In establishing a new agenda for strengthening U.S.
relations with Asian countries, President George W. Bush faces a
number of challenges, some of which were left unresolved by his
predecessor. Taiwan, for example, must be reassured that America is
still committed to the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of
1979, and China must understand that U.S. sales of defensive
weapons to Taiwan under that law are meant to ensure peace in the
Taiwan Strait. South Korea needs to know that America is committed
to the 1994 Agreed Framework and supports President Kim Dae-jung's
peace initiative, but that Washington also wants real reciprocity
from the North. President Bush must emphasize to China that he
wants a national missile defense as a way to increase stability and
as a prudent response to the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction. He must make sure that relations with nuclear rivals
India and Pakistan are carefully managed and that China abides by
the terms of its recent trade agreement with the United States,
which opened the door for its accession to the World Trade
Organization (WTO).
As
complex as these challenges are, they have a common theme: It is in
America's best interests to strengthen U.S. relations with
long-time Asian allies and with countries that share its democratic
values, have a market economy, respect human rights, and espouse
free trade. President Bush should hold early meetings with the
leaders of South Korea and Japan to begin emphasizing that theme.
Reassuring Taiwan
The Clinton Administration largely ignored China's threatening
military buildup over the past eight years across the Strait from
Taiwan. China has acquired high-resolution radar satellites, new
fighter jets, and stealth submarines. It has upgraded its ballistic
missile capabilities and deployed new brigades of nuclear-capable
missiles along the coast. And it has purchased arms from Russia,
changing the power balance in the region. Taiwan is becoming more
vulnerable to aggression, and the United States is obligated by
principle and law (the TRA) to help Taiwan defend itself.
Taiwan will approach the Bush
Administration in April with a new request to purchase defensive
arms. The Bush Administration should, in consultation with
Congress, enforce the TRA (P.L. 96-8) by stepping up sales of
defensive arms to Taiwan, including improved missile defenses,
command and control systems, air defenses, and anti-submarine
defenses. This will enable Taiwan to balance Beijing's provocative
military buildup. Tensions can be addressed and a settlement
reached only if Taipei can negotiate from a secure position.
Strengthening Peace in Korea
In June 2000, leaders of North and South Korea met for the
first time in 50 years and laid the groundwork for reconciliation.
Both sides signed the 1994 Agreed Framework in which North Korea
agreed to cease its "nuclear research" activities in exchange for
the building of two 1,000 megawatt, energy-producing light water
reactors by South Korea (with help from Japan, the United States,
and the European Union); but new problems threaten that Framework.
Participants have learned, for example, that North Korea's
antiquated power grid is not stable enough to run even one reactor.
This oversight must be addressed. Failure to redefine the project,
already five years behind schedule, could give the North an excuse
to restart its dangerous nuclear energy program.
The
United States should support the principles in the Agreed
Framework; North Korea cannot develop an economy without
desperately needed energy. The Administration should initiate
diplomatic efforts to revisit the agreement and develop a new way
to provide the North with adequate electricity. In the meantime,
the Administration should encourage the North to make substantive
changes in its threatening deployment of a million soldiers and
their long-range artillery on the border with the South, where
37,000 American troops are helping to protect the peace. President
Bush should meet early with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung to
define mutually beneficial positions on these issues, but he should
not visit the North as long as a formal state of war exists on the
Korean Peninsula.
Promoting Missile Defense for
Japan
President Bush promised that among his key priorities would be
"effective missile defenses to protect all 50 states and our
friends and allies." The Japanese are hoping that he makes good on
this pledge. North Korea successfully test-fired a multistage
rocket over the Sea of Japan in August 1998, which led the Japanese
government to partner with the United States to develop ballistic
missile defenses. The Clinton Administration, however, made no
clear commitment to missile defenses and devoted insufficient
resources to research. The Bush Administration should seek the
deployment of sea-based defenses in Asia as soon as possible to
protect U.S. allies and friends from missile attack. The joint
technical research program should continue, and unnecessary
postponements of the Navy Theater-Wide (NTW) program, expected to
be deployed in 2007, should be opposed. The President should also
meet with Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori to discuss this and other
bilateral issues.
Managing Relations with India and
Pakistan
India is maturing as a stable democracy devoted to market
reform; its leaders are seeking greater economic integration with
and investment from the United States. Pakistan is ruled by a
military dictatorship trying to control an unraveling economy. The
dispute between these two countries over the province of Kashmir
brought their peoples to the brink of nuclear war in 1999.
President Clinton's visits to Pakistan and India appeared to
involve the United States in the region but did nothing to address
the basic issues. The Bush Administration should support the
ongoing negotiations over Kashmir and refrain from getting involved
or trying to negotiate a resolution.
Trade with China
When the Clinton Administration signed a market access
agreement with China, it paved the way for China's accession to the
WTO. But the agreement will not come into force unless China joins
the WTO, which it has yet to do. Moreover, WTO membership does not
guarantee that China will abide by the terms of the agreement;
forces within China are deeply opposed to greater trade competition
and may seek to slow implementation. The Bush Administration should
support China's accession to the WTO in 2001 and be as vigorous at
enforcing the trade agreement as it was in negotiating its terms to
ensure that trade with China is free and fair. The Administration
must not allow China to delay implementation of the agreement once
it has joined the WTO or permit China (or any entity acting on its
behalf in the WTO) to keep Taiwan from joining that trading body at
the same time China joins.
Larry M. Wortzel, Ph.D., is Director
of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.