The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate Medicare prescription drug bill will cost $400 billion over the next 10 years. This cost, however, is not the whole story. 

Since Medicare prescription drugs is a new entitlement that will continue indefinitely, Jeff Lemieux of the Progressive Policy Institute calculated how much of an increase in actual spending as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that would mean by the year 2030. 

In the words of Lemieux, "…the cost impact of these bills is more than a one-time bump. It is a permanent acceleration of spending growth."[1] See chart below:

Source: Lemieux, Jeff, Drug Benefit Costs 1 Percent of GDP by 2030 (If CBO's Right), Centrists.org, June 25, 2003.

In the year 2030, 1 percent of GDP is projected to be $481 billion. Taking into consideration projected population growth, that means a family of four's share of the new prescription drug benefit will be $5,485 just for the year 2030.[2]

Taking into consideration that 1 percent of GDP in 2001 was slightly more than $100 billion, if you take that and divide it by U.S. households in 2001, on average, a family of four contributed roughly $1,439 to the GDP. In 2001, consumers spent, on average, $1,142 on meat, poultry, fish, and eggs combined and $1,810 on gasoline and motor oil.[3]

Considering the average household is projected to spend $5,485 on the new prescription drug benefit in the year 2030, The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis has projected how much consumers will spend on those necessary goods above in the year 2030 for comparison.[4]

In 2030, under the Senate bill a family of four's share of the cost of prescription drugs for seniors will be more than they will total amount they will spend on meat, poultry, fish, and eggs and gasoline and motor oil for their own family.[5]

Intern Ian Ellis also contributed to this piece.