April was another
strong month for jobs. According to Department of Labor numbers out
this morning, the economy added 274,000 payroll jobs in
April-across a myriad of industries-and the unemployment rate held
steady at a low 5.2 percent. The timing of this report, coming the
day after the Treasury made news by announcing that tax receipts
are well ahead of schedule and that the deficit could fall well
below projections for the year, makes a strong point that is too
often forgotten in Washington: the national economy is the engine
that powers all public policy. Policies that boost economic growth
and jobs reverberate across the board and strengthen Congress's
ability to make the best decisions.
A Solid Year
One year ago, the
unemployment rate was at 5.5 percent, and most analysts took that
historically low rate as an encouraging sign. With unemployment
below the average rate during the Clinton Administration-indeed,
even below the average rates for the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s-the
job market seemed to be showing its resurgent strength.
Still, naysayers
caught up in the year's politics sounded the alarms: if payroll
employment didn't show major gains and soon, unemployment would
begin to grow. Time has proven them wrong. Instead of the
unemployment rate and the household survey on which it is based
snapping into place behind lackluster payroll numbers, the payroll
number's growth accelerated to match the low unemployment rate and
the gains in the household survey. Payroll jobs have increased
about 2 million since this time last year. Meanwhile, unemployment
has dipped further, down to the current 5.2 percent, which many
economists consider not too much above the natural rate of
unemployment in a healthy economy. Do recent gains in the household
survey portend another strong streak in payrolls?
The data from this
month bear may provide an answer. The April employment situation
report released this morning by the Department of Labor is a
bombshell: payrolls grew by 274,000 last month and the March figure
was revised up strongly as well. That's a good response to the
household survey that now shows, after an April gain of 589,000, a
total of 141.1 million Americans working-more than ever before.
Over the last two months, total
employment is up nearly one million, and over the year, it is up by
2.5 million.
Dig deeper into
the April report, and the data just get better. This is the kind of
employment news that sparks a turnaround in soft variables like
consumer confidence and is likely to spark a Wall Street rally as
well.
Consider worker
discouragement. The usual pessimistic
counter-argument to strong numbers is that workers are discouraged,
leaving the labor force, and therefore not counted as unemployed.
But how does that square with the official report, which states
clearly, "The number of discouraged workers, at 393,000 in April,
declined over the year." As for the labor force, it "increased by
605,000 in April to 148.8 million; the labor force participation
rate, at 66.0 percent, also was up over the month."
Consider as well April's addition of 47,000
jobs in construction, continuing that sector's rapid growth over
the past two years. Growth in construction reflects solid consumer
confidence and optimism that the economy will continue to perform
in the months and years ahead.
The Policy Connection
It is too easy for
Washington lawmakers to forget that their every move is predicated
on the continued vitality of the American economy. From the war in
Iraq to Social Security reform to homeland security, none of what
Congress does would be possible but for the powerhouse that is the
American economy. But this relationship runs both ways: at the same
time that growth and prosperity fuel government, government has the
power to take the economy down a notch or two or more. Lawmakers
too often overlook this risk, which threatens not only their
ability to pursue pet projects as well as vital national interests,
but also the optimism and opportunities of ordinary Americans.
Still, the
connection that many lawmakers make most quickly is with the money
flowing into the Treasury's coffers. In the most recent quarter,
tax receipts are $54 billion stronger than the Treasury expected.
In response, deficit projections are dropping. The Administration
expected to close the 2005 fiscal year $427 in the red, but Wall
Street analysts are now pegging that figure at closer to $370
billion. Some even expect further drops.
To be sure, that
is still a lot of money and reflects a level of government spending
that is far higher than it ought to be. These numbers also
illustrate, however, the direct effect that the economy has on the
government's ability to pursue its policy priorities. Every extra
point of growth and additional job created by the private sector
gives the entire economy greater strength and flexibility. This is
part of the reason why Congress must keep a pro-growth agenda in
mind as it weights competing policies.
This year, the
President's leadership has brought two major pro-growth initiatives
to the fore. The first is Social Security reform. By allowing
individuals to keep a portion of their payroll taxes for themselves
in personal accounts, the President's reform proposal would given
individuals a greater incentive to work and stoke the labor supply
significantly, according to research by Nobel laureate economist
Edward Prescott. The second initiative is tax reform. Any reform of
today's horribly complex tax code-and especially reforms that lead
to flatter rates, fewer deductions, and less double taxation-would
reduce the compliance costs and deadweight losses that today's tax
system imposes on the economy.
The first Friday
of every month, when the Department of Labor releases its jobs
numbers, is a good day for lawmakers to take stock of their efforts
over the past month and think about what they've done to accelerate
or hold back the economy. April's numbers are good, but they could
still be even better. How much better, to some extent, Congress
gets to decide.
Tim Kane,
Ph.D., is Bradley Research Fellow in Labor Policy
in the Center for Data Analysis, and Andrew Grossman is Senior
Writer, at The Heritage Foundation.