The
visits to Washington of Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas on
July 25 and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on July 29 will
focus the attention of the Bush Administration on the lagging
Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. President Bush's ambitious
"road map" for peace, which calls for a series of
confidence-building measures as a prelude to creation of a
Palestinian state and a final peace agreement by 2005, is beset by
diplomatic gridlock. As it seeks to break the logjam, the
Administration should maintain its moral clarity and adhere to its
principled stand against terrorism of any stripe. It should press
Prime Minister Abbas to dismantle Palestinian terrorist groups,
which pose the biggest obstacle to peace. As long as those
terrorists remain free to organize attacks, the road map will lead
to little more than a fragile cease-fire, not a genuine and lasting
peace.
Diplomatic
Stalemate
Sharon and Abbas, both of whom accepted the road map in
principle, made little progress at a tense summit meeting on July
20. Abbas pressed for further Israeli withdrawals from territory
occupied after the September 2000 onset of the intifada (uprising),
release of the estimated 7,700 Palestinian prisoners held by
Israel, and the dismantling of unauthorized Israeli settlements.
Sharon, who has withdrawn Israeli forces from parts of Gaza and
Bethlehem and agreed to release several hundred prisoners, is
dragging his feet on further withdrawals and prisoner releases
until the Palestinian Authority cracks down on terrorist groups as
required by the road map.
Abbas has publicly pledged to stop
terrorism but has avoided a direct confrontation with Hamas,
Palestine Islamic Jihad, and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, which
have spearheaded the terrorist war against Israel. Abbas persuaded
the three groups to commit to suspend terrorist attacks for at
least 90 days (the Al Aqsa Martyr's brigades pledged a six-month
cease-fire). Yasser Arafat, the President of the Palestinian
Authority, ostensibly "banned" terrorist organizations by a decree
issued on July 20. But this was merely a re-issuing of a toothless
1998 ban on "illegal organizations that encourage violence." Arafat
did little to follow through on the decree then and is unlikely to
follow through now.
To
salvage the floundering road map peace plan, the Bush
Administration should:
- Pressure the
Palestinian Authority to systematically root out terrorism
The road map clearly calls for Palestinians to take
concrete action against terrorist groups, not merely proclaim a
cease-fire. Such a temporary measure only allows the terrorists to
re-organize, re-arm, and recover from Israeli counter-terrorism
measures.
- Marginalize
Arafat
No Israeli government will take further risks for peace
unless the Palestinians comply with their commitments to halt
terrorism. Arafat, who has made a career of terrorism, has
repeatedly demonstrated that he cannot be trusted to do so. Arafat
has sought to undermine Abbas's authority and has criticized him
publicly for failing to extract more concessions from Israel. To
strengthen Abbas relative to Arafat, Washington should encourage
all Western and Arab aid donors to earmark their aid for Prime
Minister Abbas's Ministry of Finance, which has made great strides
in cleaning up the corruption of Arafat's cronies, not to Arafat's
office. Washington also should press European and Arab leaders to
downgrade their relations with Arafat, who was excluded from recent
summits, and upgrade relations with Prime Minister Abbas to bolster
his international standing.
- Remain steadfast
to the principles outlined in President Bush's June 24, 2002,
speech on Middle East peace
The road map is more of a wish list of negotiating goals
than a blueprint for peace. Much arduous diplomatic spadework is
needed to flesh out the details. President Bush has promised to
"ride herd" on the process to keep it going. But he should refrain
from intervening unless absolutely necessary and put the burden on
Israel and the Palestinians to work things out. Meanwhile, Bush
must ride herd on the three other members of "the quartet" that
proposed the road map: Russia, the European Union, and the United
Nations. All three are to varying degrees pro-Palestinian and will
seek to redraw the road map to ingratiate themselves with the Arab
world. The Bush Administration must stick to principles laid out in
the President's June 24, 2002, speech, which declared that the
violence had to end before peace could be negotiated and stressed
the importance of developing a Palestinian leadership untainted by
terrorism and committed to the rule of law.
- Rule out the
commitment of American peacekeeping troops
Several proposals have been made for the deployment of
American peacekeeping troops to enforce a peace agreement. But such
peacekeeping troops would not be able to halt terrorism and could
become a lightning rod for terrorist attacks. Moreover, the United
States can ill afford to undertake another open-ended peacekeeping
mission when its armed forces are stretched thin in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and elsewhere in the war on terrorism.
- Drop unrealistic
negotiating deadlines
The target date for achieving phase I of the plan already
has been missed, just as almost every deadline for the Oslo peace
process was missed. The negotiations should not be constrained by
artificial timetables. Peace will take a generation to build. It is
unrealistic to compress negotiations into a three-year window.
Conclusion
Although a cease-fire is a welcome step, a much more
robust Palestinian policy is needed to disarm and dismantle
terrorist groups to give peace a chance. Prime Minister Abbas
currently does not have the will or capability to crack down on
terrorist groups and needs the support of Arab states and the West
to isolate them and sideline Arafat.
This requires more time. The Bush
Administration should keep its eye on what needs to be done to
secure a genuine peace--the dismantling of Palestinian terrorist
groups--and not bend its principles to prop up a tenuous
cease-fire.
James
Phillips is Research Fellow in Middle Eastern Affairs in
the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies at the Heritage Foundation.