During the Bush
Administration's first four years, the White House pursued a
market-oriented tax reduction strategy-with
much of the effort, especially in 2003, focused on marginal rate
reductions to boost economic growth and increase international
competitiveness.
In his proposed
budget for fiscal year 2006, the President focuses his efforts on
slowing the growth of government. This is the correct decision,
both because less government will boost economic growth by leaving
more of the nation's resources in the productive sector of the
economy and because less government will facilitate pro-growth
policies, such as:
-
Making the 2001
and 2003 tax cuts permanent;
-
Creating
personal retirement accounts to improve Social Security; and
-
Reforming the
tax code to move closer to a simple and fair flat tax.
The
Administration's budget, while not perfect, is a good first step
for fiscal discipline. It eliminates or reduces some 150 federal
programs, slows discretionary spending, and actually reduces
non-defense discretionary spending. It also begins to address
problems in entitlement programs, such as Social Security and
Medicaid. There is more that could be done, to be sure, such as
reducing or eliminating more programs rather than giving them
additional money. Still, the discipline displayed in this budget
should be applauded.
The Goal is Less Government, Not a
Balanced Budget
Government
spending should be significantly reduced. It has grown far too
quickly in recent years, and most of the new spending is for
purposes other than homeland security and national defense.
Combined with rising entitlement costs associated with the looming
retirement of the baby boom generation, America is heading in the
wrong direction. To avoid becoming an uncompetitive European-style
welfare state like France or Germany the United States must adopt a
responsible fiscal policy based on smaller government.
Budgetary restraint should be viewed as an
opportunity to make an economic virtue out of fiscal necessity.
Simply stated, most government spending has a negative economic
impact. Every dollar that the government spends necessarily
means that there is one less dollar in the productive sector of the
economy. This dampens growth because economic forces guide the
allocation of resources in the private sector, whereas political
forces dominate when politicians and bureaucrats decide how money
is spent. Moreover, portions of the federal budget are used to
finance activities that directly undermine productive economic
activity. Many regulatory agencies have comparatively small
budgets, for instance, but they impose large costs on the economy's
productive sector. Another problem is that government programs
reduce economic growth and diminish national output because they
promote misallocation or underutilization of resources-either by
subsidizing bad behavior, such as unemployment, or penalizing good
behavior, such as work and saving.
Unfortunately, too many policymakers want to
treat the symptom-deficits-rather
than the problem-excessive spending. The budget deficit is not the
critical variable. The key is the size of government, not how it is
financed. Taxes and deficits are both harmful, but the real problem
is that government is taking money from the private sector and
spending it in ways that often are counterproductive. The need to
reduce spending would still exist-and be just as compelling-if the
federal budget were in surplus. Fiscal policy should focus on
reducing the level of government spending, with particular emphasis
on those programs that yield the lowest benefits and impose the
highest costs.
There is very little evidence that budget
deficits have an impact on the economy, but there are dozens of
academic studies showing that economic growth slows when government
gets bigger. In any event, policymakers who claim to be worried
about budget deficits can take comfort in the fact that even a
modicum of fiscal discipline-holding spending increases to 4
percent annually-will cut the deficit by more than 50 percent in
just five years.
Controlling
federal spending is particularly important because of
globalization. It is increasingly easy today for jobs and capital
to migrate from one nation to another. This means that the reward
for good policy is greater then it has ever been.
The Bush Budget: Much-Needed
Spending Discipline
The President's
budget is a step in the right direction. Most importantly, the
White House is proposing to slow the growth of government. As the
budget states, the proper goal is "Restraining Federal spending so
that more of our resources remain in the hands of the private
sector." This is achieved in the budget by:
-
Reducing the
burden of federal government spending from 20.3 percent of GDP in
2005 to 19.0 percent of GDP in 2010. Government would still be
bigger, as a share of the economy, than it was in 2001, but the
trend would be in the right direction.
-
Reducing
non-defense discretionary spending from 3.8 percent of GDP to 3.0
percent of GDP, the lowest level since data was first collected in
1962.
-
Holding in check
so-called mandatory spending, which would climb to 11.0 percent of
GDP from 10.9 percent of GDP. This would be an all-time high, but
the upward trajectory would be significantly slowed.
-
Slowing the
growth of government spending, a key long-term economic
threat.
The Bush Budget: Pro-growth tax
policy
From its
inception, the Administration has fought to reduce the federal tax
burden. At the Administration's behest, Congress passed significant
tax reductions in 2001 and 2003, helping to lower the aggregate tax
burden. More importantly, the tax cuts lowered marginal tax rates
on productive economic behavior. Lower income tax rates and
reductions in the double-taxation of dividends and capital gains
are important steps in the direction of a pro-growth tax
system.
The good news is
that these "supply-side" tax cuts have boosted economic growth and
international competitiveness. The bad news is that these tax cuts
are scheduled to expire-some at the end of 2008 and others at the
end of 2010. This would mean a big future tax increase. The fiscal
year 2006 budget seeks to protect the economy from this fate.
Specifically, the President proposes to:
-
Make the
existing tax cuts permanent, especially the lower income tax rates
and the reductions in the double-taxation of dividends and capital
gains.
-
Reform the tax
system to bring America closer to a simple and fair flat tax.
The
Administration's budget documents also prove-albeit not
deliberately-that not all tax cuts are created equal. The
President's 2001 tax cut had many good features, but the
"supply-side" components, such as lower marginal tax rates and
death tax repeal, were postponed until 2004, 2006, and 2010. Income
tax rates were reduced in the short term by one percentage point,
but the bulk of the tax relief was in the form of economically
ineffective tax rebates and tax credits. The 2003 tax cut, by
contrast, was much more effective since it resulted in immediate
reductions in the double-taxation of dividends and capital gains
and the immediate implementation of the income tax rate reductions
that were scheduled to take effect in 2004 and 2006. Because the
2003 tax cut was better designed, it had better effects:
-
The economy grew
much faster after 2003 tax cut, expanding roughly twice as fast as
it did after the 2001 tax cut.
-
The faster
growth following the 2003 tax cut has had a "revenue-feedback"
effect. Because of a stronger economy, federal tax revenues in 2004
jumped by more than $90 billion, compared to 2003, and they are
expected to rise by more than $160 billion this year (an estimate
shared by the Congressional Budget Office).
The Next Step
The federal
government is too big and it costs too much. The President's budget
takes a necessary step in the right direction by asking Congress to
control the growth of federal spending. But good proposals will not
lead to a better economy unless they are matched by strong action.
The President must use his veto pen to ensure that spending does
not rise by one penny above what he has proposed.
Daniel J.
Mitchell is McKenna Senior Fellow in Political Economy at The
Heritage Foundation.