Condoleezza Rice
will make her first trip to Asia as U.S. Secretary of State next
week, visiting India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Korea, Japan,
and China. In Northeast Asia, North Korea and the resolution of the
nuclear issue will dominate the discussions, while in South Asia,
the ongoing war on terrorism and Kashmir will be the primary focus.
With President Bush's pledge to emphasize diplomacy in his second
term, Secretary Rice's visit to Asia will be an important addition
to recent her trips to Europe and the Middle East. While the
purpose of the visit is for Secretary Rice to introduce herself to
the leaders of these six countries, she will also have a full
agenda of specific bilateral issues in each country:
Pakistan:
President Pervez Musharraf is a tested ally in the war on
terrorism, but he is also a military dictator and many intelligence
analysts still believe Osama bin Laden is hiding out somewhere
along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Rice must continue to press for
democracy and for the suppression of terrorism in Pakistan while
recognizing Islamabad's contributions to the war on terrorism.
The India-Pakistan
ceasefire over Kashmir has now held for more than a year, but the
talks to move from a ceasefire to a peace agreement seem little
closer to resolution than when they began. The obstacle is that
neither side has the political will to compromise on Kashmir.
Pakistan will not permit the resolution of non-Kashmir-related
disputes, such as cross-border trade and communications, until the
Kashmir issue is resolved. India refuses to permit outside or
third-party negotiators to help the two countries find common
ground. Nevertheless, life along the line of control that divides
the two countries seems to be improving. Cross-border terrorist
attacks from Pakistan into India have been reduced significantly
from pre-ceasefire levels, there have been fewer cross-border
artillery duels, and perhaps soon there will be a return of
cross-border bus service. Although resolution seems disappointingly
distant, Rice must resist the temptation to meddle. To establish
useful American intervention both India and Pakistan must want
American involvement and that is not the case now. Unwelcome
stirring of the pot, while the peace is holding, may upset the
positive gains made by the current negotiation process.
India: The
economic, political, and security ties between the United States
and India have advanced by leaps and bounds over the last decade,
but President Bush has not yet visited the world's largest
democracy. A presidential visit to India would bind the budding
friendship, demonstrate the President's sincerity in supporting
democracy in a region plagued by repressive governments and provide
political capital to Indian politicians that want greater
U.S.-India ties. Secretary Rice should lay the groundwork for a
presidential visit later this year.
Rice's trip to
India also presents an opportunity to make a joint U.S.-India
statement on Nepal. Since King Gyanendra abolished the government
and established his monarchy as absolute, the human rights
situation in the country has substantially dropped from its already
low levels. Capitalizing on Nepal's sudden political isolation,
China is supporting the king's dictatorial impulses and appears to
be constructing another outpost of tyranny on its frontier, similar
to Beijing's behavior with North Korea and Burma. A strong
statement by India and the United States should warn the Chinese
about interfering with Nepal's independence and encourage King
Gyanendra to restore democracy this year.
Afghanistan: In Kabul, Rice will focus on continuing
the war on terror, especially al-Qaeda remnants; developing Afghan
forces for security duty in dealing with Taliban irregulars;
integrating Afghan militias in the Afghan armed forces; and
eradicating the burgeoning drug trade, which is funding terrorism
and radicalism.
Japan:
Coming on the heels of a very successful U.S.-Japan Security
Consultative session - or "2+2 Ministerial Meetings" - in
Washington, Rice's visit to Tokyo will be an excellent opportunity
to move beyond the rhetoric of solid cooperation and explore some
concrete actions to implement the common strategy articulated at
the meetings. For example, in light of North Korea's declaration
that it has ended its self-imposed moratorium on missile-testing,
Washington and Tokyo should indicate specific actions they will
take should Pyongyang launch another missile test.
Korea: In
Seoul, the focus of discussions will be on the continuing effort to
coordinate policies toward North Korea and the resolution of the
nuclear issue. While the two governments are closely cooperating
and seem to have reached official consensus on a number of topics,
including the policies on the nuclear issue and strengthening the
alliance, public discourse - particularly in South Korea - does not
reflect this close working relationship. Rice's primary task will
be to allay suspicions in South Korea that U.S. policies are
counter to Korean interests; on the contrary, she should emphasize
that America's priority is the same as South Korea's: to find a
peaceful solution to the nuclear issue. As such, Secretary Rice
should emphasize the public diplomacy aspect of her visit and
encourage the leadership in Seoul to work more closely with
Washington to deliver coordinated messages.
China: Though the last stop, Beijing may be the most
important stop on Rice's swing through Asia. China's military
buildup, its relationship with Iran, and the North Korean nuclear
program will prevail in bilateral discussions. China must
understand that a peaceful, mutually agreeable resolution to
Taiwan's future must be achieved, and that the introduction of a
Taiwan anti-secession law is unhelpful to cross-Strait stability
Rice must press China, the country with the most influence with
North Korea, to pressure Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
China must also use its influence with Iran to encourage Tehran to
step back from the nuclear weapons abyss.
On the heels of
successful swings through Europe and the Middle East, Rice's first
visit to Asia as Secretary of State offers the opportunity to set
the tone and tenor for some of the United States' most important
relationships.
-Peter T.R.
Brookes is Senior
Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director, Dana R. Dillon
is Senior Policy Analyst for
Southeast Asia, and Balbina Y. Hwang
is policy analyst for
Northeast Asia, in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage
Foundation.