Conservative
Stephen Harper's January 23 election victory to become the next
prime minister of Canada doesn't mean that his country's cool
alliance with the United States will automatically warm up-at
least, not without some cooperation from Washington.
Canadians may have
voted Conservative to cashier Liberals for a government kickback
scandal from a previous administration. To a lesser degree, they
may be disenchanted with entitlement programs like socialized
medicine that are so bureaucratic that patients flock to U.S.
clinics to pay out of pocket for timely service. And there is
growing regionalism-Harper represents oil-rich western provinces
that favor increased local autonomy.
Still,
Conservatives are isolated and vulnerable in a society that tilts
toward the welfare state. Out of the four other major parties, the
Tories can count on support from none. Yet the Liberals can depend
on the kindred New Democratic Party, the Bloc Quebécois, and
the Greens for occasional support on social and environmental
policy.
While the
Conservatives gained 25 seats in the House of Commons, they needed
32 more to obtain a majority. Moreover, the Liberals have been
consistent in getting and keeping power, while minority governments
have had a hard time lasting beyond two years. That's thin ice to
support big policy changes.
Friendship
Matters
Despite
constraints, the United States can do business with Harper. He is a
thoughtful conservative. Though media savvy, he is less prone to
posturing than Paul Martin, who shrunk from leadership on global
warming and security and then took up Washington-bashing to look
tough in front of TV cameras.
Unfairly painted
by the media as a knee-jerk conservative on social issues, Harper
has transcended that niche in the gay marriage and abortion debates
and will exhibit pragmatic expertise in stewardship of Canada's
larger interests. He knows Canada's future will hinge on
competitiveness with emerging economic giants like China and India,
its contributions to shaping reasoned treaty obligations, and
regional security.
Like the United
States, Canada is both an industrial and agricultural power. And
unfortunately, it maintains similar trade barriers on some
agricultural products. Both President Bush and Prime Minister
Harper could work together to reduce these remaining bilateral
constraints and then press other national leaders through the World
Trade Organization to follow suit.
As well, Canada's
help in promoting a more competitive business environment in Mexico
will bring commerce and jobs to our southern partner, boost
trilateral trade against encroachment by Asian giants, and reverse
enormous northward migrant flows. Canada is a member of the North
American Free Trade Agreement with the United States and Mexico. In
blunt terms, Mexico is the weak link.
Canada's
contribution to a more equitable and reasonable approach to global
environmental issues would be most welcome. Canadians may be in
favor of broad international protections, but Mr. Harper could
better inform that concern by explaining why the badly crafted
Kyoto accord on global warming is worse that no agreement at
all.
Paul Martin's
reduced defense budgets and retreat on supporting U.S. strategic
missile defense (which would cost Canada nothing) have put into
question Canada's commitment to the North American Aerospace
Defense Command (NORAD) accord-up for renewal in May 2006 and now
more important for both countries than ever. Harper could eliminate
this uncertainty, to everyone's benefit.
In facing
transnational crime, terrorism, and non-military threats such as
natural disasters, the NAFTA partners are equally challenged. But
Mexico-looking inward for most of its history-has more work to do
than the U.S. or Canada. Like the United States, Canada can help
Mexico with training, exchanges, and invitations to
exercises-showing initiative toward the shared goal of regional
security.
The Bush
Administration can improve relations by not treating Prime Minister
Harper as if he were in Uncle Sam's hip pocket. Instead of a gushy
embrace, a warm handshake will do.
Consulting Mr.
Harper's government and keeping him informed of pending U.S. policy
decisions is crucial. After all, good neighbors talk regularly.
Infrequent communication soured relations between Bush and Mexican
President Vicente Fox-two conservative cowboys who never figured
out how to speak frankly about how each could help solve the
other's problems. Bush kept Fox at arm's length and thus open to
poor advice on migration that eventually sidetracked U.S.-Mexico
relations.
The Bottom Line
Canada shares a
4,000-mile border with the United States and is one of America's
top three foreign energy suppliers. It is the 8th largest economy
in the world and is America's largest commercial partner in an
increasingly competitive, globalized marketplace.
There is no option
other than to have close ties with this important neighbor. Stephen
Harper's election will draw us closer, but Washington can ensure a
lasting friendship with progress on trade, multilateral relations,
and security and through respect and frequent consultation on
matters involving our two nations.
Stephen
Johnson is Senior Policy Analyst in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom
Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage
Foundation.