In March 9 testimony
before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Lieutenant General
Henry A. Obering, the Director of the Missile Defense Agency,
stated that his agency made history in 2004 by establishing a
"limited defensive capability" for protecting the United States
against ballistic missile attack. Congress, as it undertakes the
task of drafting the fiscal year (FY) 2007 Defense Authorization
bill, must recognize that this defense is very thin and needs to be
strengthened. It can do so by making several significant changes in
the missile defense budget, such as adding funds to accelerate the
concurrent testing and operation program for the long-range missile
defense interceptors in Alaska and California and to improve and
expand the sea-based interceptors on the Navy's AEGIS ships.
Looking to the future, Congress should direct the Agency to start
serious work on placing missile defense interceptors in space.
A
Limited Defense, an Expanding Threat
The threat to the U.S.
from rogue states seeking nuclear weapons and improved ballistic
missile capabilities is expanding. Iran has announced that it has
begun enriching uranium, possibly for the purpose of building a
nuclear weapon. This action is in open defiance of international
obligations that require Iran to freeze its enrichment program.
Meanwhile, North Korea continues to stonewall the six-nation talks
designed to achieve its nuclear disarmament. Both Iran and North
Korea continue to pursue ballistic missile delivery systems for
such weapons. For example, North Korea is now estimated to possess
more than 600 short-range SCUD-class missiles and as many as 200
medium-range No Dong missiles. It is also continuing development of
longer-range missiles that could target U.S. territory in the
future. These actions, among others, mean that the U.S. cannot
afford to wait to defend itself.
In this context, Congress
must understand that the "limited defensive capability" Obering
referred to in his testimony is extremely limited indeed. According
to Obering, the U.S. now has just nine Ground-based Midcourse
Defense (GMD) interceptors fielded in Alaska and two in California
for possible use in defending U.S. territory against long-range
missiles launched from the Korean Peninsula. It is at best
uncertain whether these interceptors could counter an Iranian
long-range missile aimed at the East Coast. Perhaps most
importantly, additional testing of the GMD system is necessary to
give military commanders confidence in its operational
capabilities. Finally, Obering also admitted that the Navy has
fewer than 10 Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor missiles aboard
AEGIS class ships. By any reasonable measure, this is not a robust
defense.
How to
Strengthen Missile Defense Now
History dictated that the
U.S. would have to start with a limited defense for countering the
ballistic missile threat. This is because for 30 years (1972-2002)
the U.S. observed the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with
the former Soviet Union that barred the development, testing, and
deployment of effective defenses against ballistic missile attack.
The negative impact of this policy of purposeful vulnerability
cannot be overstated. Even following U.S. withdrawal from the ABM
Treaty, the Department of Defense proceeded along the limited paths
of development and testing the ABM Treaty allowed.
Clearly, Congress cannot
reverse the impact of the ABM Treaty in a single Defense
Authorization bill. Nevertheless, it can take some immediate steps
to ensure that the existing limited defense is expanded as rapidly
as possible:
- Increase funding for
the GMD system by $200 million in FY 2007 to accelerate its
concurrent testing and operational capability. The acquisition of
the GMD system depends on the spiral development approach that the
Department of Defense has adopted. This approach recognizes that a
missile defense system, generally, cannot be tested until it is
built. It also recognizes that there is an inherent operational
capability in the developmental system. Adding funds to the GMD
account would pay for mores flight testing and more test missiles,
which would accelerate those areas of GMD testing and give the
operators of the system the confidence they need to put the system
on constant alert without halting testing and provide the best
defense possible as quickly as possible.
- Increase funding for
the SM-3 missile and AEGIS system by $100 million in FY 2007 to
support the deployment of at least 100 interceptors by FY 2011 and
improve the capability of the battle management component of the
overall weapon system. Testing and developing of the SM-3 missile
and AEGIS weapons system for missile defense have gone well.
Additional money in this account would build on this strong
performance.
- Cut funding for the
Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) program in half in FY 2007.
The KEI program is designed to provide a ground-based approach for
performing missile defense interceptions in the boost and ascent
phases of a target missile's flight. While a boost-phase intercept
capability is essential to the comprehensive, layered missile
defense architecture the Bush Administration is seeking, it is far
from clear that the ground-based option is the best approach-in
fact, the Missile Defense Agency has already chosen the Airborne
Laser as the lead boost-phase system. Thus, the KEI should be a
relatively low priority among the competing missile defense
programs. The Bush Administration is requesting $406 million for
the KEI program in FY 2007; Congress should reduce this to about
$200. As for future funding, Congress should make clear in report
language that it intends to shift KEI funds toward the more
promising multiple kill vehicle (MKV), which will allow the
placement of more than one kill vehicle on each GMD
interceptor.
- Reduce funding for
ballistic missile defense products and core functions by $100
million in FY 2007. These accounts support a wide variety of
developmental activities. The President has asked for about $980
million in funding for them. With the pressing need to build
confidence in the operational capabilities of the developmental
missile defense system, Congress should redirect roughly 10 percent
of these two accounts to that higher priority.
Future
Guidance
Congress should provide
guidance to the Missile Defense Agency on the missile defense
budget for the years after FY 2007 to push it to break free of the
enduring effects of the ABM Treaty. Specifically, Congress should
point toward a reallocation of resources within the roughly
$9-billion-per-year missile defense budget to exploit the
technological options that the ABM Treaty barred the U.S. from
pursuing. Two priorities deserve special mention:
- Increased velocity in
the SM-3 missile: Congress should include language in the
report accompanying the Defense Authorization bill to direct that
the SM-3 program use the Advanced Technology Kill Vehicle (ATKV)
system developed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This technology
will allow the follow-on SM-3 Block 2 missile to achieve velocities
of between 6 and 7.5 kilometers per second. By comparison, the
current SM-3 missile has a velocity of 3 kilometers per second.
Further, the use of the ATKV alternative will allow this increase
in velocity within the 53 centimeter capacity of the Navy's
existing Vertical Launch System (VLS), making the SM-3 Block 2
missile an attractive option for allies interested in participating
in missile defense, such as Japan. Finally, Congress should direct
the Missile Defense Agency to provide future funding for Standard
Missile 2 (SM-2) Block 4 air defense interceptors that would defend
U.S. coasts against short-range missiles launched from ships.
- Rapid development and
deployment of a space-based interceptor: This interceptor
should be based on the Brilliant Pebbles technology developed in
the late 1980s and early 1990s. Space is where the critical boost
phase interceptors should be placed to achieve maximum
effectiveness. This option will provide global coverage and remain
on-station permanently, giving military and civilian leaders the
maximum flexibility to respond to missile threats against the U.S.
and its friends and allies. The effort made to develop Brilliant
Pebbles under the Strategic Defense Initiative proved that the
technology for space-based missile defense is obtainable. Congress
should remember that the Brilliant Pebbles program was cancelled by
the Clinton Administration in 1993 because of its policy to
preserve the ABM Treaty and not for technical reasons. The Clinton
policy failed, and ABM Treaty restrictions no longer pertain.
Conclusion
As a result of the ABM
Treaty, U.S. missile defense capabilities lagged missile
capabilities of potentially hostile states when President Bush took
office in 2001. While the accelerated missile defense program has
made up some ground in the intervening years, it still lags behind
these foreign missile capabilities. The Bush Administration must
finally break the missile defense program free from the enduring
effects of the ABM Treaty. This means giving the missile defense
interceptors already in the field and those soon to be fielded as
much operational capability as possible. It also means moving
missile defenses where they will be most effective, space. By
adjusting missile defense funding for FY 2007 and making clear its
intentions for future years, Congress can prod the Administration
in this direction.
Baker
Spring is F.M. Kirby Research Fellow in National Security
Policy in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at The Heritage Foundation.