Conventional wisdom
about international trade deficits, China, and the dollar is
confused. Headlines bemoan "dollar jitters," pointing to the
troubling 30 percent decline of the greenback against the euro in
recent years. Yet conventional wisdom also seems to believe that
China is manipulating its currency and should allow it to
appreciate and further weaken the dollar. This kind of confusion is
dangerous: It supports the faction of trade isolationists in
America while averting attention from America's real problem of
runaway congressional spending.
The dollar's recent
swings against the euro indicate neither a dangerous erosion of
U.S. power nor an opportunity for industrial rebirth. By the same
token, forcing China off its peg is no panacea. While the dollar is
worth less against the euro than ever before, we should remember
that the euro is an infant currency that has been in
circulation only since January 1, 2002. As for the U.S. current
account deficit of roughly 6 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP), it is worth remembering that many countries with trade
surpluses are less productive and are growing more slowly than the
United States.
The record-high $61
billion monthly trade deficit is a sign of strength, not
weakness. It reflects a balance of heavy foreign investment in the
high-tech, high-productivity American growth engine. As Treasury
Secretary John Snow has pointed out, America is growing much faster
than other advanced nations. Nations with trade surpluses like
Japan and Germany are economically stagnant and actually suffer
much worse budget shortfalls than the U.S. suffers.
None of the suggested
links between the federal budget, trade deficit, and dollar
exchange rate withstands scrutiny. The basic measures of
economic vitality are GDP growth and employment, and America's
continuing strength, according to these measures, is due largely to
its superior institutions and freer markets. But all observers
agree that the U.S. Congress has a very real challenge with fiscal
spending, and global investors are bound to lose confidence in the
mighty American growth engine unless the problem is
fixed.
If Congress is
dominated by weak leaders who cannot say no to spending, cannot
acknowledge the entitlement crises, and cannot stop nudging up
taxes, then investors are right to start questioning America's
commitment to economic freedom. While big government is
rhetorically out of fashion in America, actions speak louder than
words. That concern hurts the dollar.
Tim Kane, Ph.D., is
Bradley Research Fellow in Labor Policy in the Center for Data
Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.