For every complex
problem, there is at least one solution that is simple, easy to
explain, and completely wrong. One example was a man who wrote his
congressman that the way to solve the deficit problem was just to
print more money. Surprisingly, this solution has actually been
tried by several countries, and in every case the resulting
inflation has just about destroyed their economy. However, these
simple "solutions" keep appearing.
In the case of
Social Security, the latest "solution" that completely misses the
point comes from Representative Martin Olav Sabo (D) of Minnesota.
Rep. Sabo thinks that the way to solve Social Security's
approaching financial problems is to have the government pay a
higher interest rate on the special-issue bonds-really just IOUs-in
the Social Security Trust Fund. Instead of paying 4.1
percent interest after inflation-the average interest rate on these
bonds over the last decade-Rep. Sabo wants to pay 4.7 percent after
inflation.
If that is done, he says, all of Social Security's problems vanish
into the mist. Sounds simple doesn't it?
Rep. Sabo likes
this idea of paying more interest to the Trust Fund so much that he
has actually introduced a bill, H.R. 1123, to do just that. The
fact that these IOUs are merely promises to pay back money the
government borrowed from the Trust Fund, and have no other value,
seems to have escaped Rep. Sabo's notice…or maybe not.
Usually, people
who suggest these simplistic non-solutions have the charm of having
no idea what they are talking about. But this does not apply to
Rep. Sabo, a former chairman of the House Budget Committee. He
knows the facts about Social Security as well as anyone else on
Capitol Hill. He also knows that the Social Security's so-called
Trust Fund is vastly different from what most of us think when we
hear about trust funds.
Most of us think
that a trust fund is something filled with high-grade stocks and
bonds that are carefully managed to produce income. This is not
true in the case of Social Security. Even President Clinton's
Office of Management and Budget agreed that Social Security's trust
funds are filled with nothing but promises to use other federal tax
money to pay Social Security benefits once the baby boomers'
retirement forces the system to have to pay out more than it takes
in. They are IOUs, pure and
simple.
Starting in 2018,
the Treasury is going to have to retire the IOUs by giving Social
Security money from other taxes. By 2022, those payments will reach
over $100 billion a year (in today's dollars without inflation), by
2027, they will reach over $200 billion a year, and by 2033, they
will reach $300 billion annually. The annual cost just keeps going
up after that.
These annual
payments mean that there will be less money available for other
programs dealing with such things as education, health, and
defense. As the annual deficits rise, our children will have
unpleasant decisions to make. Would they rather pay for programs
that benefit their kids or their parents?
So what good would
it do to raise the interest rate on the IOUs as Rep. Sabo proposes?
All that it would do is to increase the amount of IOUs. Instead of
the IOUs running out in 2042, as they are scheduled to now, they
would last for years after that-until 2080 according the Sabo
office. Our children and grandchildren would still face the same
problems with trying to come up with the money to pay off the
IOUs.
If Sabo's approach
really did work, why stop at 4.7 percent? Why not raise the
interest rate on the Trust Fund IOUs to 10 percent and increase
retirement benefits? Even better, why not raise them to 30 percent
and allow all Americans to retire rich? Either is just as
misleading and irresponsible as Sabo's plan.
David C.
John is Research Fellow in Social Security and Financial
Institutions in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy
Studies at The Heritage Foundation.