After many years of concealing and lying
about its extensive nuclear programs, Iran has reached an
arrangement with three European Union countries--Britain, France,
and Germany--to freeze its uranium enrichment efforts while it
negotiates a possible future agreement to forgo the development of
nuclear weapons in return for a large package of economic carrots,
including support for its nuclear program. This easily reversible
tactical retreat by Tehran appears to be designed to mollify the
board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
before its November 25 meeting, at which the board could condemn
Iran's suspicious nuclear efforts and refer the matter to the U.N.
Security Council for possible sanctions.
The
Bush Administration, which has long pushed for sanctions against
Iran's nuclear efforts, should now seek to limit severely the scope
of foreign cooperation with Iran's nuclear program in the agreement
that will be negotiated to guarantee that Iran does not obtain
nuclear weapons.
The Triumph of
Hope over Experience. Recent revelations have bolstered
long-held suspicions that Iran is using its nuclear power program
to mask a clandestine nuclear weapons program. In 2002, an Iranian
opposition group exposed the existence of a secret Iranian nuclear
facility at Natanz, which is part of a pattern of activities by
Iran that is almost certainly inconsistent with its obligations
under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This led to an IAEA
investigation that subsequently forced Iran to admit that it had
concealed other troubling nuclear activities, including extensive
efforts to acquire the fissile material needed to build a nuclear
weapon.
To
dissuade Tehran from continuing its efforts to attain nuclear
weapons, Britain, France, and Germany have offered Iran substantial
economic incentives, including access to imported nuclear fuel, in
return for suspending production of enriched uranium, which could
create fuel for nuclear reactors or the explosive material for
nuclear weapons. The EU would also resume talks on a lucrative
trade deal and support Iran's bid to join the World Trade
Organization.
Iran
cannot be trusted to comply with its new nuclear commitments. A
similar Iran-EU deal negotiated a year ago fell apart after only
six months. Although Iran pledged to suspend production of enriched
uranium and to submit to more intensive inspections of its nuclear
facilities, Tehran continued to take steps to obtain the fissile
material necessary to build a weapon. This time, the Iranians have
made clear that the suspension is only a voluntary step. European
diplomats expect that the negotiations will take up to two years.
In the meantime, Iran could exploit its position by undertaking a
wide variety of dangerous nuclear development activities with
foreign cooperation.
Europe's effort to bribe Iran to comply
with its NPT commitments is the wrong approach because it allows
Iran to use the NPT as a cover for its illegitimate nuclear weapons
program. This loophole results from misinterpreting the NPT as
entitling countries such as Iran to wide access to nuclear
technology. However, the treaty allows such access only if the
recipient government unambiguously renounces--in both words and
deeds--nuclear weapons. Moreover, the scope of foreign cooperation
is left to the judgment of the supplier states, which have a
responsibility to make prudent judgments regarding the
proliferation risks of any support provided to Iran. Iran's
activities in recent years should disqualify it for significant
foreign cooperation.
What the U.S.
Should Do. Iran should not be allowed to use the NPT in a
way that defeats the NPT's purpose. The Bush Administration should
insist that:
- The appearance
of a diplomatic breakthrough should not be used to mask a festering
proliferation problem. Any deal should restrict Iran's
access to nuclear technologies and materials. Iran is not entitled
to the broad array of technologies and facilities that it seeks,
and the Europeans must be careful not to allow Iran to define any
nuclear assistance as an entitlement. This will require the
Europeans to lead a broad international effort to impose severe
limits on what Iran may receive and to withdraw some of the prior
cooperative arrangements, including arrangements to fuel its
Bushehr reactor.
- Iranian
compliance must be verifiable. The United States should
demand safeguards beyond Iran's voluntary additional protocol
agreement with the IAEA. The U.S. should insist that Iran allow
inspections by U.S. and EU teams in addition to IAEA
inspectors.
- Iranian
noncompliance should automatically trigger economic
sanctions. At the November 25 meeting of the IAEA board of
governors, Washington should press for a resolution that would
automatically terminate any international cooperation with Iran's
nuclear program if Iran interferes with safeguard arrangements or
is found to be operating a clandestine facility. The resolution
should also call for broad-based economic sanctions under these
circumstances.
- The NPT should
be reinterpreted. Any deal with Iran should include a
permanent renunciation of nuclear enrichment and reprocessing
capabilities. However, Iran is unlikely to accept this unless it
also applies to other countries. The Bush Administration needs to
continue the effort to deny enrichment and reprocessing equipment
and technologies to states that do not already have functioning
facilities. (This effort is the subject of ongoing deliberations in
Nuclear Suppliers Group meetings.)
Conclusion. Short of military action or
regime change in Tehran, the U.S. cannot immediately halt Iran's
nuclear weapons program. However, the U.S. can refuse to support a
charade that contains the same flaws as the 1994 Agreed Framework
with North Korea, which masked a proliferation crisis while giving
the proliferator the means to accelerate its weapons program. The
Bush Administration should make clear that it will work closely
with the European negotiating partners to ensure that any agreement
with Iran has strong verification measures and would not enhance
Iran's nuclear efforts if Tehran later reneges on the agreement.
The United States, like its friends and allies in the region,
should not simply ignore any efforts by Iran to proceed with its
nuclear programs.
James Phillips is Research Fellow in
Middle Eastern Studies and Baker Spring is F.
M. Kirby Research Fellow in National Security Policy in the Kathryn
and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.