Today the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November Employment
Situation report, highlighting a gain of 215,000 new jobs in the
payroll survey and a low unemployment rate of 5.0 percent. This
good news follows on the heels of Wednesday's report of
unexpectedly strong
economic growth in the third quarter. The U.S. economy has been
expanding at a brisk pace since the enactment of the President's
2003 tax cuts, which cut tax rates on capital, thereby stimulating
business investment and job creation. Through November, 1.7 million
payroll jobs have been created in 2005, and 4.5 million jobs have
been created since the 2003 tax cuts went into effect. With the
dividend and capital gains tax rate provisions of that package set
to expire at the end of this month, Congress must act to ensure
that the economy continues to expand and create jobs.
This month's
numbers also mark a milestone: this is first jobs report since
Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast to return to using the
standard employment coverage for the affected areas.
Highlights of the November Jobs
Report
The monthly survey
of business establishments showed that firms added 215,000 jobs in
November. BLS also revised the job growth in October and September
upward by 13,000 and 25,000 jobs, respectively. With this revision
to the September numbers, the economy has added jobs in every month
since the 2003 tax cut.
The strongest
growth came in the service sector, with 165,000 new jobs in
November. Construction, which added 37,000 jobs, remained strong,
and manufacturing showed an increase of 11,000 jobs. The
construction industry has been steadily adding jobs since the 2003
tax cuts. Both construction and manufacturing continue to benefit
from the lower capital costs and higher investment that stemmed in
part from the lower taxes on dividends and capital gains, key
features of the 2003 tax cuts.
The unemployment
rate for November was 5.0 percent, unchanged from October and down
from 5.2 at the start of the year. For workers who have graduated
from high school, the unemployment rate is below 5.0 percent.
Workers with a bachelor's or higher degree had an unemployment rate
of 2.3 percent. The labor force grew by 97,000 workers in
November.
Katrina's Lingering Effects
Previous BLS
surveys found that approximately 900,000 people were made evacuees
by Hurricane Katrina. By November, approximately half had returned
to their homes. Over 55 percent of evacuees had returned to the
labor force. The unemployment rate for all evacuees, at 20.5
percent, was sharply higher than the national average. For evacuees
who were able to return home, the unemployment rate was over twice
the national average at 12.5 percent. For those unable to return
home, unemployment was at 27.8 percent. As evacuees continue to
return to their homes or become acclimated elsewhere, their
unemployment numbers will continue to fall. Key to this process is
economic revitalization and job growth along the Gulf Coast. That
process, like so much in the economy, is throttled by the cost of
capital. Again, the 2003 tax cuts make a difference.
Dangers Ahead
The U.S. economy
has taken two tough punches in the last eighteen months. High
energy prices and catastrophic hurricanes were hurdles to economic
growth. However, the economy has surpassed these problems and
continued to expand and add jobs. This demonstrates strong
fundamentals and a good deal of resiliency.
Unfortunately,
some overlook this feat and spend their time looking under every
rock for a small bit of bad news. Too many media reports concern
themselves with potential problems that disappear in the next
economic quarter or even in the next month. For example, remember
the "jobless recovery"? The key fact to remember is this: the
economy has added over 150,000 jobs every month in 2005, despite
several major hurricanes and high energy prices. No matter how you
look at it, that's impressive.
The Real Danger
Congress may pose
a greater threat to future economic growth than oil rich sheikdoms
and Nature's fury. Key components of the 2003 tax
cuts-specifically, the reductions in capital gains and dividends
tax rates-are set to expire at the end of 2008. Not only do these
provisions lower capital acquisition costs for expanding firms, but
they have also become a closely-watched indicator of what Congress
will do to extend and make permanent other important elements of
the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. If Congress fails to extend the
low taxes on dividends and capital gains, that failure will be
interpreted by Chief Financial Officers as a sign that business
taxes will be rising very soon. That will lead to lower
investment and slower job creation. Businesses are already
planning expansions for 2009, and a failure to extend these tax
cuts will have a lasting negative impact on the economy.
The economy is in
strong shape, and today's job numbers reflect that. Pro-growth
policies, such as extending the 2003 tax cuts, will show that
Congress is serious about economic growth and expanding
employment.
Rea
S. Hederman, Jr., is Senior Policy Analyst in, and William
W. Beach is Director of, the Center for Data Analysis at The
Heritage Foundation.