Why is the 2003
tax cut working so much better than the 2001 tax cut? Why is the
economy performing better, for instance, and why are tax revenues
growing faster than projected today compared to what happened after
the 2001 tax legislation? The answer is that not all tax cuts are
created equal. Tax cuts based on the Keynesian notion of putting
money in people's pockets in the form of rebates and credits do not
work-and these are the tax cuts that dominated the tax legislation
approved in May 2001. Supply-side tax cuts, by contrast, do improve
economic performance because they reduce tax rates on work, saving,
and investment. And since lower tax rates on productive behavior
dominated the May 2003 legislation, it is hardly surprising that
the economy has responded positively.
As the following
comparison indicates, the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts yielded
significantly different results:
-
Economic growth
since the 2003 tax cut has averaged nearly 4.4 percent on a yearly
basis, compared to just 1.9 percent in the period following the
2001 tax cut.
-
Net job creation
since the 2003 tax cut has averaged more than 150,000 per month,
compared to declining job numbers in the period after the 2001 tax
cut.
-
Tax revenues
have grown by an average of more than 6 percent annually since the
2003 tax cut, compared to falling tax collections after the 2001
tax cut.
To be sure, tax
policy is only one of many government policies that impact economic
growth. Moreover, exogenous factors such as the terrorist attack in
2001 influence economic performance. So it would be wrong to
attribute all of the good news since May 2003 to the supply-side
tax cut, just as it would be incorrect to blame the Keynesian tax
cut for all the job losses and economic weakness between May 2001
and May 2003. Furthermore, not every provision of the 2001 tax cut
was economically misguided and not every component of the 2003 tax
cut was based on sound economic policy.
To reiterate, it
is not enough merely to cut taxes. Tax reductions only benefit the
economy if the "price" of engaging in productive behavior is
reduced. Keynesians argue that rebates and credits boost growth by
injecting purchasing power in the economy, but this simplistic
analysis fails to realize that government withdraws an equal amount
of purchasing power from the economy when it borrows money to
finance the rebates and credits.
An examination of
the major provisions of the two tax bills underscores the
difference between Keynesian tax cuts and supply-side tax cuts. The
2001 tax cut, for example, included many provisions that had no
positive impact on economic performance because of poor design.
Other tax provisions in 2001 were based on supply-side principles,
but implementation was postponed-which meant a concomitant delay in
the pro-growth impact. A review of the major provisions in the 2001
bill illustrates the problem:
- Tax rebate
- No pro-growth impact. Depending on household status,
taxpayers received $300 to $600 checks. These checks did nothing to
improve economic performance because the rebate was not tied to
economic activity.
- Child tax
credits - No pro-growth impact. Households received an
additional tax credit of $100 per eligible child. The provision did
nothing to improve economic performance because the credits were
not tied to economic activity.
- Ten percent
tax bracket - Negligible pro-growth impact. The
legislation created a 10 percent tax rate for income below $6,000
for individuals and $12,000 for married couples. This lower rate
had a very modest pro-growth impact by reducing the marginal tax
rate on people who earn very modest incomes.
- Income tax
rate reductions - Minor pro-growth impact. Income tax
rates were lowered one percentage point for years 2001 to 2003, but
the bulk of the income tax reductions were postponed until 2004 and
2006. This had the unfortunate effect of postponing the lion's
share of the pro-growth impact.
- Death tax
repeal - Minor pro-growth impact. Immediate death tax
repeal would have a very large pro-growth effect, but this is not
what was approved in 2001. Instead, the legislation included a
provision to gradually phase out the death tax. The death tax rate
did drop immediately from 55 percent to 50 percent, but the rate
will remain at least 45 percent until 2010, when it finally drops
to zero (albeit for only one year). This delay in repeal means that
the bulk of the economic benefit will not occur until 2010-and even
that presupposes that the repeal is made permanent.
The 2003 tax cut
was not perfect, but most of the major components were based on
supply-side principles. And because the legislation focused on good
tax policy, it generated much better economic results. A review of
the major provisions in the 2003 bill illustrates the link between
good policy and good results:
-
Accelerated child tax credits - No pro-growth
impact. The child tax credit was increased to $1,000 per
eligible child. This provision did nothing to improve economic
performance since the credits were not tied to economic
activity.
- Reduced tax on
new business investment - Significant pro-growth impact.
The legislation immediately reduced the "depreciation" tax on new
business investment and also expanded the amount of investment that
small businesses could "expense" in the year when the cost was
incurred, meaning no tax on new investment.
- Accelerated
income tax rate reductions - Significant pro-growth
impact. The 2001 legislation included income tax rate
reductions, but most of those reductions were postponed until 2004
and 2006. The 2003 tax cut made those lower tax rates effective
immediately.
- Reduction in
double-taxation of dividends and capital gains - Significant
pro-growth impact. The legislation included provisions that
reduced the double-tax on both dividends and capital gains to 15
percent. These reductions took place immediately, thus ensuring no
incentive to postpone pro-growth activity.
- Payment to the
states - Moderate anti-growth impact. The 2003 tax
legislation included a $20 billion spending increase to subsidize
state government spending. This provision resulted in a transfer of
resources from the productive sector of the economy to the
government.
Some politicians
argue that taxes should be higher, but if they really want more
money in Washington, they should argue for more tax cuts like the
ones adopted in 2003. Tax revenues have risen much faster than
inflation since the 2003 tax cut was enacted. The results for 2005
have been especially impressive. Revenues to date for the current
fiscal year are up more than 13 percent compared to the previous
period.
This does not mean
that tax cuts "pay for themselves," but it does mean that the right
kind of tax policy-lower tax rates on work, saving, and
investment-will lead to faster economic growth. And faster economic
growth means more income for the government to tax. In other words,
the best way to generate tax revenue is to expand the "tax
base."
But the purpose of
good tax policy is not to give politicians more money to waste.
Pro-growth tax cuts should be implemented to boost economic
performance and expand individual opportunity. Indeed, to the
extent that pro-growth tax cuts generate more income and a larger
tax base, any additional revenue should be used to finance further
reforms to bring America closer to a simple and fair flat tax.
Daniel J. Mitchell,
Ph.D., is McKenna Senior Research Fellow in the Thomas A.
Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.