The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
leaders' summit in Shanghai, scheduled for October 18-20, was
intended to focus on trade and economic priorities. But the United
States is now at war, and Asia will be a major theater of
operations. President Bush's focus at the APEC meeting must be on
mobilizing America's East Asian allies and friends for an
unconditional victory over the forces of terror. The 2001 summit
will provide a unique opportunity for the President to confer
directly with key Asia-Pacific partners in coordinating a wartime
strategy for East Asia. While the leaders of Russia, Canada, Chile,
Peru, and Mexico will also be present at the APEC meeting, this
paper focuses on the Asia-Pacific countries.
The
President should use his limited time in Shanghai wisely. He must
not let the pomp and ceremony of the summit--or its ostensible
economic focus--distract him from his purpose. He must spend time
with leaders who can help the war against terrorism and avoid
wasting time with those who cannot or will not assist the effort.
Therefore, the President's meeting schedule should prioritize those
APEC leaders who are important allies, friends, and potential
friends in the war on terror: Australia, Japan, Korea, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia.
America's East Asian allies: The
"MUST-SEES"
Beyond offering President Bush an
opportunity to size up the Chinese leadership, his presence in
Shanghai is fortuitous because it affords him the chance to
strengthen ties with America's major allies in the Asia-Pacific
region and to brief his alliance counterparts personally on the
preparations for the war on terror. While the United States' formal
defense treaties with its East Asian allies generally contemplate
military operations within the region that have been duly reported
to the United Nations, all of America's treaty allies--Japan, South
Korea, Australia, and the Philippines--have already expressed total
support for the U.S. war effort.
Australia: Shoulder-to-Shoulder
in Every Conflict
Australia is America's most dependable
ally in the region because Canberra identifies its most critical
security interests in the Asia-Pacific region with Washington's and
is committed to coordinating its military and naval strategies with
its American counterpart. This clearly makes it America's most
reliable ally in the region from an operational point of view.
Australian Prime Minister John Howard's
visit to Washington in early September was not a particularly
satisfactory experience because of his inability to make progress
on a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. Howard was,
nonetheless, sensitive to President Bush's own difficulties in
gaining trade promotion authority (TPA) from Congress and went out
of his way to reassure the U.S. media of Australia's continuing
commitment to the U.S.-Australia alliance, declaring that "We do
have a close alliance. I mean there's no country that we're closer
to in a strategic and ideological sense." Howard's
words are a reminder of how crucial the American alliance with
Australia will be to the impending campaign against terror in
Asia.
President Bush should thank Australia for
its clear and unequivocal support for the war on terrorism,
coordinate military and economic strategies to combat terrorism,
and provide tangible support for Australia's goal of concluding a
free trade agreement with the United States.
Japan: Key to Stability in
the Asia-Pacific Region
When
President Bush meets Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the APEC
summit, he should reiterate the critical importance of Japan's role
as America's pivotal ally in East Asia and acknowledge its full
support in the U.S. campaign against terrorism. Prime Minister
Koizumi should be commended for his September 20 pledge that Japan
would provide as much support as possible, including much-needed
financial support for medical aid to Afghanistan, aid for refugees,
and assistance in transporting supplies, as well
as limited military assistance under the guidelines of its Peace
Constitution.
On
September 27, Koizumi called on the Diet to enact a seven-point
plan to allow Japan's Self-Defense Forces to provide logistical
support for U.S. action in Afghanistan. Under the Koizumi
proposals, Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force will dispatch a
supply ship and three destroyers--including an Aegis ship with
advanced radar and surveillance gear--to the Indian Ocean to
support U.S. efforts, and the Japanese air force will send
transport aircraft to Pakistan with supplies for refugees.
This
is a significant gesture on Japan's part, as it is a sharp
departure from the traditional posture whereby Japan's pacifist
constitution has been interpreted as requiring it to remain on the
sidelines of international conflicts. This new stance, designed to
reassure the United States that Japan intends to hold up its side
of its "special relationship" with the U.S., is politically
sensitive for Koizumi's government even though it has broad support
among the Japanese electorate and polls show that 70 percent of the
Japanese people favor the mobilization of the military to provide
logistical support to U.S.-led forces against terrorism. The United States should
recognize the politically sensitive nature of this commitment in
Japan and understand that it may take some time to initiate limited
military assistance.
Aside from military participation,
President Bush should seek the assistance of Japan's network of
businesses and commercial contacts in the Middle East to provide
intelligence on terrorist organizations operating in the region.
Japan also should be urged to address domestic financial
regulations and loopholes that could allow terrorist organizations
to utilize its financial system for their activities. One way to do
this is for the Japanese central bank, ministry of finance, and law
enforcement offices to establish a financial intelligence
collection mechanism that can quickly identify suspect accounts,
track previous money laundering and other transactions from those
accounts, and freeze existing suspect assets.
Although a connection has not been made
between North Korea and the September 11 attacks, North Korea
remains a primary terrorist concern for the United States. Japan
should be encouraged to pledge its full commitment to rooting out
all links within its financial system that illegally support the
North Korean regime. This includes investigating all financial
institutions that handle money transactions with North Korea via
the strong pro-Pyongyang criminal underworld in Japan.
South Korea: Garnering Support from an
Important Ally
In
the past year, Washington's ties with Seoul have been strained by
misguided perceptions in the Blue House (and among the Korean
public in general) that the new Bush Administration's North Korea
policy had caused a rupture in the North-South dialogue. While
recent moves in Washington to reach out to North Korea have
assuaged some of these concerns, resentment in South Korea based on
incorrect perceptions remains. When he meets South Korean President
Kim Dae-jung at the APEC summit, President Bush should keep these
negative perceptions in mind while recognizing the important role
that South Korea can play in the U.S. campaign against
terrorism.
The
Republic of Korea (ROK) should be praised for its strong and
unconditional support for the United States. On September 17,
President Kim announced his government's full support for the
United States in its war against terrorism and promised "all
necessary cooperation and assistance as a close U.S. ally in the
spirit of the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty." He also declared
that the ROK "will take part in the international coalition to
support the U.S. actions against terrorism."
In
addition, the ROK muted its reaction to Japan's announcement that
it would deploy military equipment and self-defense forces to the
Indian Ocean. In contrast, in 1991, Seoul had vociferously opposed
Japan's providing military assistance for the Gulf War. Seoul's
acceptance of Japan's contribution to the U.S. campaign against
terrorism is an important statement of support from South Korea,
one of America's most important allies in the region. The U.S.
should recognize that for the ROK government, public support for
Japan was a political gamble because the general South Korean
public is opposed to any Japanese military role in the region.
There are two further areas in which
President Bush can urge President Kim Dae-jung to support the
United States in its war against terrorism. First, he should
encourage South Korea to assist in the intelligence-gathering
efforts in the Middle East. South Korea, like Japan, has extensive
commercial presence in these regions, and these relationships can
be of vital importance in assisting U.S. intelligence efforts and
in monitoring banking and other financial channels to terrorist
cells.
Second, the President should encourage
South Korea to take an unambiguous stance against terrorism
vis-à-vis North Korea. While the U.S. State Department's
2000 annual report The Pattern of Global Terrorism did not
explicitly mention links between North Korea and Osama bin Laden,
it stated that the North has links with terror organizations and
continues to harbor several hijackers of a Japanese Airlines flight
en route to North Korea in the 1970s. The report also referred to
evidence that the North has sold arms to terrorist organizations
both directly and indirectly. Significantly, the State Department's
1999 report stated that North Korea had links with bin Laden, and
North Korea remains, today, on the U.S. list of nations supporting
terrorist activities. Finally, there are reports
that North Koreans were seen training in terrorist camps in
Afghanistan. Thus, South Korea should be
ready to devote the full extent of its political, military,
intelligence, and financial resources to halt all North Korean
support for terrorism.
The Philippines: Anti-Terrorism
Expertise
High
on President Bush's must-see list for Shanghai should be Philippine
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who has offered the United
States the "full and unqualified support" of the Philippine
government, vowing that if the Philippines has "to pay a price for
[its] conviction against terrorism, so be it."
President Macapagal-Arroyo has backed up her strong rhetoric by
quickly approving Washington's request to use Clark Air Base and
Subic Naval Base--two former U.S. facilities--as refueling stations
for military aircraft destined for South and Central Asia. In
addition, she has offered to contribute logistical support in the
form of medical personnel and engineering and construction
battalions, should there be a need.
The
Philippine president is also working to assemble a regional
anti-terrorist coalition of the Philippines, Malaysia, and
Indonesia--three Southeast Asian nations with a history of dealing
with Muslim fundamentalist extremists--in an effort to enlist her
two ASEAN neighbors in the global
anti-terrorism campaign. Still in its planning stages, the new
coalition will likely focus on intelligence sharing, improving
maritime border security, and possibly joint military action
against transnational extremist groups. Such a coalition has the
potential to be a useful part of a global anti-terror strategy.
Despite popular support in the Philippines
for international action to combat terrorism, President
Macapagal-Arroyo invested a significant amount of political capital
to rally support for the United States--especially the
unconditional use of the Clark and Subic bases, which are still
considered symbols of American colonial rule. President Bush should
take time in Shanghai to express appreciation to President
Macapagal-Arroyo and the Filipino people for their contribution to
the U.S.-Philippine alliance as well as their commitment to combat
terrorism.
The
support of the Philippine president is important. A terrorist
organization in southern Mindanao, the Abu Sayyaf Group, was
founded by one of bin Laden's lieutenants, Jamal Khalifa, and is
led by Abdurajak Janjalani, a Filipino Muslim who fought with bin
Laden in Afghanistan. The Abu Sayyaf provided support for Abdul
Hakim Murad, who had planned to hijack a commercial airliner and
crash it into CIA headquarters in 1995, and Ramzi Yousef, who
orchestrated the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. Clearly, the
Philippines has been an operational hub for bin Laden's al-Qaeda
forces.
Given this situation, the United States
should consider promoting increased cooperation with the
Philippines in the form of intelligence sharing as well as joint
exercises with police and military personnel. While President
Macapagal-Arroyo and the Philippine government are ready and
willing to battle terror alongside the United States, President
Bush should be prepared to aid the Philippines, both to upgrade its
outdated technology and to improve training to Philippine
counterterrorism personnel.
Malaysia: A Potential Partner
President Bush should meet with Malaysian
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Mahathir is the Muslim head of
government of a moderate, rapidly developing country. Malaysia's
past participation in a wide variety of Muslim causes provides
Kuala Lumpur with outstanding Muslim state credentials, but its
generally moderate stance--despite sometimes immoderate
rhetoric--makes Malaysia an important partner in the war on
terrorism, particularly in the campaigns against regional terrorist
groups and their financial networks.
Malaysia's government has preached for
years against political radicalism in the name of Islam, and its
police and security forces actively cooperate with Washington and
train with the American military. The government of Malaysia is not
yet part of the war on terrorism, but the Bush Administration
should encourage Prime Minister Mahathir to join the U.S.
initiative against terrorism.
Singapore: A Strategic Asset
President Bush should not miss the
opportunity to meet directly with Singapore's Prime Minister Goh
Chok Tong. Singapore has firmly declared its unqualified support
for America's war against terrorism. Prime Minister Goh has said,
"We will have regional and domestic sensitivities to manage, but we
must accept risks for the sake of a better world." More than any other
non-allied nation in the Asia-Pacific region, and even more than
some allies, Singapore has provided significant defense cooperation
and support for U.S. forces over the past decades.
The
opening of Changi Naval Base in March 2001 was a pivotal moment in
the U.S.-Singapore strategic relationship. Changi Base is the
largest and most advanced naval base in Southeast Asia and was
built at Singapore's own expense for the explicit purpose of
"facilitat[ing] the deployment of the US 7th Fleet in Southeast
Asian waters," because "At a time when the region is going through
dramatic political change, the presence of these ships has a
stabilizing effect...." Defense analysts note that,
even though Singapore has stated that "of course, other navies are
welcome to use it on a commercial basis. It's not a foreign
base...," no other country in the region operates aircraft
carriers. Singapore's government does not dispute that the base is
designed to enhance U.S. strategic interests and its capability to
project naval power in the region.
Moreover, Singapore is positioned to
provide direct military support. Unlike any other APEC country, it
possesses considerable military power that would be very useful in
attacking terrorist bases and infrastructure. These assets include
advanced American F-16 fighters with air-to-air refueling
capability, highly skilled army commandos, and a powerful navy. Nor
is this military organization a paper tiger. Singapore's military
is rated second to none in Asia and is perhaps among the top 10 in
the world with regard to its quality of training and equipment. In
the past, the government of Singapore demonstrated a reluctance to
commit its forces to open warfare, but the campaign against
international terrorism may be a challenge the people of Singapore
are willing to accept.
Singapore is also the second largest
financial hub in Asia. A major part of the U.S. war on terrorism
will involve closing formal and informal financial links to
terrorists. The cooperation of Singapore's banks and financial
markets will be essential to that effort.
President Bush should meet with Prime
Minister Goh Chok Tong and treat him as a full partner. Singapore
should be brought into the planning and execution phases of the war
on terrorism and asked to commit financial, intelligence, civil,
and military forces where it can best serve the common cause.
OTHER IMPORTANT ACTORS
IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
Thailand and Taiwan: Unconditional
Friends
The
government of Thailand has come out firmly in favor of America's
anti-terrorist campaign and has unconditionally volunteered to
participate in any international coalition to combat terrorism "as
a long-time friend and ally" of the United States. Bangkok has
given its firm support despite the fact that Thailand has little
financial or military capability to contribute substantially to
such a coalition. In recognition of Thailand's unselfish and
responsible position, President Bush should meet with Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Shanghai, thank him for his support,
and outline ways that Thailand can assist in the war that will not
strain the economic recovery of this long-time ally.
Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian also has
offered his country's full support to the American war on terror
and stands ready to assist the United States in any way. While
Taiwan can be helpful in following international financial
transactions, political realities limit the value of its military
or political contribution to the anti-terror strategy in Asia. In
meeting the Taiwan representative to APEC (President Clinton met
with Taiwan's representative at previous APEC sessions), the
President's focus should be on thanking Taiwan for its support and
on reassuring Taiwan of the Administration's continued commitment
both to helping Taiwan defend itself and to Taiwan's entry into the
WTO under the terms of the Taiwan WTO Working Group consensus.
Indonesia: The Next Crisis in Asia
Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri
was in Washington September 19-21 and had an opportunity to make
her case to President Bush in person. While she offered sympathy,
she withheld full support for the war against terror. President
Megawati is in a delicate situation. Shortly after she announced on
September 20 that she would support the American campaign against
global terrorism, several car bombs rocked a shopping mall in
Jakarta's central district. Most observers suspect there is a link
between the events.
Indonesia is the unfortunate host to a
broad spectrum of terrorist organizations, some of which are quite
large and influential. These groups can be divided roughly into two
categories: separatists and political radicals. Separatist
insurgencies have operated in Aceh and Irian Jaya since the
incorporation of these two provinces into the republic. President
Megawati is most concerned about these movements because they
threaten the territorial integrity of Indonesia. Of late, the
insurgents have become flagrantly indiscreet and increasingly
international in their selection of targets. In Aceh, for example,
the main insurgent group (GAM) has threatened American citizens and
Exxon-Mobil installations in Sumatra and launched attacks against
global shipping in the Straits of Malacca.
Another indication of the imminent danger
in Indonesia is the American embassy's September 27 warning to all
resident Americans to consider "departure from the country." U.S.
Ambassador to Indonesia Robert Gelbard said the warning to
Americans was due to "increasing deterioration in the security
environment regarding Americans" and admitted that "We have been
deeply disappointed by the failure of police to act. I've met the
police a number of times but they have shown reluctance to act."
One Western diplomat told the press that "The [United States] is
making a profound political statement that the Indonesians need to
get their act together and not let murderers run loose on the
streets."
The
embassy recently identified 10 terrorist groups in the political
radical-extremist category. These groups are responsible for the
deaths of thousands of Indonesian Christians, and many are known to
have contacts with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network. It
is reported that they hunt through hotels and restaurants to find
Americans to harass. These terrorists are
apparently unrestrained by the government as they freely raise
funds, recruit jihad fighters, hold press conferences, and openly
maintain offices in many of Indonesia's major cities. On September
25, Dien Syamsudden, secretary general of the Indonesian Council of
Ulemas (Indonesia's top Islamic authority), called for all Muslims
to wage a jihad against the United States if Afghanistan is
attacked. The Islamic Youth Movement
threatened to kill Ambassador Gelbard if the United States attacks
Afghanistan.
President Megawatti seems to have little
ability to crack down on such political extremism; in fact, the
only "terrorist" organization she condemned by name was the Aceh
separatist group GAM. Nonetheless, she has garnered significant
political and economic support from the American government and
businesses that are sympathetic regarding the near-total collapse
of Indonesia's economy and its disintegrating civil cohesion.
The
Bush Administration understandably supports the Indonesian
president's attempt to rebuild her country's economy and to
preserve its territorial integrity, but it clearly does not serve
the interests of the United States when Indonesia spends American
aid money on a corrupt military fighting chronic insurgencies that
have dragged on for 40 years. Rather, the Bush Administration's
support should be provided in a way that encourages civilian
control of the military and induces Jakarta's security forces to
restrict the activities of all terrorist organizations operating in
Indonesia.
China: Friend, Foe, or Just in the
Way?
China is this year's APEC host and one of
the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
and perforce must be factored into the President's strategy for
winning the war on terror. Sadly, however, early comments from
Beijing indicate that it could easily fall into the
"get-in-the-way" category. China has hedged its support by
cautioning that American military action should "respect the United
Nations' charter and norms of international law"; has incongruously linked
"terrorism" with Taiwan "splittism"; and has
called for "reliable evidence" before sanctioning military strikes
against Afghanistan.
China may be a beneficiary of the
international war on terror, but it also hedges its support for the
effort. However, it should be kept in mind that China has little to
contribute so little needs to be demanded of it--little, that is,
except perhaps to take Beijing up on its offer to assist in "in the
financial area" and in "rescue efforts"
(presumably including permission for damaged U.S. aircraft to land
at Chinese airports).
It
will also be important to ensure that China does not complicate
matters in the United Nations and
does not stand in the way of Hong Kong, which will be a crucial
provider of financial, aviation, and shipping intelligence.
President Bush, then, should deal forthrightly with Chinese
President Jiang Zemin.
Naturally, the United States would welcome
China's assistance in "the financial area" and in "rescue efforts."
While China's state-owned financial institutions may not be prime
conduits for terrorist money, Beijing governs Hong Kong's foreign
affairs, and a nod from Beijing will be necessary before Hong
Kong's government and banks can cooperate fully and transparently
with U.S. counterparts. This will be a useful--though not
crucial--Chinese contribution to the war effort. In addition,
Chinese air force bases at Kashi and Hotan have the longest runways
in Central Asia--though U.S. aircraft damaged in runs over
Afghanistan would still have to traverse hundreds of miles over
20,000-foot mountain ranges to get to them.
A
U.S.-China "expert group" met in Washington on September 25 for
"wide-ranging talks" on cooperation in the global anti-terror
effort. While the State Department characterized those talks as
"serious and productive" because they "successfully identified
areas of common interest," there was little indication that the
group managed to agree on anything other than the general statement
that a fight against terrorism is a good thing.
Lobbying Against U.S. Action
China is not an enthusiastic partner in
the war on terror. From the beginning, China has been lobbying U.N.
Security Council members to put the brakes on American action.
Chinese President Jiang Zemin told British Prime Minister Tony
Blair in a telephone conversation on September 18 that U.N.
approval and "irrefutable evidence" were needed for China to back
armed retaliation for the attacks on the United States. In a
similar call to French President Jacques Chirac before Chirac's
trip to Washington, Jiang cautioned that "under current
circumstances, keeping sober-minded is especially needed, and
prudence should be exercised in handling relevant issues." His
message to Russian President Vladimir Putin was the same.
After the September 11 tragedies, the
Chinese media betrayed a certain schadenfreude with such headlines
as "U.S. collapses" and "Stars and Stripes Comes Down." The
official Communist Party newspaper Web-posted an article declaring
that the United States brought the tragedy on itself because of its
hegemony. Chinese journalists visiting the United States at the
time of the terror attacks were reportedly expelled from the
country after allegedly cheering the news--a charge that a State
Department spokesman pointedly refrained from denying. China was
also the only member of the U.N. Security Council not to lower its
flag to half-mast following the attacks. There
also are disturbing private reports that, in some of China's
universities, students cheered the collapse of the World Trade
Center.
Clearly, the Chinese media--which reflect
the country's leadership--are not sympathetic to the American cause
against international terror. This is not to say that the Chinese
leadership may not be more fearful of souring U.S. public opinion
against them than they are of the specter of growing U.S. influence
in Central Asia. The record of China's reaction to U.S. moves in
the 1990-1991 Gulf War indicates that China is far more worried
about antagonizing the American public by appearing to obstruct a
war against terror (or, in 1991, a war against aggression) than it
would be about supporting United States military action in China's
back yard. History suggests that China will not get out in front of
the U.N. Security Council to urge that the American forces against
terrorism be reined in and that, unless it gains support from
Russia, it will most likely abstain from becoming a further
obstruction to this effort within the U.N.
China does not want to cause a reaction
from the American public because the United States is by far its
largest market, purchasing over $100 billion in Chinese goods in
2000 and accounting for over 20 percent of all China's exports.
Furthermore, Washington's relationship with Taipei has improved
vastly under the new Bush Administration, a fact that mitigates
against further Beijing antagonism of the United States. In
addition, Beijing's ham-handed expansionism in the South China Sea
has alarmed its Southeast Asian neighbors; its insistence on
sending spy ships into Japanese waters has made Tokyo suspicious;
and its intransigence toward Taipei has stalled rapprochement
across the Taiwan Strait--all of which should nudge Beijing in the
direction of trying to at least appear helpful this time.
Given this situation, Beijing is not
looking for trouble. When President Bush meets President Jiang in
Shanghai, Jiang will likely be inclined to be cooperative. On the
other hand, he will probably press for concessions--especially
regarding Taiwan. Indeed, Beijing's declaration of the purported
"non-linkage" of Chinese support for the anti-terror campaign and
U.S. support for Taiwan is designed to pressure Washington to
reiterate the infamous "Three Noes" proclaimed by President Clinton
in his July 1998 visit to China.
Clearly, President Bush should not repeat this concession.
Credibility Crucial, No Haggling
Needed
To
be counted a success, President Bush must leave his APEC meeting
with President Jiang with Washington's credibility
intact--credibility with China, with U.S. allies, and with the
American people. President Bush does not need to negotiate with his
Chinese counterparts. He needs only to state his case and move on.
The Chinese will try to temporize about their contribution against
terrorism, but in the end, they will be as cooperative as necessary
without a retreat by the United States on the issue of Taiwan. In
fact, the less haggling over Taiwan at the Bush-Jiang level, the
quicker the leaders can move on to matters that should truly demand
their attention.
Unfortunately, even given the severely
foreshortened agenda of the upcoming Bush visit to China, the
bureaucracies on both sides are likely to focus on achievable
agreements that will prove to be mere window dressing rather than
have the two leaders address their real differences in any
substantive way. One such bilateral agreement that has been in the
works for a long time is the Military Maritime Commission Agreement
(MMCA), a formal dialogue between China and the United States on
military matters that has been frozen since the EP-3 collision near
Hainan on April 1. Talks were to be held on military maritime
security in Guam from September 13-14. The MMCA will take on new
urgency only if the Chinese are serious about opening their
airfields to U.S. warplanes damaged in combat over Afghan targets.
Otherwise, it will amount to no more than a symbolic exercise that
need not take up President Bush's time in Shanghai.
Several additional feel-good pacts also
had been scheduled for the President's visit to Beijing--some sort
of agreement on Chinese missile and nuclear proliferation, a
dialogue on human rights, and an agreement regarding the detention
of U.S. citizens under suspicious circumstances. As worthy as these
may be, however, they should not clutter the President's schedule
in Shanghai. Much more remains to be done on these issues at staff
levels, and it would be unwise to schedule a future U.S.
presidential visit to China until Washington is certain ahead of
time that they can be addressed effectively by the two heads of
state.
Economic Frictions
Another focus of the President's
now-cancelled visit to Beijing was to have been U.S.-China economic
and trade issues. Fortunately, the approval of the China Working
Party paper for China's World Trade Organization (WTO) membership
makes most of this moot, and any loose ends can be tied up by
Ambassador Robert Zoellick at the WTO Ministerial meeting in Doha,
Qatar, in November.
One
major complicating factor in the President's interactions with
Jiang Zemin in Shanghai is that Chinese leaders are preoccupied
with political succession. The focus of the Communist Party's
attention this summer was to map out the ascension of a "Fourth
Generation" of relatively younger political leaders to the top
positions in the party, the government, and the military in a
generational change that will be ratified at the 16th Party
Congress in October 2002. President Bush should be prepared to find
his interlocutors in Shanghai worried more about leadership
factionalism and domestic stability than about humoring Washington
in its war effort.
Surely, hard-liners in Beijing will be
less inclined to be helpful in Central Asian military or
intelligence cooperation, while moderates--like Jiang himself--will
not want to stir up even more problems with Washington. On the
domestic stability front, Beijing's biggest challenge will be to
limit the short-term political impact of China's ever-heavier
burden of annual social welfare, pension, and health care
obligations, which already approaches the value of its entire gross
domestic product.
Nevertheless, the President must persuade
President Jiang that only by a strict adherence to its WTO
commitments can China reap the benefits of membership in the
organization. The United States will not be sympathetic if, rather
than helping to end U.S. trade disputes with China, China's entry
into the WTO spawns even more disputes as Chinese firms, government
agencies, and localities ignore even the clearest of the central
government's promises to open up China's markets.
APEC's Economic Focus
At
the APEC summit, President Bush will be expected to address East
Asian economic issues (see text box). Under the circumstances, it
would be acceptable for him to concentrate on his priority war
aims, including strategies to block the international assets of
terrorist networks. The President's September 24 executive order
freezing the accounts of 27 individuals and organizations suspected
of supporting the global terror network was the first step in
fulfilling the promise he made before the joint session of Congress
that he would "starve terrorists of funding." The
United States will need international cooperation if it truly wants
to identify and freeze the financial assets that serve as the
lifeblood for a network that operates in more than 50
countries.
President Bush's executive order covers
banks and financial institutions based in the United States. If
this strategy is to be truly effective, however, international
banks and foreign governments will have to cooperate. This will
require legislation to enact or revise money-laundering laws to
allow states greater powers to investigate specific accounts where
there is reasonable cause.
Moreover, governments will have to
dedicate resources to monitoring informal money transfer networks
in order to minimize the flow of money into terrorist networks. The
Group of 7 (G-7) nations--U.S., Japan, Germany, Britain, France,
Italy, and Canada--have agreed to a coordinate efforts to freeze
the assets of organizations and individuals that support terrorism.
President Bush should take the opportunity to request that the APEC
member countries join this effort.
In
Shanghai, the President should:
- Focus on the countries that can provide
the most help in the war effort and have exhibited the willingness
to do so;
- Schedule quality time for in-depth
meetings with the leaders of Australia, Japan, Korea, the
Philippines, Malaysia, and Singapore;
- Show support for other friends in the
Asia-Pacific region, including Thailand, Taiwan, and New Zealand,
if time permits;
- Not trade away America's prestige and
international standing by making side deals with China over what it
says about, or sells to, Taiwan;
- Make clear to the Southeast Asian states
with moderate governments and large Islamic populations that the
United States needs their help in the war on terrorism and ask that
they step up to the plate;
- Not waste time on countries that are
unwilling to take a clear position in opposition to international
terrorism;
- Urge APEC partners to enact legislation on
money laundering to allow greater powers to investigate specific
accounts with reasonable cause and call on them to monitor closely
informal money-transfer networks used by terrorist groups; and
- Promote his free trade agenda and explore
new free trade agreements with allies in the Asia-Pacific region,
particularly Singapore and Australia.
Conclusion
As
so many heads of state and government in the Asia-Pacific region
come together for the APEC summit this month, President Bush has a
unique opportunity to shore up support among Asian allies for the
war on terrorism. In the past, the APEC summits have been social
events with some platitudinous discussion of "free and open trade
and investment in the Asia-Pacific." But this meeting takes place
under much different conditions. The President must use his two
days in Shanghai to forge the strongest coalition possible among
America's friends in Asia.
John J.
Tkacik is Research Fellow for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia,
Dana Robert
Dillon is Senior Policy Analyst for Southeast Asia, and Balbina Y.
Hwang is a Policy Analyst on Northeast Asia in the Asia Studies
Center at The Heritage Foundation. Sara J.
Fitzgerald is a Policy Analyst in the Center for International
Trade and Economics at The Heritage Foundation.