Having completed the initial wave of air
strikes on Afghanistan, the United States has deployed Special
Forces troops to Central Asia, the front line in America's war on
terrorism. The task is clear: to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his
al-Qaeda network of terrorists who are responsible for the
September 11 attacks as well as other acts of terrorism against the
United States. However, as President George Bush promised before
the joint session of Congress on September 20, "Our war on terror
begins with al-Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will not end
until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped
and defeated." 1
Southeast Asia will be another important
front in this war. Home to the largest Muslim nation (Indonesia)
and two other countries with groups threatening to establish
fundamentalist Islamic theocracies (Philippines and Malaysia),
Southeast Asia has a large number of established Muslim
fundamentalist groups sympathetic to Osama bin Laden. Thus, the
region is both an ideal safe haven for him and a potential base of
operations from which he could launch terrorist counteroffensives
against the United States.
In
addition, corrupt law enforcement institutions, backlogged judicial
systems, and inadequate cooperation among its countries make it
difficult to eliminate the various cells that operate in Southeast
Asia. Moreover, until September 11 there was little political will
there to commit significant government resources to combat
terrorism, which had been perceived as a limited, but manageable
state problem.
Nevertheless, unlike al-Qaeda's
collaborative relationship with the Taliban ruling party and
militia in Afghanistan, Southeast Asian governments have been
opposed to terrorist groups and their activities for decades, even
if they have not always actively suppressed them. Therefore, direct
U.S. or coalition intervention could lend credence to bin Laden's
contention that these governments are mere puppets of the West, and
thereby exacerbate the terrorist infection.
U.S.
counterterrorism efforts in Southeast Asia should be designed to
help, not hinder, local solutions. Washington should work to
increase the reach of Southeast Asian governments to combat
terrorism by encouraging regional security cooperation, beginning
with a special session of the Regional Forum of the Association of
South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). It also should help improve the
counterterrorism capabilities of militaries in the region through
training and equipment, developing a robust working relationship
between intelligence services, and coordinating the efforts of
national financial institutions to close off funding to the
terrorists.
Identifying the Enemy
The biggest obstacle to fighting terrorists in Southeast Asia is
separating the fans in the stands from the players on the field.
Just because an organization is Islamic and sympathetic to the
plight of Palestinians, Kashmiris, or Afghans does not mean its
members are international terrorists. The President defined the
enemy as any "terrorist group of global reach." To be global in
reach means either having an international political agenda
incorporating acts of terrorism or receiving funds or assistance
from international terrorist organizations.
There are more than 200 million Muslims in
Southeast Asia. Three countries, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia,
have Muslim majorities, and in the world's largest Muslim nation,
Indonesia, 170 million people adhere to the Islamic faith. The vast
majority of these people do not support terrorism and are not
explicitly anti-American, but they provide fertile ground for
al-Qaeda to recruit fighters, raise money, and find safe harbor.
The region's governments already oppose terrorism; thus, direct
U.S. military action against terrorist groups in Southeast Asia
should be done in concert with local counterterrorism initiatives
so as not to invite an anti-American backlash.
Governments define threats either based on
dangers posed to their country's interests or dangers posed to the
interests of the regime in power. The United States must be careful
not to allow the definition of "terrorist" to become so broad that
authoritarian governments could use it to label their opposition
political parties as international terrorists. For example, the
Malaysian government has arrested 10 people under its Internal
Security Act, but they have yet to be charged with a specific
terrorist-related crime. The police claim that these people are
members of a militant Islamic group. Perhaps significantly, at
least four of the people arrested are from the Pan-Malaysian
Islamic Party, the largest opposition party to the government of
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. 2
In
order to avoid becoming mired in the domestic political agendas of
countries in Southeast Asia while combating legitimate "global"
terrorist networks there, the United States should assist the
region's governments in clamping down on groups that have a history
of using violence and terror to achieve their political goals.
Regardless of the declared worthiness of their objectives,
kidnapping, piracy, and indiscriminate violence against civilians
are unacceptable means to achieve those goals. After all, terrorism
does not change the established laws of land warfare; neither
should a war against it.
The
majority of indigenous terrorist groups in Southeast Asia have
limited resources to expand their fight outside their home
countries, and they are small enough that local governments, with
the requisite political determination, should be able to quash
them. The United States can help regional governments to identify
domestic terrorist organizations with foreign support and it should
cooperate with them to cut off that support. Finally, the United
States should make clear that it would defend its allies and
friends in Southeast Asia against international terrorist
attacks.
The Philippines and Abu
Sayyaf
As the largest Christian country in Asia with only a 5 percent
Muslim minority, the Philippines seems like an unlikely incubator
of Muslim fundamentalism. However, the U.S. government has
identified it as one of over 50 countries from which al-Qaeda
operates, demonstrating that it is not the practice of Islam that
is responsible for terrorism; rather it is the spread of a perverse
political interpretation of Islam. Several organizations in the
Philippines have clearly established links to al-Qaeda, and there
is evidence that the events of September 11 can be traced to
them.
The
Abu Sayyaf group--an organization founded by one of bin Laden's
lieutenants, Jamal Khalifa, and initially led by Abdurajak
Janjalani, a Filipino Muslim who fought with bin Laden in
Afghanistan--has been the most active of the terrorist
organizations operating in the Philippines. It began operations in
the early 1990s, staging conventional terrorist operations in the
southern province of Mindanao.
-
In April 2000,
the Abu Sayyaf committed its most successful international
terrorist undertaking, kidnapping 20 Asian and European hostages
from a Malaysian resort. After months of negotiations, a
third-party negotiating team from Libya paid a ransom of over $20
million in order to secure the hostages' release.
-
In May 2001,
equipped with more guns, state-of-the-art speedboats, and
sophisticated communications devices purchased with the ransom
money, the Abu Sayyaf kidnapped a second group of tourists, as well
as foreign journalists covering their story. 3 This group included
three Americans; one American was murdered, the other two remain
hostages.
Many
have discounted these kidnap-for-ransom incidents in the past two
years as the acts of a criminal organization operating under the
guise of Muslim separatism. However, the events of September 11
brought greater scrutiny upon the Abu Sayyaf and its links to
al-Qaeda. Among the standard demands the Abu Sayyaf makes during
hostage negotiations has been the release of three Arab terrorists,
including Ramzi Yousef, who is currently serving a life sentence in
a U.S. prison for the World Trade Center bombing in 1993.
In
1994 Yousef visited Mindanao to help train Abu Sayyaf operatives in
the use of modern explosives. Later that year, he used the
Philippines as a staging area for a dry run of various terrorist
scenarios. For example, to test a new bomb design, Yousef boarded
Philippine Airlines flight 434 from Manila to Tokyo, assembled a
bomb in the aircraft lavatory, and left during a stopover. 4
Although the pilot was able to make an emergency landing, a
Japanese businessman was killed in the explosion.
Recently rediscovered intelligence reports
from 1995 reveal that the Abu Sayyaf may have provided logistical
support for Ramzi Yousef. In January 1995, while investigating a
routine apartment fire, Philippine authorities uncovered the
details of a plan called Operation Bojinka, a blueprint for
terrorism that included a plot to kill the Pope as well as the
bombings of 11 unidentified U.S. passenger jets. 5 More disturbing,
however, are revelations that Operation Bojinka also included a
plan to hijack a commercial airliner and crash it into the Central
Intelligence Agency's headquarters in Langley, Virginia.
It
turned out that the apartment belonged to Ramzi Yousef, and that
the fire began when a bomb exploded prematurely. With the
information provided by Philippine authorities, the Federal Bureau
of Investigation was able to arrest Yousef a month later in
Pakistan.
It
is likely that, left to its own devices, the Abu Sayyaf group's
high-profit criminal activities, such as piracy, kidnapping, and
bank robbery, will continue, and that the funds these activities
generate could be shared with al-Qaeda.
Responding to the Terrorist Threat
As a borderless crime, terrorism by nature is an
international problem that requires a solution with an
international focus. However, for a global coalition against
terrorism to succeed, governments must be held accountable for
eliminating their local terrorist threats. The United States should
help governments in Southeast Asia as much as necessary to win the
war on terrorism at its roots. However, any U.S. support must be
geared toward local solutions as well as initiatives to deal with
the problem in the long term. Diplomatic efforts of the U.S.
government should encourage the people of Southeast Asia to
recognize the dangers of terrorism and to see that only a concerted
effort will eradicate this scourge.
Specifically, the United States
should:
-
Encourage regional initiatives against
terrorism. The government of the Philippines plans to
initiate a regional anti-terrorist coalition with Malaysia and
Indonesia--the three Southeast Asian nations that have a history of
dealing with Muslim fundamentalists. Although the proposal is in
the initial planning stages, the coalition would most likely focus
on intelligence-sharing, improving maritime border security, and
possibly joint military action against transnational extremist
groups. The United States should strongly support the
Philippine-led coalition against terrorism. Although such a
coalition should include many countries committed to eradicating
the problem of terrorism, a core group consisting of the
Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia would
give it a solid foundation.
-
Ask ASEAN leaders to call for a special session
of the ASEAN Regional Forum. To further widen the
political base of a regional coalition, the United States, the
European Union (EU), and Japan should raise the issue of terrorism
at that special session. For the war on terrorism to succeed, the
Forum's members must make it clear to the people of Southeast
Asia's nations that terrorism is morally unacceptable and a threat
to regional stability that must be eliminated. Among the issues the
Forum should address is a unified no-ransom policy. Paying off
ransoms merely encourages future acts of terror, as evidenced by
the Abu Sayyaf cases.
-
Provide support for counterterrorism through
financial and military aid. Instead of paying money to the
kidnappers as was done in the Abu Sayyaf kidnapping incident in
April 2000, the United States, the EU, and Japan should create a
consortium--similar to the Korean peninsula Energy Development
Organization (KEDO)--to help fund Southeast Asian government
counterterrorism efforts. Aid should be disbursed in the form of
direct funds and in training for military and police personnel,
possibly in the form of additional International Military Education
and Training (IMET) programs. The United States should send excess
defense articles (equipment that may be obsolete for the U.S.
forces but represent an upgrade for Asian militaries) to
governments that are sincerely committed to combating
terrorism.
-
Ensure that support targets counterterrorism
initiatives. Any financial or military U.S. support must
be accompanied by conditions. The United States must be able to
verify that its aid goes directly to counterterrorist initiatives
and not into the pockets of corrupt military regimes. The U.S. war
on terrorism must identify terrorist organizations based on the
severity of their acts, not on their declared political agenda.
Additionally, to avoid complicated political entanglements, the
United States must ensure that its financial aid is temporary and
geared toward facilitating a more permanent, regionally funded,
counterterrorist organization. Wherever possible, the United States
should reformulate existing military aid and cooperation for
Southeast Asia to refocus programs on dealing with terrorism.
-
Increase intelligence-sharing with U.S. allies
and friends in Southeast Asia. Washington should work
closely with regional governments in identifying organizations in
the region, beyond the Abu Sayyaf, that could be added to the State
Department list of terrorist organizations with a "global reach" or
funding from international terrorist networks. Groups should be
listed as terrorists by their actions, not their political
agenda.
With a
significant secular Muslim population and established links to
Osama bin Laden's network, Southeast Asia offers valuable resources
for human intelligence. For example, in Indonesia numerous
organizations use terror and violence for political aims, including
some with contacts to al-Qaeda. The Indonesian government will be
hard pressed to address all of them with its limited resources.
Many of these groups appear to have large budgets but undetermined
funding sources. Washington could assist Indonesia, and other
regional governments, in choking off these funding sources through
closer cooperation in identifying domestic terrorist
organizations.
- Use unilateral
military action as a last resort. While the preferred
solution is to use local governments and local security forces to
attack terrorism at its roots, in order to protect Americans from
terrorist acts, Washington must always keep open the option of
direct military intervention. Should there be a clear and immediate
threat to U.S. citizens and property that local security forces in
Southeast Asia cannot handle, Washington must be ready to act.
Conclusion
With the exception of Indochina, during the Cold War indigenous
military forces were strong enough to resist numerous communist
insurgencies. Today, despite the effects of the 1997 Asian
financial crisis, governments in the region possess economic and
military means to fight domestic terrorism that are far superior to
those they marshaled during the Cold War. Yet the fragility of some
local governments (and in some cases their culpability) means that
direct U.S. military action must only be a last resort.
To
win the war, Washington must focus on weakening international
terrorist networks by cutting off their sources of funding. It
should also help strengthen the ability of regional governments to
suppress terrorists tied in with organizations like al-Qaeda by
encouraging increased regional cooperation in intelligence-sharing
and providing targeted funds, training, and support as needed.
Dana Robert
Dillonis a Senior Policy Analyst for Southeast
Asia at The Heritage Foundation.
Endnotes