The
talks between the United States and North Korea in Beijing ended
abruptly last week after North Korean officials declared that North
Korea possesses a nuclear arsenal. As the Bush Administration
continues to formulate a peaceful resolution to the nuclear
standoff with North Korea, it should keep in mind that its
principled policy of refusing to succumb to blackmail and pursuing
a multilateral approach has been, and will continue to be, the best
course of action.
Although North Korea's admission seemed
shocking, in reality it only confirmed what the international
community has long suspected: The North Korean regime has
flagrantly violated four international agreements and developed
nuclear weapons. While these initial meetings did not produce any
tangible results, the United States should view them as the first
step in a process of aligning the interests of regional players to
denuclearize North Korea peacefully.
The
Bush Administration should not rule out the possibility of future
talks with North Korea, as long as they are continued within a
multilateral setting and the goals are well coordinated among the
allies. Future talks should test whether or not Pyongyang is
sincerely willing to dismantle its nuclear weapons program,
recognizing that if it does so, assistance from the international
community will follow. The United States should also continue to
internationalize the problem by engaging the United Nations, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), China, and Russia.
Recent North
Korean Actions
The Beijing talks were the first between the United States
and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) since
October 2002, when North Korea admitted to conducting a major
clandestine nuclear weapons development program. This program
clearly violated both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
and the 1994 Agreed Framework, which called for North Korea to
freeze its nuclear program in exchange for two civilian light-water
nuclear reactors and heavy fuel oil. North Korea then violated the
Joint Declaration on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and
the International Atomic Energy Agency Safeguards Agreement by
reactivating its plutonium facility in Yongbyon and expelling IAEA
monitors.
Since initiating these provocative
actions, North Korea has consistently demanded face-to-face
meetings with the United States, despite the Bush Administration's
position that it would address North Korea only within a
multilateral setting. Then, in an about-face, North Korea agreed to
meet with the United States in a multilateral forum.
U.S.
insistence on a multilateral resolution to North Korea's nuclear
proliferation is a necessity because it is not a bilateral issue;
North Korea's provocations threaten the stability of not only the
region, but indeed the entire global community. Moreover, any
framework to address the North's nuclear program will require, at a
minimum, the participation and cooperation of North Korea's
regional neighbors to ensure Pyongyang's compliance.
Goals for the
Bush Administration
As the Bush Administration formulates the next steps to
end the nuclear standoff with North Korea, it should consider the
following actions to achieve the immediate goal: convincing North
Korea that it must cease its nuclear programs, including both its
plutonium-based weapons program in Yongbyon and its clandestine,
highly enriched uranium program.
- Engage in active
shuttle diplomacy with regional players to coordinate
strategy
Although South Korea, Japan, and Russia--the other major
regional powers with direct interests in resolving the nuclear
issue--were not present at the meetings in Beijing, each country
has some influence with North Korea. Thus, the Bush Administration
should seek their support in coordinating pressure on North Korea.
The Administration should also coordinate with other allies, such
as Australia, Canada, and members of the European Union, that have
diplomatic relations with North Korea, encouraging them to base
their relations with Pyongyang on the status of its nuclear
programs.
- Work with
regional players to establish future meetings
South Korean officials are scheduled to meet with their
North Korean counterparts in Pyongyang this week. The U.S. should
encourage such meetings and use them to establish the channels of
communication for future multilateral interactions between the U.S.
and North Korea. South Korea should insist that North Korea abandon
its nuclear programs.
- Expand future
talks to include the active participation of South Korea, Japan,
and Russia
The United States should make clear to North Korea and
China that any permanent solution must include the active
participation of the other key regional players. This is critical
not only because these countries must play a crucial role in
overseeing North Korea's denuclearization, but also because North
Korea's strategy has long been to divide the interests of America
and its allies, South Korea and Japan. Furthermore, no country has
a greater interest in a peaceful resolution to tensions on the
Korean peninsula than South Korea, and it must play a central role
in any solution that promotes stability on the peninsula.
- Seek a United
Nations resolution that condemns North Korea's violation of
previous U.N. agreements
and urges North Korea's compliance by returning to the NPT and
abiding by IAEA safeguards, verifiably ceasing plutonium
reprocessing at the Yongbyon facility, and ending the highly
enriched uranium nuclear programs.
Conclusion
Last week's meetings in Beijing are an important, but
preliminary, step toward resolving North Korea's nuclear problem
peacefully. The United States should approach the road ahead with
cautious optimism, keeping expectations modest.
If
history is any predictor, North Korea will continue to act
provocatively while simultaneously making conciliatory gestures
designed to divide Washington from Seoul and Tokyo. Such behavior
by Pyonyang is to be expected, but observers should not use the
North's recalcitrance as the short-term measure of the Bush
Administration's steadfast approach to North Korea.0 Regardless of
Pyongyang's machinations to obfuscate and confuse the issues, the
Bush Administration should remain focused on the long-term goal of
peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and in the region.
Balbina Y.
Hwang is Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian
Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.