The United States and five other nations (China, Japan, Russia
and both Koreas) concluded three days of talks in Beijing with
seemingly little progress towards the ultimate goal of eliminating
North Korea's nuclear weapons programs. Nevertheless, the talks did
accomplish an important goal for the United States: delivering the
unequivocal and united message to North Korea that its neighbors
will not tolerate a nuclear Korean peninsula.
Unfortunately, North Korea used the multilateral forum to
deliver a message of its own: that it possesses nuclear weapons and
the capabilities to deliver them, and that it intends to prove so
to the world by conducting a nuclear test. Such threats from
Pyongyang were not unexpected and are consistent with its
diplomatic strategy of trying to raise the stakes to win
concessions. North Korea also stated its long-standing position
that it is willing to end its nuclear ambitions in exchange for a
security guarantee, energy assistance, and diplomatic recognition
from the United States. But Washington has remained steadfast in
its stance that North Korea must first act to verifiably and
irreversibly dismantle its nuclear programs.
What happens next? The six
parties have indicated that they may meet again in two months for
the second round of talks. But these are contingent on whether or
not North Korea chooses to increase tensions by conducting a
nuclear test or firing a ballistic missile. In the meantime, the
United States can take a number of measures as it prepares for the
next diplomatic encounter:
- Consider
bringing North Korea's nuclear violations to the United Nations
Security Council for action, including potential
sanctions.
- Continue
preparations for implementing the Proliferation Security Initiative
(PSI). This is a multilateral approach to limiting North
Korea's threatening behavior-including the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction and related delivery systems via sea, air, and
land interdiction.
- Convince North
Korea's neighbors to exert their influence on Pyongyang. The
meeting in Beijing may have solidified the loose coalition of
interests among North Korea's neighbors. China's influence, as a
traditional ally of North Korea, is most obvious with its provision
of basic food and energy needs to the impoverished regime. But
South Korea and Japan can do more to reduce their trade with North
Korea. South Korea, in particular, should be urged to scrutinize
its policies of engagement that have engendered little reciprocity
from North Korea.
The road
ahead is a challenging one as the United States continues to
exhaust all diplomatic measures to end the North Korean nuclear
threat. The four major powers in Northeast Asia and the United
States should continue to send the message to Pyongyang that the
regime's continued efforts to pursue nuclear weapons will only
ensure its demise, rather than guarantee its future survival.
Ultimately, North Korea's future is in its own hands. It can either
choose greater isolation and hardship or utilize the opportunity to
coexist with its neighbors peacefully in the region.