia, such as increasing quotas for
commercial satellite launches and the purchase of nuclear
power-station fuel (uranium), to encourage it to halt its
proliferation activities with Iran. It could offer Russia
preferential treatment in Iraq after Saddam is gone and sanctions
are lifted.
-
Seek limits on Russian cooperation with
China. Russia's military and industrial ties to China have
contributed to China's aggressive remodernization of its military
and to its proliferation activities. Despite recent reports that
Moscow and Beijing are about to sign a political treaty, the United
States and Russia should open discussions on the nature of the
potential threats that such Chinese activity poses to both
countries.
-
Express support for Russia's accession to
the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Administration should
offer technical support to Russia for developing policy, laws, and
regulations that meet WTO standards.
Clearly, President-elect Bush must offer
Putin an open hand. However, if Putin and Moscow refuse to
cooperate with the Bush Administration in such areas as missile
defense, weapons proliferation, and regional security, the
President must make it clear that U.S. support for Russia's
priorities, such as debt rescheduling, cannot be guaranteed.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is
Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies in the Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.