Afghanistan's September 18 parliamentary
elections were an important milestone for building stability and
democracy in a country that is critical to the war against al-Qaeda
and Islamic radicalism. The surviving leaders of the ousted Taliban
regime opposed the elections and killed six of the almost 6,000
candidates running for seats in the lower house of parliament and
34 provincial councils. The votes are still being counted, but the
fact that (by regional standards) the elections proceeded with
relatively little political violence is itself an important
achievement.
Nevertheless, the United States and its
allies cannot afford complacency in the uphill struggle to resolve
Afghanistan's enormous problems. To stabilize Afghanistan and
preclude a return to power by the Taliban and its terrorist allies,
the U.S.-led coalition must help the nascent Afghan government to
provide its long-suffering people with greater security, economic
development, and enforcement of the rule of law.
A Difficult
Agenda. The parliamentary elections are expected to
strengthen the popular legitimacy of President Hamid Karzai's
government, but the real test will come after the elections.
Popular support for the government, which has little ability to
enforce its authority outside Kabul and other major cities, will
expand to the degree that it helps to develop the economy, reduces
widespread unemployment, rebuilds shattered infrastructure,
resettles the more than 1 million refugees, and solves the housing
shortage and lack of health care.
Fulfilling this long and difficult agenda
will be impossible unless the Karzai government can first provide
security and enforce the rule of law. The Taliban rose to power in
southern Afghanistan in part because war-weary Afghans welcomed an
end to lawless anarchy. Local criminal gangs, drug traffickers, and
regional warlords remain a threat to the rule of law.
The
Taliban and its allies, including Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezbi
Islami (Party of Islam) and the al-Qaeda movement, have steadily
escalated their attacks. More than 1,200 Afghans, including roughly
600 insurgents, have been killed this year--the worst year of
violence since the Taliban was overthrown in 2001. It is largely a
cross-border insurgency. Operating from bases in Pakistan, the
Taliban has dispatched small groups of insurgents to attack
government forces, assassinate local officials, and intimidate
civilians. Pakistan has about 80,000 troops deployed along the
border but has often turned a blind eye to Taliban activity among
its restive Pushtun minority, which remains more anti-Western and
pro-Taliban than the Pushtuns who have historically dominated
Afghanistan.
Despite the increasing violence, the
Pentagon reportedly plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops
(currently about 19,000) by up to 20 percent next year if the
post-election situation improves. This is a dangerous gamble.
Afghan guerrillas suspend most activities during Afghanistan's
grueling winters and return home or to camps in Pakistan to rest
and regroup. In the spring, they remobilize and resume their
attacks. While the U.S. military presence could be safely reduced
during the winter months, prudence dictates that it should be
increased again in the spring when the fighting season resumes.
Assisting
Afghanistan. The U.S. should help the Afghan government
to:
- Improve the
security situation. In addition to maintaining its
military presence, the United States should expand the mandate and,
if possible, the size of the 11,000 NATO-led International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) peacekeepers. ISAF troops, drawn from 35
countries, are deployed in Kabul and northern and western
Afghanistan. They should extend their protection to cover strategic
roads and towns farther south, where Taliban insurgents are more
active. Washington should also press the Pakistani government to
disrupt cross-border Taliban operations and arrest Taliban leaders
who have found sanctuary in Pakistan.
- Rebuild
shattered infrastructure and develop a free economy.
Afghanistan needs foreign assistance to help rebuild, but long-term
economic development depends on sound economic policies, good
governance, and improved rule of law. The Afghan government should
help Afghans to help themselves by encouraging local entrepreneurs,
welcoming private-sector and foreign investment, and reducing
interference from regional warlords and Kabul-based bureaucrats.
Many Afghans are increasingly disenchanted with foreign contractors
and officials from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) who are
paid exorbitant salaries by Afghan standards. The United States
should reform its aid program to work through the Afghan government
and local NGOs wherever possible and reduce dependence on foreign
contractors. It should place a higher priority on building the
Afghan government's capacity to help its own people by improving
public administration and training government officials and Afghan
NGOs to train other Afghans. Greater effort should be made to
employ jobless Afghans on labor-intensive projects such as
rebuilding crumbling roads and agricultural irrigation
systems.
- Establish the
rule of law. The U.S. and its allies urgently need to
assist the Afghan government in building an effective and
independent judicial system, supported by better trained and better
equipped police, to enforce the rule of law and help build a
cooperative civil society. The Afghans also need extensive help in
eradicating the booming opium trade without undercutting support
for the government. This means helping poor farmers find
alternative means of supporting their families while cracking down
on the drug lords who buy their poppy crops, process them into
opium and heroin, and smuggle the illegal drugs to markets outside
Afghanistan. Washington must also help Kabul root out drug-related
government corruption. The recent resignation of Interior Minister
Ali Jalali, reportedly due to his dissatisfaction over the
involvement of some government officials in the drug trade, is a
warning sign that narco-corruption is a growing threat.
Conclusion. President Hamid Karzai has
played a courageous and indispensable role in leading Afghanistan
to embrace democracy and reject Islamic radicalism, but he needs
greater international support to rebuild his country, prevent the
Taliban from making a comeback, fight drug mafias, and tame unruly
warlords. The United States must vigilantly remain engaged to
prevent Afghanistan from sliding backward and becoming a sanctuary
for Islamic radicals, terrorists, and drug smugglers.
James Phillips is
Research Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.