Kudos to the
President for announcing his desire to fix Social Security by
allowing individuals to take ownership of their own retirement
benefits through personal accounts. Even before the President
announced his vision for an ownership society, debate about the
pros and cons of such a system had already heated up. Critics
are already saying that it will cost too much to adopt
personal retirement accounts. The truth is that a system of
personal retirement accounts will involve up-front transition
costs, but it will actually save money in the long run. How much
depends on the size and structure of the accounts, but across
proposed plans, savings average 66 percent of the current system's
future costs.
Social
Security is built on the promise the federal government has made to
retirees that it will pay them a certain level of retirement
benefits and the promise made to workers that they too will receive
these same benefits when they retire in the future. Workers and
their employers pay into Social Security with every paycheck
through the Social Security payroll taxes. But this money is used
to pay out current benefits. As individuals continue to work, they
accumulate bigger and bigger promises from the government for their
future retirement benefits. But the total cost of Social Security's
promises far exceeds the value of future payroll taxes, leaving the
government-and tomorrow's taxpayers-with a massive obligation, an
obligation that is unfunded.
The
most recent report of the Social Security Trustees puts that
obligation at $27 trillion. In other words, the system will cost
$27 trillion more than payroll taxes will raise to pay benefits
over the near and long term. Looked at another way, Congress would
need to collect and invest an additional $5 trillion today in order
to pay off this obligation in the future. Yet critics cite
transition costs as a reason to dismiss personal accounts without
addressing the massive obligation the Social Security program faces
today.
Think
of transition costs for converting to a system of personal accounts
as the amount of general revenue needed to make the system whole.
Rep. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC), Rep. Nick Smith
(R-MI), Reps. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) and Charlie Stenholm (D-TX), Rep.
Paul Ryan (R-WI), and Rep. Sam Johnson (R-TX) have introduced plans
to create personal accounts as described by the President.
Transition costs for these plans, as estimated by the Social
Security Administration, average from $7 to $8 trillion. Doing
nothing-continuing with Social Security as it exists today-will
cost $27 trillion.
Ignoring
the costs of the current system is nothing if not disingenuous.
Should a family forsake refinancing a mortgage because there would
be costs involved, even though the family could save tens of
thousands of dollars by refinancing and taking advantage of lower
interest rates? Rejecting Social Security reform and private
retirement accounts on the basis of transition costs is the same
flawed argument.
One
reason that Social Security is in the mess that it is today is
because it is financed on a pay-as-you-go basis. Social Security
operates without any recognition of the obligations that the
program is accumulating. Today Social Security generates a surplus
in terms of cash flow. But the program has huge unfunded
promises-promises that total $27 trillion-lurking in the future.
Congress ignores the cost of these promises because it budgets the
same way-considering only one year's tax revenues and one year's
expenses. Congress does not consider Social Security's promises and
its future liabilities past an arbitrary five or ten year window.
This must changed for Congress to address the federal government's
finances in a transparent way.
Lawmakers
should not think that they have the luxury of time on their side.
Whoever is elected President in November will preside over the
retirement of the first of the baby boom generation on January 1,
2008. Social Security's surplus will stop growing in 2009,
beginning the fast decline into a sea of red ink. The longer
Congress waits to fix Social Security, the more expensive it will
be. Kudos to President Bush for recognizing the urgency of
reform.
Alison
Acosta Fraser is Director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for
Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.