The Bureau of Labor
Statistics today released monthly job numbers for March, showing
the economy adding more than 100,000 new payroll jobs and lowering
the unemployment rate to 5.2 percent. Despite higher oil prices,
higher interest rates, and higher trade deficit, unemployment is
lower - dropping by 0.2 percentage points. Nobody should doubt the
health of the American workforce.
While most attention
will be given to the "decline" of payroll job growth, we should
also notice the impressive rise in the alternative Household
survey. Nonfarm payrolls are up "only" 110,000, but the number of
Americans who are employed surged up 357,000. The household survey
may be more volatile, but is not revised every month like payroll
data, and serves as a better indicator over the long run. For
example, the 262,000 payroll jobs added in February were revised
down to 243,000 this time.
Twenty-one
consecutive months of payroll job growth adding up to an additional
3.1 million jobs since the spring of 2003, coinciding with over a
full one-point drop in the unemployment rate from 6.3 in June 2003
to 5.2 today, should give pause to the doomsayers. For context, the
labor force did not grow by much according to the March employment
report, and the labor force participation rate was unchanged at
65.8 percent for the third month in a row. That means the rise in
employment and decline in the unemployment rate are very, very real
phenomenon, not an artifact of people leaving the labor force. The
fact is that more Americans are working today than ever before in
U.S. history.
Public
Policy Implications
These employment
trends imply that fiscal and monetary policy over the last few
years has been effective, at least in the short term. There are
real concerns that monetary policy has been excessively liquid, yet
inflation is the primary indicator to watch for that, and it seems
stable for now. On the other hand, the Republican tax cuts of 2001
and 2003 seem to have been impressively effective at stimulating
investment-driven GDP growth, which has translated into job gains.
While challenges to American growth merit attention, especially the
borrow-and-spend addiction of Congress, the economic trends are
what you might call boringly positive.
For policy-makers,
the strong economy should enable real reform of the long-term
structural challenges facing the U.S., quite unlike the short-term
stimuli popular in recessions. Indeed, there may never be a better
economic environment for substantive entitlement reform. Congress
should seize the opportunity.
Tim Kane, Ph.D., is
the Bradley Research Fellow in Labor Policy in the Center for Data
Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.