The year 2005 will
be remembered as a rough one for Republicans, and understandably
so. Conservatives were first frustrated, and now appalled, by the
so-called Republican revolutionaries who promised to downsize the
government and streamline Congress but have instead produced more
pork, more partisanship, bigger deficits, and now we learn, the
same special-interest lobbying scandals of yore. When conservative
activists fought for conservative causes like Social Security
reform and estate tax repeal, politicians failed to produce
permanent legislation in Congress. President George W. Bush, who
has championed these causes, suffered setback after setback and
bled political capital all year long. So there is plenty for
conservatives to be depressed about.
But for other
reasons, 2005 was a great year, and here's why.
First, economic
perceptions will only improve. Low approval ratings for
President Bush and economic pessimism have nowhere to go but up,
especially considering that the negatives were shaped by rare
events like hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Indeed, initial reports of
a net loss of 35,000 jobs during the hurricane-heavy month of
September were revised not once, but twice, and now the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that there was a 17,000 net gain of
payroll jobs during the month. Perceptions will inevitably catch up
with reality, but will the administration use its momentum to
pursue pet projects or to restore basic spending discipline?
Second, the
economy was strong. Critics have no credibility if they carp
that the economy was weak in 2005. Americans are waking up to the
fact that despite years of hearing that the sky is falling, the
U.S. economy is actually stronger than ever. No, the dollar has not
collapsed. No, outsourcing has not slowed the American jobs
machine. No, higher interest rates and a surge in the price of oil
did not burst the housing bubble or diminish aggregate demand.
Third, job
creation was robust. Productivity and GDP growth are robust for
the year, but the most important measure for the voting public is
jobs. Yesterday the Labor Department reported the lowest number of
weekly initial jobless claims in five years. This statistic is a
key leading indicator for the future. BLS published the final
monthly jobs report for 2005 today, with the following
highlights:
- Unemployment
dropped to a rate of 4.9 percent in December 2005, down 0.1
percentage points from last month and down from an average rate of
5.5 percent in 2004.
- During 2005, 2.0
million new payroll jobs were created, and the total number of
workers rose by 2.6 million. In December, the preliminary data
indicate an additional 108,000 payroll jobs, just enough to keep up
with population growth. The big surprise is that November job gains
were revised upwards to 305,000.
- Job gains were
broad-based across all sectors. Some 90 percent of job gains in
2005 were in the service sector, which is where more than 80
percent of Americans work. The economy created half a million new
jobs in professional services, 360,000 in private health and
education, 240,000 in leisure and hospitality, 26,000 in trade and
transportation, 19,000 in finance, and even 10,000 teaching jobs at
the local level.
Jobs Boom May Save
Tax Reform
In the battle of
ideas, the strong economy of recent years is a vindication of the
economic policies of lower taxes and lighter regulation, both of
which have been embraced by President Bush. His signature economic
issue has been tax cuts, which stimulate incentives to work, save,
and invest. And the net result economically is that employment is
up significantly from when he took office.
For those who see
the budget deficit as an economic threat, there are only two
solutions: higher taxes or lower federal spending. The jobs boom of
2005 effectively takes tax hikes off the table. Indeed, Congress
should take the initiative to make the temporary tax reforms of
2003 permanent. That means cutting spending is the only game in
town and will be the measure of real leadership in 2006.
Tim Kane,
Ph.D., is the Bradley Research Fellow in Labor Policy in the
Center for Data Analysis at The Heritage Foundation.