The decision to scale back the level of tax relief
over the next 10 fiscal years means that less than 25 percent of
the projected $5.6 trillion budget surplus will be returned to
taxpayers. For this reason, it is more important than ever for
lawmakers to craft the best possible package of tax cuts if they
want to improve the economy's lagging performance.
One
of the best ways to accomplish this goal would be to lower marginal
tax rates on income, particularly the top income tax rate. This
reform would have both immediate and long-term beneficial effects
on entrepreneurship, investment, and small businesses.
By
every reasonable measure, the tax burden in the United States is
excessive and tax rates are too high. As the following statistics
indicate, the time has come for across-the-board reductions in the
rate of taxation.
-
Federal tax revenues in 2001 are projected
to consume 20.5 percent of domestic economic output--the highest
level of taxation the United States has ever experienced. It is
matched only by the level reached in 1944, at the height of World
War II.
-
The federal government is expected to
collect $2.24 trillion in tax revenue this year--more than $16,500
for every worker in the country. The $2.24 trillion pouring into
Washington is nearly double the amount of revenue raised as
recently as 1993.
-
According to the Washington-based Tax
Foundation, taxes at all levels now consume 39 percent of the
average dual-earner family's income. Even medieval serfs gave the
lord of the manor less than that.
- Indeed, the typical dual-earner family
will pay more than $26,750 in taxes to all levels of government and
will have to work until May 3 to meet its tax bill. This is more
than the family will have to spend on food, clothing, and shelter
combined.
There is a distinct pattern throughout
U.S. history: Simply stated, when tax rates are reduced, the
economy prospers, tax revenues grow, and lower-income citizens bear
a lower share of the tax burden. This experience teaches three
lessons.
Lesson #1: Lower tax rates mean faster
growth.
-
The tax cuts of the 1920s: Spurred
in part by lower tax rates, the economy expanded dramatically. In
real terms, the economy grew 59 percent between 1921 and 1929, and
annual economic growth averaged more than 6 percent.
-
The Kennedy tax cuts: The Kennedy
tax cuts helped to trigger a record economic expansion. Between
1961 and 1968, the inflation-adjusted economy expanded by more than
42 percent. On a yearly basis, economic growth averaged more than 5
percent.
- The Reagan tax cuts: The economic
effects of the Reagan tax cuts were dramatic. The tax cuts helped
to pull the economy out of a severe downturn and ushered in a
period of record peacetime economic growth. During the seven-year
Reagan boom, yearly economic growth averaged 4 percent.
Lesson #2: Lower tax rates do not mean
less tax revenue.
-
The tax cuts of the 1920s: Personal
income tax revenues increased substantially during the 1920s
despite the reduction in rates. Revenues rose from $719 million in
1921 to $1.164 billion in 1928, an increase of more than 61 percent
(during a period of virtually no inflation).
-
The Kennedy tax cuts: Tax revenues
climbed from $94 billion in 1961 to $153 billion in 1968, an
increase of 62 percent (33 percent after adjusting for
inflation).
- The Reagan tax cuts: Total tax
revenues climbed by 99.4 percent during the 1980s. The results are
even more impressive, however, when one looks at what happened to
personal income tax revenues. Once the economy received an
unambiguous tax cut in January 1983, personal income tax revenues
climbed dramatically, increasing by more than 54 percent by 1989
(28 percent after adjusting for inflation).
Lesson #3: The rich pay more when
incentives to hide income are reduced.
-
The tax cuts of the 1920s: The
share of the tax burden paid by the rich rose dramatically as tax
rates fell. The share of the tax burden borne by the rich (those
making $50,000 and up in those days) climbed from 44.2 percent in
1921 to 78.4 percent in 1928.
-
The Kennedy tax cuts: Just as
happened in the 1920s, the share of the income tax burden borne by
the rich increased following the tax cuts. Tax collections from
those earning more than $50,000 per year climbed by 57 percent
between 1963 and 1966, while tax collections from those earning
below $50,000 rose 11 percent. As a result, the rich saw their
portion of the income tax burden climb from 11.6 percent to 15.1
percent.
- The Reagan tax cuts: The share of
income taxes paid by the top 10 percent of earners jumped
significantly, from 48.0 percent in 1981 to 57.2 percent in 1988.
The top 1 percent of taxpayers saw their share of the income tax
bill climb even more dramatically, from 17.6 percent in 1981 to
27.5 percent in 1988.
High
rates of taxation and a tax code that punishes working, saving, and
investing do not add up to a recipe for long-term prosperity.
History shows clearly that lower tax rates are an integral part of
a reform package that maximizes freedom and prosperity. Reducing
all income tax rates is a responsible way to promote long-term
economic growth.
Daniel J. Mitchell, Ph.D., is McKenna
Senior Fellow in Political Economy at The Heritage
Foundation.