President George W. Bush's proposed tax
cut plan would increase economic growth and make it easier to
afford the additional money required for Social Security reform.
The President's dividend tax proposal alone is expected to create
an average of 512,000 new jobs each year and increase GDP by over
$79 billion annually, according to dynamic economic estimates
prepared by The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis.
An
important but often ignored side effect of higher employment and
economic growth is the strengthening of the Social Security trust
fund due to extra payroll tax collections. Over just the first 10
years, the higher employment caused by the dividend tax proposal
would also provide over $100 billion more to the Social Security
trust fund than it is currently expected to receive. Significantly
more resources will flow to that trust fund after the first 10
years. While this economic growth will not solve or even
significantly delay Social Security's coming fiscal crisis, the
additional money will make it easier for Social Security to meet
its benefit obligations over the next several years.
Given these facts, one has to wonder why
the President's critics charge that the tax plan would damage
Social Security. Social Security is financially stable for now, but
this will not always be the case. In 2017, Social Security will
begin to pay more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes.
Unless the program is reformed, it will continue to run deficits
for at least the next 60 years. Between 2017 and 2077, Social
Security will require $25 trillion (in inflation-adjusted 2002
dollars) more than it will receive from payroll taxes just to meet
its obligations.
How the Trust
Fund Operates
The Social Security trust fund is a mechanism to pay
future benefits, not a source of actual money that can be used to
pay those benefits. Excess payroll taxes that are not needed
immediately to pay benefits are loaned to the government in return
for special-issue Treasury bonds. The bonds are really nothing more
than an IOU and have no other value than as a promise to impose
higher general revenue taxes on future workers. It is future higher
taxes that will pay Social Security benefits. The annual payroll
tax surpluses, which many thought were being used to build up a
reserve for baby boomers, have already been spent on other
government programs or to reduce the government debt.
When
an employer pays income and payroll taxes to the Treasury on behalf
of his or her employees, the employer sends in one periodic check
or electronic fund transfer that represents both the total income
taxes and the total Social Security payroll taxes that are due.
That money is all deposited into Treasury's general fund with no
distinction made between income and payroll taxes. On a regular
basis, the Treasury estimates how much of its aggregate tax
collections are due to Social Security taxes and credits the trust
fund with that amount. No money actually changes hands; this
crediting is strictly an accounting transaction. These estimates
are corrected after income tax returns show how much in payroll
taxes was actually paid in a specific year. Then individual workers
are credited with the amount that was withheld from their
paychecks.
Furthermore, Social Security benefit
checks are actually Treasury checks. Each month, Social Security
directs the Treasury to pay benefits to a list of individual
recipients and tells Treasury how much each individual is to
receive. The total amount that the Treasury pays to workers is
subtracted from the bookkeeping entry representing the Social
Security trust fund. Again, no money actually changes hands; the
funds were always in a Treasury account.
If
the bookkeeping entry shows any payroll tax funds that are not
needed to pay benefits, the Treasury issues the Social Security
Administration a special-issue Treasury bond in that amount. The
bond acts as an IOU and promises to provide general revenue funds
in that amount plus interest when Social Security needs additional
money to pay benefits. After the trust fund has been credited with
the IOUs, Social Security's extra tax collections are treated just
like any other tax and spent to pay the government's bills. That
money could be used to repay federal debt owned by the public or
spent to pay for any other type of federal program from aircraft
carriers to education research.
False Charges
That the Tax Cut Would Hurt Social Security
President Bush's plan would not reduce Social Security's
ability to pay benefits, alter the Social Security trust fund, or
change the program's projected insolvency date. Because the
proposed tax cut does not raise or lower Social Security payroll
taxes, the program would remain able to pay all benefits owed
through 2017, and its trust fund account would be credited with at
least the same amount in IOUs.
Social Security's finances are accounted
for separately from the rest of the government, and as long as the
program collects enough payroll taxes each year to meet its current
obligations, changes in other taxes do not affect its financial
outlook. Regardless of whether the tax cut plan passes or not,
excess Social Security taxes that are not needed to pay current
benefits would continue to be swept into the government's general
revenues and spent on a variety of programs just as they have been
for decades.
Similarly, unified federal budget deficits
or surpluses have no effect on Social Security's ability to pay
benefits or the amount in IOUs that will go into the Social
Security trust fund. The only change would be an estimated
additional $100 billion in trust fund IOUs from increased economic
growth. Legally, Social Security taxes must be used only for that
program--with excess revenues loaned to the government. Even though
Social Security payroll taxes are mixed in with other federal
revenues when both are received, the separate accounting of those
payroll taxes allows the program to remain unaffected. As long as
Social Security runs an annual cash flow surplus, this will remain
true.
Conclusion
Both the President and Congress should act to reform
Social Security in the very near future. Every day that they delay
only increases the eventual cost of reform. However, paying for
that reform requires the economic growth that would be created by
President Bush's tax plan. Charges that the tax plan would weaken
Social Security or transfer money out of Social Security to the
rich are simply wrong. Similarly, worries that the tax plan would
take money that is needed to pay for Social Security reform are
misplaced. What Social Security needs more than anything else is a
growing, healthy economy.
David C.
John is Research Fellow in Social Security and Financial
Institutions in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy
Studies at The Heritage Foundation.