In recent weeks,
Russia has distanced itself from positions on the Middle East that
it once held in common with the U.S. and the European Union. In
February, Russia negotiated with Iran to establish a joint
uranium-enrichment venture to supply nuclear reactor fuel to the
Islamic Republic. As well, it is selling anti-aircraft missiles to
Syria. And on March 3, a high ranking delegation of the Hamas
terrorist organization visited Moscow at Russian President Vladimir
Putin's invitation.
As Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Washington to discuss the Middle East
on March 6-7, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice should inform her
Russian counterpart that Moscow is playing a dangerous game in the
Middle East. It is jeopardizing Russia's G-8 presidency, its
position in the Middle East Quartet, and its international
standing. Russia cannot go on playing this two-faced game with the
West.
Russia may have
several aims in pursuing this new Middle East policy. Among them,
keeping the price of oil high will certainly accrue to Russia's
short-term advantage. Russia may sense an opportunity to increase
its standing in its own backyard, at the expense of the power of
its putative Western allies. Most foolhardy of all, Russia may be
trying to placate Islamist extremists for the sake of its own
security-a policy that is doomed to fail.
Back to the Soviet
Past?
As it did during
theSoviet era, Russia now seeks to maximize its policy options in
the Middle East while restraining the U.S.'s ability to maneuver.
In the 1980s, for example, Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union became
a major arms supplier to the Ayatollah Khomeini's Iran, while also
selling arms to Saddam Hussein's Iraq, with which Iran was engaged
in a long war for most of the decade.
The USSR, and
later Russia, joined Iran in demanding that the U.S. withdraw its
military forces from the Persian Gulf, where they ensure the
security of the world's prime oil supply and shipping lanes. A
nuclear-armed Iran, closely allied with and armed by Russia and
China, could challenge the U.S., its interests, and its allies in
the region.
Today, Russia is
the lead supplier of Iran's civilian nuclear efforts and ignores
that country's military nuclear program. In December 2005, Russia
announced that it would sell Iran $700 million worth of TOR-M1
(SA-15) short-range surface-to-air missiles and is now reportedly
negotiating the sale of long-range anti-aircraft SA-10 missiles
(known by their Russian designation, S-300). Buttressed by radars
and computers, these missile systems could form a nationwide
air-defense that would make future air strikes to disarm Iran's
nuclear weapons program all but impossible.
Russia has also
sold Iran a $1.2-billion Bushehr nuclear reactor, to be completed
in the fall of 2006, and plans to supply at least two more and
possibly as many as five more reactors, which will cost $8 to $10
billion altogether. These reactors could be used to produce fissile
material for a clandestine nuclear weapons program. In addition,
Russia has trained hundreds of Iranian nuclear physicists and
engineers; provided Teheran with ballistic missile technology; and
launched an Iranian spy satellite.
Despite all of
this, Moscow couldn't favor the idea of an Iran armed with nuclear
missiles, because it would likely seek influence in Russia's own
backyard-the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the oil-rich Caspian
basin. As further evidence, Russia is placating Islamist extremists
in other parts of the Middle East. Something else is at play.
Breaking Ranks with
the West
Russia has broken
with the joint position of the Quartet-which includes the U.S.,
U.N, EU, and Russia-that no negotiations with Hamas or cash
assistance to a Hamas-lead Palestinian Authority will be possible
until it renounces terrorism, disarms terrorist organizations,
respects past agreements including the Road Map, and recognizes
Israel.
During his
February 2006 visit to Spain, President Putin announced that he
would invite the leaders of Hamas to Moscow. He declared that
Russia never considered Hamas a terrorist organization and that
Hamas' election was a great failure of President Bush's foreign
policy. Coddling Hamas, without securing a complete renunciation of
terror and recognition of Israel, is simply appeasing a terrorist
organization responsible for the deaths of hundreds of innocent
civilians. Hamas controls veritable "brainwashing factories," where
thousands of children as young as four are conditioned to become
suicide bombers. Still, Russian Chief of General Staff Yuri
Baluyevsky has already suggested that Moscow will sell weapons to
the Palestinian Authority lead by Hamas.
These games that
Russia is playing with radical Islamists are reminiscent of those
Joseph Stalin played with Hitler until the Nazis invaded USSR in
1941. Russia has already suffered atrocities at the hands of
Islamist militants, such as at the Beslan school and Dubrovka
theater, where hundreds of hostages, including children, died. This
legitimization of Hamas is self-defeating. Appeasement will invite
further Islamist aggression against Russia, especially as it is
already dealing with expanding Islamist insurgencies in Chechnya
and elsewhere in North Caucasus and faces a growing internal Muslim
population.
Putin also broke
with the West when he suggested that the media practice
self-censorship in view of the row over the publication of cartoons
depicting the Prophet Mohammad. Russian authorities have already
closed down two newspapers for the offense of publishing similar
cartoons.
Pulling Chestnuts
from Middle Eastern Fires
Russia, an
observer member of the Organization of Islamic Conferences, is
pursuing a course that dilutes the solidarity and coordination of
the G-8 and could lead to the destabilization of the Middle East.
Among its troubling actions:
- Selling nuclear
reactors and weapons to Iran, and anti-aircraft missiles to Syria
and possibly to the Hamas-dominated PA;
- Empowering Iran
to become a regional hegemon and deny U.S. access to the Gulf;
- Positioning
itself to be a co-equal party alongside the U.S., while placating
radical Islamist forces; and
- Stirring
regional instability, which leads to higher oil prices, from which
Russia benefits as a high-production oil exporter state.
A Message to
Moscow
Russia should no
longer be able to get away with aiding and abetting Iran and Hamas
while paying lip service to solidarity with the West. During Mr.
Lavrov's visit to Washington, the Administration must make clear
that Russia's current policies will not improve its fortunes.
Secretary Rice should tell Mr. Lavrov that Moscow is jeopardizing
its role as a member of the Quartet and its presidency of the G-8
when it pursues a quasi-Soviet Middle Eastern foreign policy.
Ariel
Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.