The upcoming summit in Crawford, Texas,
between President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir
Putin will be their first formal meeting since the war on terrorism
began. The challenge for these two popular leaders, who already
have forged a congenial relationship, will be to keep their eyes on
the prize: defeating terrorism; facilitating defenses against
missiles carrying nuclear, chemical, biological, and radiological
weapons; reducing strategic nuclear weapons; and building a
long-term cooperative alliance. President Putin has demonstrated a
willingness to work with President Bush: In the war on terrorism,
he provided intelligence on the Taliban, gave Central Asian states
the green light to allow the United States to use their military
bases, signed on to U.N. Security Council resolutions to support
the U.S. use of force, toned down resistance to NATO enlargement,
and even closed an electronic intelligence collection facility in
Cuba.
The
Administration should not, however, rush to interpret Putin's good
relations with Bush or support for the war on terrorism to mean
that the Kremlin is ready to support all of America's priorities on
strategic defense. President Bush must be careful that any
agreement he signs at the summit does not compromise national
security. For example, he must not sign any deal that would keep in
force the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which bars the
development and deployment of missile defenses and leaves Americans
vulnerable to attack while giving Russia the ability to veto
specific U.S. missile defense activities.
When
President Bush welcomes President Putin to his ranch in Crawford,
he should put forth an agenda that focuses clearly on improving
strategic defense and cooperation with Russia on a broad range of
security and economic issues. Specifically, he should:
- Announce that he will set aside the ABM
Treaty.
Ideally, both presidents will agree at the summit to set aside
the outmoded ABM Treaty between the United States and the
now-defunct Soviet Union. This would pave the way for a variety of
cooperative measures to address the growing threat of missile
attack, such as transparency, shared threat assessments and sharing
of early warning and defense technology, coordinated deployments of
missile defense systems, and non-proliferation. But if such
agreements are not forthcoming, President Bush should announce that
the United States is setting aside the ABM Treaty.
- Offer additional reductions in strategic nuclear forces
. A treaty agreement on reducing strategic nuclear forces is not
necessary at this summit. However, to demonstrate their intent to
reduce nuclear arms, both leaders could issue reciprocal
statements. Putin, for example, could renew his earlier pledge to
reduce Russia's force of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to
1,500. President Bush could state that strategic nuclear force
requirements for a post-Cold War world, under certain conditions,
will allow the United States to reduce its force below the 2,000 to
2,500 warheads envisioned for START III.
- Discuss further cooperation in the war on
terrorism and efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. This could
include, for example, coordinating policies on joint training of
and supplying anti-Taliban forces and anti-terrorism units, and
recruiting ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks from Central Asia to help the
Northern Alliance; joint refugee relief efforts and radio
broadcasts into Afghanistan in Tajik, Uzbek, and Pashtu; broadening
the war to terrorist-sponsoring states beyond Afghanistan; and the
nature of the future Afghan government.
- Encourage expansion of NATO-Russian
cooperation beyond the Partnership for Peace program that Russia
joined in 1994. Such a plan would require going beyond the
summit, Foreign Ministerial, and Ambassadorial meetings of the
NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council, and may include creating
permanent staff to develop cooperative programs. NATO and Russia
could cooperate on a plan for comprehensive military reform in
Russia, perhaps modeled after reforms in NATO's new members,
Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. This includes
strengthening democratic civilian control of armed forces,
professionalizing the forces, and increasing transparency in
military budgets. President Bush should invite President Putin to
address the NATO summit in Prague in November 2002. Both leaders
should be aware that an alliance relationship would require a
commitment to provide mutual defenses under Article V. President
Bush also should encourage Putin to resolve the conflict in
Chechnya peacefully to increase regional stability.
- Facilitate cooperation on other issues such
as energy supply and economic growth. For example, the leaders
should discuss: the potential for Russia to supply energy to the
West if Middle East supplies are threatened; ways to further
integrate Russia's economy with that of the West, including
membership in the World Trade Organization; and "graduating" Russia
from Jackson-Vanik Amendment trade restrictions imposed in 1974 to
pressure the Soviet Union for severely limiting the emigration of
Jews.
Conclusion.
The Crawford summit may be as important to international security
today as the historic conferences between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail
Gorbachev were to the end of the Cold War. The summit offers
avenues for wartime cooperation against terrorism and concurrent
steps to further integrate Russia into the West. It also provides
the United States with an opportunity to formally end its
vulnerability to missile attack to pursue the deployment of
effective missile defenses. Indeed, a new era of cooperation
between the United States and Russia, which includes strategic
defense, should bear fruit at the summit in policies that will make
the world safer for many years to come.
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Research Fellow
in Russian and Eurasian Studies, and Baker Spring
is F. M. Kirby Research Fellow in National Security Policy, in the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies
at The Heritage Foundation.