When President George Bush travels to Tokyo,
Seoul, and Beijing from February 16-22, his key priority will be
security, followed closely by economic issues and the peaceful
resolution of conflicts. North Korea's relentless efforts to
produce and proliferate weapons of mass destruction (WMD) threaten
all of these objectives, and the President will likely raise this
issue in each capital. By identifying North Korea as part of an
"axis of evil," sacrificing millions of its citizens to starvation
while feeding its military programs, he has issued a bold challenge
to Asian leaders to confront North Korea's growing threat to
regional and international security and declared that its behavior
can no longer be tolerated.
The
South Koreans and the Japanese are gravely concerned, but Seoul
blames U.S. rhetoric for the stalled North-South dialogue. China's
leadership is uneasy but loath to alienate one of its last
ideological soul mates by bowing to international pressure.
President Bush needs to build consensus in
Tokyo and Seoul on getting Pyongyang to abide by its United Nations
nuclear inspection commitments and to reciprocate South Korea's
attempts at goodwill dialogue. In Beijing, he must confront China's
destabilizing proliferation activities while reassuring Beijing
that America and China can work together, "in ways we have never
before, to achieve peace and prosperity." He must make the case
that "in every region, free markets and free trade" and, most
important, "free societies" lift people's lives. The President is
aware that China still proliferates WMD and technology, which makes
it part of the problem. A measure of his success will be whether he
can make China part of the solution as well.
The
visits will be counted as successes if President Bush promotes
constructive economic reforms by Japan, firmness in South Korea's
management of relations with the North, and moderation in China's
foreign policies and reforms of its human rights and trade
behavior.
Agenda Priorities in Tokyo
Japan is in a decade of stagnation, and
the U.S. economy is still in recession. Close policy cooperation
could prevent Japan's economic woes from spreading.
Japan is key to the success of the war on
terrorism. Its new Anti-Terrorism Special Measure Law enables it to
participate globally as a U.S. military partner, and its role in
funding Afghan reconstruction proves its importance as a political
partner. A 1998 North Korean ballistic missile test over the Sea of
Japan underscores the security threat to Japan and is ample cause
for cooperation on a ballistic missile defense infrastructure.
Agenda Priorities in Seoul
The
Administration counsels Seoul to demand reciprocity in dealing with
North Korea (its leader has yet to visit Seoul or expand family
reunions), but some still blame Washington's hard line on the North
for the stalled North-South dialogue. The President should
emphasize U.S. willingness to engage the North while maintaining
caution in its own approach.
North Korea sponsors terrorism by
proliferating weapons and technology to rogue states such as Libya,
Syria, Iran, Iraq, Somalia, and Taliban Afghanistan. It harbors
Japanese Red Army terrorists and the Rangoon assassins of 1983.
Recently, an unmarked North Korean vessel fired upon a Japanese
naval vessel near Japan.
The
37,000 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are proof of America's
commitment to stability on the Korean Peninsula, but managing that
presence causes friction in the relationship. The President should
show sensitivity to South Koreans for their sacrifices in
accommodating U.S. troops by moving U.S. headquarters now at
Yongsan Base to another site. He should stress the importance of
the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Committee in managing
North Korea policy among Washington, the ROK, and Japan.
Agenda Priorities in Beijing
The
CIA says China is the second major ballistic missile threat to the
United States behind Russia and that its "missile force will
increase several-fold by 2015" and is "deployed primarily against
the United States." China also has violated virtually every
non-proliferation commitment in the past decade, selling nuclear
weapons technology to Pakistan, advanced missile components to
Pakistan and Iran, and chemical weapons components and precursors
to Iran. In this context, the President should explain that a
national ballistic missile defense system is needed in large part
because China has proliferated missile components and technology to
rogue states.
Although Taiwan is at the heart of
Beijing's unhappiness with Washington, the President should
emphasize America's long-standing friendship with the people of
Taiwan and explain that the China-Taiwan friction can be resolved
only if Beijing engages in an unconditional, direct dialogue with
Taipei. He should repeat the statements he made in Shanghai
encouraging Beijing to treat Taiwan with respect.
Unless the President places such
uncomfortable but necessary issues on the agenda, China's leaders
will assume that he is not serious. U.S. policymakers must step
back from efforts simply "to get the words right" and understand
that the ultimate goal is to help China get its "system" right.
China has been somewhat supportive of the
war on terrorism but is suspicious about America's strategic
presence in Central Asia. President Bush must be sensitive to these
concerns but need not apologize either for a protracted U.S.
military presence in Central Asia or for Japan's increased
participation in Asian security. He should welcome China's efforts
to ease tensions between India and Pakistan.
If
China follows through on its World Trade Organization commitments,
the reforms will open its vast market to American exports and
strengthen the world economy. But only strict adherence to those
commitments will help China reap the benefits of WTO membership.
The United States cannot be sympathetic if China's entry into the
WTO spawns more disputes as Chinese firms, government agencies, and
localities ignore even the clearest of Beijing's promises to open
markets.
John J.
Tkacik is Research Fellow for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia,
and Balbina
Hwang is Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia, in the Asian
Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.