President George Bush, in his State of the
Union address to the American people, set the priorities for his
agenda on his upcoming state visits to Japan, Korea, and China.
When he travels to Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing, his key priority will
be security, but it will be followed closely by economic issues and
the peaceful resolution of conflicts. The President will likely
raise in each country the problem of North Korea's relentless
effort to procure, produce, and proliferate weapons of mass
destruction (WMD). By identifying North Korea as a member of an
"axis of evil," he did more than decry Pyongyang's deliberate
sacrifice of millions of its own citizens to starvation and death
while feeding its military programs. He also was making a bold
declaration to the leaders of Asian countries that North Korea's
actions threaten not only U.S. and regional security, but also
global security, and can no longer be tolerated.
The
South Koreans and Japanese understand the threat North Korea poses
and are gravely concerned. China's leadership also is uneasy with
North Korea's isolationism and defiance, but Beijing is loath to
alienate one of its last ideological soul mates by bowing to
international pressure. Beijing still proliferates technology and
materiel for WMD and missile delivery systems to the three "axis"
states--Iraq, Iran, and North Korea. Indeed, the United States
sanctioned some Chinese "entities" in January 2002 for selling
chemical weapons precursors and production equipment to Iran
despite a previous agreement to stop such sales.
President Bush will confront differing
challenges when he meets with state officials in the three
capitals. For example, he will need to forge a consensus with
leaders in Tokyo and Seoul on how to coordinate effective policy
toward a recalcitrant Pyongyang. In Beijing, he must confront the
issue of China's destabilizing proliferation activities while at
the same time reassuring Beijing that America and China can work
together, "in ways we have never before, to achieve peace and
prosperity." He also must make the case that "in every region, free
markets and free trade and free societies are proving their power
to lift lives."
Among his other important priorities:
addressing the deepening economic problems in Japan, some South
Koreans' uncertainty about America's support for peace on the
Korean Peninsula, and the culmination of the political succession
in China, set for October 2002. These visits will be counted as
successes if President Bush can promote constructive economic
reforms by Japan, firmness in South Korea's management of relations
with the North, and moderation in China's foreign policies and
reforms of its human rights and trade behavior.
Agenda Priorities in Tokyo
Strengthening
Both Economies.
As the world's two largest economies, the United States
and Japan should work together to strengthen their own as well as
the global economy. In light of Japan's decade of economic
stagnation and the recession in the United States, many realize
that the vitality of both economies is integral to prosperity
around the world. Close cooperation in economic policies will help
prevent Japan's economic woes from spreading throughout the region,
and also will prevent the sort of hostility over trade and other
economic issues that existed between the two countries in the
1980s.
When
President Bush addresses the Japanese Diet, he can encourage
much-needed reforms in Japan by voicing strong support for Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi's efforts and encourage the Japanese
government to proceed with the promised overhaul of the banking and
financial systems. Japan should also be encouraged to address the
immense burden of bank debt--a painful but necessary step to avert
a meltdown of the financial system. And the
President should convince Japan of the importance of communicating
its monetary policy decisions to its neighbors. The devaluation of
the yen, although beneficial domestically, is causing concern in
East Asia that Japan is pursuing a "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy
that could contribute to regional instability. Furthermore, a
steady decline in the yen may contribute to increasing discontent
among Americans as bilateral trade pressures mount.
Finally, President Bush should convey to
Japan that currency devaluation is merely a short-term measure to
alleviate recessionary pressures, while overall structural reform
is necessary for long-term revival of the Japanese economy.
Strengthening
the Alliance.
For 50 years, the U.S.-Japan alliance has been the basis for peace
and prosperity in Asia. Japan's critical role in this strategic
partnership became clearer in recent months with its strong show of
support for the war on terrorism. Shortly after September 11, Japan
passed a significant Anti-Terrorism Special Measure Law, enabling
it to participate as a more active political and military partner
of the United States. This was an important step for
Japan in taking a leadership role in security issues in Asia and
provides a more secure basis for stability in the region.
But
the war on terrorism is far from over, and Japan's close
cooperation is also needed to address the lingering threat posed by
North Korea. In August 1998, North Korea test-fired a multi-stage
ballistic missile over the Sea of Japan. The Taepo Dong-1, the
first three-stage missile launched by Pyongyang, is capable of
carrying a nuclear warhead. Combined with the North's pursuit of
biological, chemical, and (most likely) nuclear weapons programs,
this action highlights the significant dangers this regime poses to
regional and global security.
In
Tokyo, President Bush should praise Japan's contributions to the
war on terrorism, including its key role in rebuilding Afghanistan.
Japan's participation provides the Asian anchor to the coalition
fighting to eradicate terrorism. Japan also should be encouraged to
recognize the vicissitudes of the Asian security environment and
seek to anticipate rather than simply respond to problems after
they arise. Specifically, Japan should be urged to expand on the
1999 agreement with the United States to cooperate on developing a
ballistic missile defense infrastructure that would protect the
people of Japan as well as forward-deployed U.S. forces and
America's allies from missile attack.
Dealing with
North Korea.
Maintaining North Korea on the U.S. State Department's
list of state sponsors of terrorism and identifying it as part of
the "axis of evil" directly addresses strong Japanese security
concerns. North Korea continues to harbor the fugitive terrorists
of the Japanese Red Army as well as maintain their denial of any
involvement in the kidnapping of Japanese civilians. As recently as
December 2001, North Korea apparently attempted to infiltrate its
agents into Japan using a fishing boat, firing upon the Japanese
coast guard in the process.
President Bush should urge Japan to support his strong stance
against North Korea and work closely with his Administration and
South Korea to pressure North Korea to cease these activities.
Agenda Priorities in Seoul
Assuring South
Korea of U.S. Support for Reconciliation.
There is a widespread misconception in Korea that
President Bush opposes engagement with North Korea, maintaining a
hard-line stance toward that country. In reality, the United States
has offered North Korea an open-ended invitation to meet at "any
time, any place," while North Korea has refused
to meet with U.S. representatives and has slowed progress in the
North-South dialogue. The Bush Administration also has stated
repeatedly that it fully supports South Korea's efforts to
encourage the dialogue and reconciliation process.
Some
South Koreans use President Bush's insistence on reciprocity when
dealing with North Korea as a way to blame the United States for
the frustrating lack of progress in the North-South dialogue. Even
those critical of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's "Sunshine
Policy" of engagement have perpetuated this misperception.
President Bush's most important priority in Seoul, then, should be
to dispel this myth by stating clearly, and repeatedly, that the
United States is willing to engage in dialogue with the North.
While America fully supports Seoul's initiatives to engage
Pyongyang, the President should explain that the United States must
be cautious about its own engagement. North Korea still poses a
significant threat to the security of South Korea and the world.
Not making this clear could allow a misperception to undermine the
U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance.
Finally, President Bush could use his trip
to visit U.S. troops stationed at the Demilitarized Zone,
delivering a compelling message to the Koreas and the world that
the transportation corridor to the North could be opened if only
Pyongyang were to keep its end of the bargain.
Explaining Why
North Korea Is a Terrorist State.
In his State of the Union address on January 29,
President Bush made it clear that it is a U.S. priority to "prevent
terrorists and regimes who seek chemical, biological, or nuclear
weapons" from threatening America and its allies with weapons of
mass destruction. North Korea is one of several
countries that sponsor terrorism by proliferating weapons,
technology, and materials. For example, North Korea has sold 50
Nodong-1 missiles (with a range of 1,000 kilometers) to Libya, and Syria is reportedly
considering buying intermediate-range Nodong missiles from
Pyongyang. North Korea also still
harbors the terrorists from the Japanese Red Army and also those
who assassinated South Korean officials in Burma. And North Korea
has perpetrated numerous acts of terrorism in the sovereign
territory of South Korea, including a submarine raid that resulted
in the deaths of 17 South Koreans.
The
United States has taken a strong stance against terrorism and is
working with its allies to preempt another terrorist attack. If
proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological WMD continues,
the next terrorist attack would dwarf the devastation of September
11. Thus, it is in the interests of the United States, South Korea,
Asia, and indeed the world for the United States to ensure that
North Korea and other regimes cease all proliferation
activities.
American identification of North Korea as
a perpetrator of terrorism and part of the "axis of evil" is a
policy that should be equally important to South Koreans. They need
only to be reminded of the 1983 brutal assassination attempt on
former President Chun Doo-Hwan in Burma, which killed 17 senior
South Korean officials, including cabinet ministers. Or they might remember the
1987 North Korean bombing of a Korean airliner killing all 115
civilians on board, or the more than 3,600 South Korean citizens
that have been kidnapped by the North throughout the past five
decades.
President Bush can use this visit to Seoul
to clarify U.S. objectives and priorities regarding the eradication
of global terrorism. Some argue that a show of resolve backs North
Korea into a corner, and they fear that Pyongyang will react
aggressively to a strong U.S. stance. President Bush should
communicate clearly that creating incentives for the North to
reduce terrorism and weapons proliferation is vital to national and
regional security. America's strong stance against states that
sponsor terrorism also is consistent with President Kim's Sunshine
Policy to bring peace and stability to the Korean Peninsula. And
while the United States maintains a policy of reciprocal engagement
with North Korea, issues related to terrorist activities must take
priority as long as the threat of global terrorism exists.
Strengthening
the U.S.-ROK Alliance.
This 48-year-long relationship is part of the bedrock of stability
and prosperity in East Asia, and any minor policy differences that
may exist between the two countries should not be allowed to
undermine or fundamentally alter it. The strength of the U.S.
commitment to South Korea is visibly manifested in the 37,000 U.S.
troops stationed there, as well as in formal treaty commitments
that obligate the United States to aid the defense of South Korea
should its security be threatened by an external force.
Nevertheless, lingering issues related to U.S. troop presence in
the South cause friction in the relationship.
In
Seoul, President Bush should take this valuable opportunity to
reaffirm the strength of the alliance, reassuring the U.S. military
command of Americans' support and showing sensitivity to South
Koreans for the trade-offs they make in exchange for the U.S.
commitment. On the issue of the Yongsan Base, which currently
houses the headquarters of the U.S. Forces Korea, President Bush
should reiterate America's commitment to relocate that base to a
locale outside of Seoul. Such a move is currently constrained by
the U.S. war on terrorism and by the fiscal burden this would place
on the ROK, but relocating the base in the future will be an
important step in improving U.S.-ROK relations.
President Bush should also take advantage
of the opportunity to stress the critical importance of the
Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Committee (TCOG), which
manages and coordinates North Korea policy among the United States,
the ROK, and Japan. The key objective is to
ensure that North Korea does not succeed in its long-held goal of
driving a wedge between the members of the U.S.-ROK alliance.
Clarifying the
Need for Missile Defenses.
President Kim Dae Jung made what is widely considered a diplomatic
error last March by signing a joint declaration with President
Vladimir Putin of Russia in support of the Anti-Ballistic Missile
(ABM) Treaty between the Soviet Union and the United States. This
event revealed the extent to which South Koreans are skeptical of a
missile defense system. Indeed, another disturbing but pervasive
myth is that the Bush Administration needs the threat of North
Korean missiles to sell its beloved missile shield. Such arguments
are not only naïve but foolish. The events of September 11
graphically illustrate that the greatest danger to security for
America and its allies derives not from the responsible nuclear
powers of the international community, but from regimes, groups, or
even individuals who would stop at nothing to take advantage of
America's greatest vulnerability: its inability to protect its own
people from missile attack.
North Korea represents the most obvious of
these threats today because of its lethal combination of intent and
capability, laid bare by its threatening rhetoric and posture
against South Korea and the United States and by its rapidly
growing capabilities. Soon, it will have ballistic missile
technology with a potential range of over 6,000 miles. The most
obvious response to such a blatant threat must be the development
of a system capable of defending against such terror.
In
addressing the people of South Korea, President Bush should clarify
the true objectives of a missile defense program--to protect and
defend against weapons of mass destruction. He should allay fears
that a missile defense system would antagonize North Korea as well
as China and convey the salience of a missile defense system for
the South's security.
Agenda Priorities in Beijing
Because his visit to China necessarily
will be short, President Bush should concentrate on a
results-oriented dialogue and avoid humoring the Chinese where U.S.
and Chinese differences are irreconcilable. The President cannot
ignore the difficult issues, and he should not fear the typical
reaction of Chinese leaders who purport to take offense at
America's directness. Serious issues exist between these two
important countries that must be broached without ambiguity, and
less contentious topics should be approached in a spirit of
cooperation. Among the serious issues: (1) China's military
expansion, especially its missile buildup that threatens regional
stability, and missile development, which clearly targets the
capabilities of the United States; (2) China's proliferation of
missiles and nuclear and chemical weapons; (3) China's treatment of
Taiwan and the need for renewed dialogue without preconditions; and
(4) China's efforts to address human rights abuses.
In
addition to these difficult issues, two significant issues that
bridge relations between the United States and China should also be
discussed: the war on terrorism and trade. President Bush should
encourage Chinese President Jiang Zemin to consider greater
cooperation with the coalition fighting the war on terrorism and
offer praise for China's progress in opening its markets to trade
and acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO), while offering
guidance on how China can best reap the benefits of membership in
that organization.
The
Administration should recognize that Chinese negotiators commonly
propose "setting aside differences to concentrate on commonalities"
(cun yi qiu tong) in an effort to avoid discussion of issues on
which they have the weaker arguments. This
negotiating tactic permits the Chinese to control the agenda and
diverts attention away from China's shortcomings and toward areas
where they hope to gain concessions by proclaiming they are trying
to reach consensus. This tactic also enables the Chinese to claim
afterwards that since the other side did not discuss difficult
matters, they must not have been all that important.
President Bush should firmly state his
case, leaving no doubt as to the American position on each matter.
He should be wary of allowing the Chinese to deflect
straightforward discussion of China's proliferation, its military
buildup against Taiwan, the expansion of its intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) force, and its human rights abuses.
Convincing China
that Its Missile Buildup Threatens Stability.
The latest threat assessment of the foreign ballistic missiles by
the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) lists China as the second
major threat to the United States behind Russia. According to this
assessment, China's "missile force [of 75 to 100 warheads] will
increase several-fold by 2015." More
troubling, this massive increase in China's missile force is
"deployed primarily against the United States." Because China's
missile arsenal is capable of hitting anywhere in the United
States, President Bush should make this his top priority when he
travels to Beijing.
China's more moderate leaders appear
persuaded that Beijing's aggressive rhetoric against Taiwan, its
military expansion into the South China Sea, and the EP-3 showdown
near Hainan Island were counterproductive. The
Bush Administration reacted to China's missile buildup on the coast
of the Taiwan Strait by reaffirming its defense commitment to
Taiwan, and many see China's growing missile force as a major cause
of the Bush Administration's commitment to develop a national
ballistic missile defense. President Bush's firm resolve when
dealing with the issue of missile buildup was key to this
realization and need not be relaxed.
President Bush must avoid the mistake
President Bill Clinton made during a visit to Beijing in June 1998.
President Clinton used the visit to sign a "nuclear missile
detargeting agreement" with China in exchange for a public
articulation of his infamous "Three Noes" about Taiwan and its
international standing. Since that signing, there
have been both an increase in China's missile arsenal and more
Chinese belligerence in the Taiwan Strait--not a decrease as one
might expect. President Bush should voice disappointment at the
growing Chinese capability to launch a nuclear strike against the
United States despite the 1998 nuclear detargeting agreement.
Convincing China
that Its Proliferation Threatens the World.
China has violated virtually every non-proliferation
commitment in the past decade. Aside from effectively ignoring the
1998 detargeting agreement, China has broken other promises. In February 2000, the Clinton
Administration, distressed by China's fourth consecutive violation
of pledges to halt missile exports, banned the issuance of
satellite licenses to China until it promised to end all transfers
of advanced missile technology to Pakistan. In November 2000, China
swore--for the fifth time--that it would end the transfers, making
it possible for the United States to resume normal processing of
licenses for the launch of U.S. satellites on Chinese boosters. Yet
by February 2001, U.S. intelligence had learned that China had
continued these exports to Pakistan, causing President Bush to
order new missile sanctions on the Chinese government and a Chinese
aerospace company.
At
first, China insisted that the U.S. sanctions were based on faulty
intelligence. But in November 2000, China stated that because it
felt its missile technology contracts signed before then were not
covered by the pledge, it could continue to transfer missile
components to Pakistan even after November 2000. This,
of course, was the same line the Chinese used to explain away their
violations of the 1991 commitment to halt sales of M-11 missile
technology, a commitment made by then-foreign minister Qian Qichen
to then-Secretary of State James Baker, with another commitment in
1994 and yet a third in 1996.
Washington responded by demanding that
Beijing put into writing its oral agreement of November 2000,
pledging to cease all exports of advanced missile technology. But
Beijing demurred and pleaded that it would instead establish a
governmental export control regime to regulate missiles and missile
technology exports.
China also continues to export chemical
weapons materials and condones the export of chemical weapons
precursors and manufacturing equipment to rogue states, as
evidenced by the new U.S. sanctions on three Chinese entities for
selling such items to Iran. These sanctions are ineffectual. An
unclassified CIA report says that prior to the last half of 2001,
"Chinese firms had supplied dual-use [in this case, chemical
weapons]-related production equipment and technology to Iran."
Those entities had also been hit with sanctions in 1997, and they
have been sanctioned again this year.
The
President should ask the Chinese why the United States would place
any further credence in China's written assurances when the first
written pledge (Vice Premier Qian Qichen's in 1991) and virtually
all since then have proved untrustworthy. In this context, the
President should explain that the United States feels it must
deploy a national ballistic missile defense system in large part
because China continues to proliferate advanced missile components
and technology to rogue states that threaten the American
homeland.
The
President should publicly address China's repeated violations of
virtually every commitment to cease its proliferation of advanced
nuclear, chemical, and missile technology. However, unless his
words are supported by action, China will assume the U.S. position
is not serious. One concrete step would be to link all future
waivers of sanctions to an extensive period of Chinese compliance
as verified by U.S. "national technical means," not new
promises.
The
President's State of the Union address made it clear that the
United States will no longer ignore countries that develop weapons
of mass destruction or their delivery systems. Moreover, President
Bush warned he would act aggressively against these countries. The
United States must also take action against nations that
proliferate missiles and WMD technology. Placing U.S. sanctions on
Chinese "entities" that proliferate merely treats the symptoms, not
the disease--the Chinese government's toleration and support of
proliferation is the real problem.
President Bush should take this
opportunity to emphasize that if China does not stop these
destabilizing actions, the United States will be forced to review
all of the 50-odd science and technology cooperation protocols it
has entered into with China since 1979--particularly in high-energy
physics cooperation--and terminate those that may improve China's
military capacities.
Encouraging
China to End Its Hostility to Taiwan.
Taiwan remains at the heart of Beijing's unhappiness with
Washington. Some in Beijing want to play down the Taiwan issue
during President Bush's visit to avoid provoking statements more
supportive of Taiwan. The visits of several senior Chinese
officials to Washington in January and early February 2002 were
designed to convince the United States of China's moderate stance
on the Taiwan issue. The President in Beijing should reiterate that
America has a long-standing friendship with the people of Taiwan
and their elected representatives, and that the China-Taiwan
friction can be resolved only if Beijing engages in an
unconditional, direct dialogue with Taipei.
President Bush should repeat the statements he made in Shanghai
encouraging Beijing to treat Taiwan with respect.
On
January 24, Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen delivered an
"important speech" on the Taiwan issue,
highlighted by the attendance of China's Vice President and
heir-apparent Hu Jintao. Qian termed China's and
Taiwan's entry into the WTO "a major event" and "a new opportunity
for further development of economic and trade relations between the
two sides." The Vice Premier chose his words carefully. Last
November, a senior Chinese spokesman had argued, "it is
inappropriate for the two sides to discuss economic and trade
relations within the WTO framework." While
Vice Premier Qian did not directly contradict this statement, his
words implied that the WTO could be a venue for cross-Strait trade
talks. His speech suggests, moreover, that Chinese and Taiwanese
trade delegates could begin to work out trade problems discreetly
in Geneva. President Bush should publicly welcome China's view that
WTO participation by Taiwan is "a new opportunity" to develop
economic and trade ties with the people of Taiwan, and encourage
Beijing to follow up on this moderate rhetoric with deeds.
Vice
Premier Qian's speech was not a new opening to Taiwan. China
adamantly refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of Taiwan's elected
government. While the American media painted the Vice Premier's
invitation to supporters of Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) to visit China as a dramatic turn, in Taiwan, DPP
partisans only shrugged; DPP members travel privately to China all
the time. Vice Premier Qian's reference to the DPP was a simple
acknowledgement that the DPP now runs Taiwan. Still, Qian insisted
that only an "extremely small number" of DPP members support
Taiwan's independence. In response, the DPP Secretary General
asked, "where are these DPP members who don't support Taiwan
independence?" A Beijing spokesman then
clarified that only DPP members committed to "one China" are
welcome in China and declared that Taiwan's President Chen
Shui-bian is clearly not one of them.
Understanding
the "One China" Policy.
Washington must be clear that its "one China" policy simply means
that the United States recognizes the People's Republic of China as
the "sole, legal government of China." It does not mean that the
United States accepts China's territorial or sovereign claims to
Taiwan; China knows this and agreed
to establish diplomatic relations with the United States in spite
of it. Moreover, the 1979 Taiwan
Relations Act (P.L. 96-8) explicitly mandates that the United
States shall "maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force
or other forms of coercion" against Taiwan, and explicitly
acknowledges Taiwan as a "foreign country, nation, state,
government, or similar entity" for the purposes of U.S. domestic
law.
On
July 14, 1982, President Ronald Reagan gave "six assurances" to
Taiwan's president that confirmed, among other things, that the
United States would not terminate arms sales to Taiwan, would not
pressure Taiwan into negotiations with China, and most important,
"has not changed our long-standing policy on the matter of
sovereignty over Taiwan." That "long-standing" policy
had been one that saw the issue of sovereignty over Taiwan as
"undetermined." The Chinese, aware of this
position, will seek to cloud the issue by repeating their demand
that the United States recognize China's territorial claim to
Taiwan under the "one China principle"--a principle that the United
States does not share and never has shared.
In
Beijing, President Bush need only note that the United States has a
"one China" policy within the context of the Three
Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and President
Reagan's "Six Assurances"; all have been consistent U.S. policy for
over 20 years. If necessary, President Bush can ask the Chinese
whether they would like him to restate the U.S. defense commitment
to Taiwan or move on to other issues. "Strategic clarity" from the
President on this issue should suffice to move dialogue on to other
issues.
Addressing
Concerns About Human Rights Abuses.
In the run-up to the February summit, it is important that U.S.
policy toward China asserts American values. The President's
personal intercession in the human rights dialogue with China is
vital if progress is to be made. This was poignantly demonstrated
by Beijing's reaction to President Bush's muscular protests (via
the U.S. embassy in Beijing) regarding the death sentence for a
Hong Kong man caught smuggling Bibles into China; the charges were
reduced substantially, and the man was released from prison for
health reasons.
Unless the President places these
uncomfortable but necessary issues on the agenda for his talks with
the Chinese leaders, they will assume that he is not seriously
concerned about these issues and will gauge his demeanor in Beijing
against the U.S. domestic press reports of his reaction to that
incident. U.S. policymakers must step back from efforts simply "to
get the words right" and understand that the ultimate goal is to
help China get its "system" right.
Encouraging
Greater Cooperation in the War on Terrorism.
President Bush's forthright conversations with President
Jiang in Shanghai last October confirmed in Chinese minds that the
new President wishes China well but also means what he says. The
President must now engage Beijing in one area where there are
common interests but diverging perspectives--cooperating more fully
on the war on terror. China's cooperation already has been useful
in a number of areas. For example, China has been supportive in the
United Nations; it has shared some useful anti-terror intelligence;
it has not prevented Hong Kong from providing financial, shipping,
and other intelligence and interdiction efforts against terrorism;
and it has pledged $150 million (U.S. dollars) to Afghan
reconstruction, although details are vague.
On
the other hand, China has been highly suspicious--if not downright
paranoid--about America's new strategic presence in Central Asia, a
region Beijing considers within its own sphere of influence. On January 16, 2002, the
Liberation Army Daily quoted China's Chief of the General Staff Fu
Quanyou as warning the United States against using the war on
terrorism to dominate global affairs, saying that
"counter-terrorism should not be to used to practice hegemony."
("Hegemony" in China's diplomatic lexicon refers to the U.S. role
as the sole superpower. )
General Fu views the war on terrorism as
threatening China's geopolitical position in Asia. In the two weeks
following the September 11 attacks, China saw at least six
strategic allies, including Pakistan and Russia, join the U.S. war
effort without consulting Beijing. Another setback for China came
as Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi committed a large naval force to
support the U.S. campaign.
President Bush needs to be sensitive about
China's perceptions, but he need not apologize either for a
protracted U.S. military presence in Central Asia or for Japan's
increasing participation in Asian regional security. He should
welcome China's offer of $150 million in development aid to the new
Afghan regime, as well as its support of efforts to ease tensions
between India and Pakistan following the December 13 terrorist
attacks on the Indian Parliament House complex in New Delhi that
killed 14. President Jiang Zemin deserves recognition as a
constructive participant in the complex conflict.
Praising
Progress on Trade.
Trade, environment, and law enforcement are areas where Washington
and Beijing share congruent interests. As such, they do not require
a prominent position on the summit agenda, and President Bush
should point to them as needed to highlight areas in which the
United States and China can and do cooperate.
China's foreign trade minister said in
November that joining the WTO was a "strategic decision" by Beijing
to promote China's market reforms. He promised China would "abide
by WTO rules and honor its commitments while enjoying its rights,"
and "fully demonstrate the resolve and confidence of China to
deepen its reforms and to open further to the outside world." The terms for China's WTO
entry require it to reduce tariffs on most industrial products from
the 1997 average of 25 percent to 8 percent by January 2004. If
China follows through, the reforms will open China's massive market
to American exports of industrial goods, services, and farm
products to an unprecedented degree and strengthen the world
economy.
In
Beijing, President Bush should point out that only China's strict
adherence to its WTO commitments will help it reap the benefits of
WTO membership. The United States cannot be sympathetic if China's
entry into the WTO spawns even more disputes rather than helping to
end them as Chinese firms, government agencies, and localities
ignore even the clearest of the government's promises to open
markets.
Conclusion
On
his first official state visits to Japan, Korea, and China,
President Bush must seek ways to address America's goals of greater
security, prosperity, and peace in the vital Asia region. He must
discuss ways to strengthen alliance coordination with Japan and
Korea and to confront Beijing's proliferation activities.
On
the whole, his task is manageable. In Tokyo, the President should
voice America's support both for the economic reforms instituted by
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and for Japan's military
deployments in the war on terrorism. In Seoul, he should assure the
Koreans that America fully supports its efforts at reconciliation,
but that the United States must remain cautious in its own
engagement toward the North. North Korea is a terrorist state and
threatens regional and global security. The President must also
discuss ways to strengthen the U.S.-ROK Alliance and explain to
South Korea the clear and growing need for missile defenses.
The
President's firm resolve to fight terror and his commitment to
Taiwan forced Beijing to rethink its geopolitical position in Asia
and recently to back away from its hostile rhetoric toward Taipei.
The President should speak clearly about China's destabilizing
proliferation and missile buildup activities, invite China to
increase its cooperation in the war on terrorism, address America's
concerns about human rights abuses, and affirm China's progress on
opening its markets and access to the WTO. Finally, the
Administration, in the run-up to the summit in Beijing, should
insist that China allow the President's comments to be broadcast to
the Chinese people uncensored--which was not the case in the last
two U.S. presidential visits to Beijing.
John J. Tkacik
is Research Fellow for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and Balbina Hwang is
Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia, in the Asian Studies Center at
The Heritage Foundation.