President Alexandr Lukashenka of Belarus
has added a referendum to the October 17 parliamentary elections,
asking Belarusians to allow him to participate in the next
presidential election (prohibited by his own tailor-made
constitution) and to remove the presidential term limits from the
constitution.
Lukashenka, an authoritarian, anti-Western
populist and former collective farm boss, took office illegally
after the 1996 constitutional coup. If the October 17 referendum
passes, he will have taken a giant step toward becoming a
"president for life"--an unseemly sight in democratic Europe. Not
only could he run for a third term in 2006, but for an
indeterminate number of terms thereafter. This would allow him to
remain in office indefinitely--particularly given his policy of
preventing political parties from competing in parliamentary
elections, having equal access to the media, or placing their own
observers on local and regional electoral commissions as provided
by law.
The
authoritarian Belarus has become a near-pariah state in Europe,
especially after Lukashenka caused several opposition leaders to
"disappear" in the late 1990s. Sources in Minsk confirmed that the
dictator's henchmen murdered them. The U.S. and the EU countries
responded by jointly agreeing to deny travel visas to a list of
Belarusian officials from Lukashenka's inner circle. This may be a
step in the right direction, but it is insufficient. Lukashenka can
simply retaliate by banning U.S. and EU officials from visiting
Belarus.
Moscow
Apprehensive. Some in the Putin Administration are also
apprehensive about Lukashenka and resent the basket-case Belarusian
economy that is an albatross around their country's neck. Moreover,
the Putin Administration is aware that Lukashenka nurses an
ambition to engineer a unification between Russia and Belarus in
such a way that he could run for president of Russia. In fact,
Lukashenka has expressed his admiration for Hitler and Stalin.
Russians should know that, if they absorb
Belarus or even tolerate the abuses of power, the influence of
Lukashenka's authoritarianism may exacerbate their own country's
uneasy relationship with democracy. Furthermore, the world's
indifference to Lukashenka's power grab may encourage President
Vladimir Putin's entourage to advise Putin to remain in power after
2008, when his term ends.
Cooperation with
Europe. The U.S. and Europe have numerous interests at
stake in Belarus, including how its failed democracy may influence
its neighbors, particularly Russia and Ukraine, which will elect
its next president on October 31. Belarus is also suspected of
selling weapons to rogue regimes, such as Iran and Saddam's Iraq.
Anti-Western arms dealers in Minsk may also be selling weapons to
terrorist groups around the world, including those fighting in
Iraq.
However, the West has some powerful tools
for fighting the Belarusian dictator and his henchmen. In the past,
the U.S. has worked with allies such as Italy and the U.K. to stop
overseas shipments of Ukrainian arms to the Balkans in violation of
international sanctions. Furthermore, the U.S. has never recognized
an absolute sovereign immunity defense, which means heads of state
can be prosecuted under U.S. law. The U.S. also has investigated
leaders from the post-Soviet states, including Ukrainian President
Leonid Kuchma (and most of his senior team) and the late
Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliev. Former Ukrainian Prime Minister
Pavlo Lazarenko and former Panamanian President Manuel Noriega have
been convicted in U.S. courts. There are many opportunities for
Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, and Brussels to cooperate on
Belarus.
On
October 6, Congress passed the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004 (H.R.
854), sponsored by Representative Chris Smith (R-NJ) and others, to
fund a broad range of measures to support democracy in Belarus.
Although this is a beginning, the executive branch and Congress
need to do more. Specifically, they should:
- Denounce publicly Lukashenka's
violations of the constitution and electoral procedures, and the
State Department should amplify its criticism of Belarus's flawed
political system.
- Declare
, with the EU, that the referendum and parliamentary elections are
illegitimate if observers from the Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe find election falsification or other
violations.
- Use
domestic and international law enforcement agencies, such as
Interpol, in cooperation with EU members, to coordinate criminal
investigations into homicides, money laundering, and illegal arms
trading linked to the Lukashenka regime.
- Investigate the disappearances of
Lukashenka's political opponents, provided there is a
jurisdictional nexus to the U.S. and/or Europe. Both the U.S.
Justice Department and its European counterparts can do so.
Moreover, Europe and the U.S. could initiate criminal proceedings
against those in the president's circle who ordered and
participated in the murder of opposition politicians and
journalists.
- Seize
assets of Lukashenka and his inner circle through criminal
proceedings against illegal arms sales and money laundering
operations if Belarus violated U.S. or international sanctions. The
U.S. and EU would be entitled to enforce such sanctions even if the
violations did not occur in America or Europe.
- Fund ,
together with the EU, an international broadcasting operation by
opposition radio and television stations from countries around
Belarus, and expand people-to-people and educational
exchanges.
- Consult
with Russia regarding possible political changes that would make
Belarus more democratic and predictable. Such a coordinated effort
would benefit Russia by making the transit route for Russian gas to
Europe less prone to Lukashenka's interference and would eliminate
the need for Russia to support the Belarusian economy with
subsidized natural gas at a cost of over $2 billion per year.
Conclusion. Lukashenka thinks he is the
permanent ruler of Belarus, but the people of Belarus deserve
better. From day one, the next Congress and Administration should
provide leadership to help make Belarus free.
Ariel Cohen,
Ph.D., is Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies
in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies at The Heritage Foundation. The author thanks Scott Horton,
a partner at the law firm of Patterson, Belknap, Webb & Tyler,
and Paul Rosenzweig, a Senior Legal Research Fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, for their assistance with this paper.