The federal government spent $2.5
trillion in 2005: about 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)
and 33 percent more than it spent in 2001. However, the bigger
concern is that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending
will explode when the baby boomers retire, doubling the total
federal budget to nearly 50 percent of GDP by 2050.
Congress has no plan to pay for these
promises, and the budget rules actually hide the total cost from
Congress and the voters. In 2005, unfunded Social Security and
Medicare obligations totaled $36 trillion. When public debt and
other traditional federal liabilities are included, the total U.S.
federal debt is over $46 trillion--the equivalent of a $375,000
home mortgage for every full-time worker in America, but without
the house. According to the U.S. Comptroller General, this figure
was only $165,000 in 2000. Yet Congress, rather than confront this
growth, has chosen to compound it with the Medicare drug
benefit.
Hiding the
Problem. The federal budget works on a pay-as-you-go
system based on when money is paid out and tax revenues received.
The cost of legislation is measured using arbitrary five-year and
10-year budget windows, with no analysis of the size or change in
long-term obligations. Ironically, Congress requires every person
taking out a mortgage to sign a disclosure indicating that he or
she understands the total cost of the loan, including interest. Yet
the annual budget deliberations do not include a similar
requirement, even though every taxpayer is affected. Congress and
the President therefore have every incentive to expand entitlements
because the true costs are paid well beyond their near-term time
horizon. Conversely, lawmakers have no incentive to fix
entitlements because the budget process makes solutions appear
costly in the short term and ignores long-term savings.
For example, when Congress was
considering the Medicare drug benefit, its projected cost of $400
billion over 10 years seemed affordable, but many Members were
unaware of the true $8 trillion "present value" cost (the amount
that must be invested today to meet all future promises) for this
long-term commitment. By contrast, during the Social Security
reform debate, up-front "transition costs" made reform appear
unaffordable because long-term savings were never considered.
How Business
Treats Liabilities. Unlike the federal government, the
private sector is required by law to disclose future obligations,
such as pension and retiree health care plans, and to make annual
payments to satisfy them. The private sector must comply with the
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) issued by the
Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB, the nonprofit
organization that fulfills Congress's requirement for financial
reporting standards in the business world). GAAP establishes a
regimented process for recording and reporting financial
obligations each year as they are incurred, even if the payments
are deferred well into the future. These accounting standards are
complemented by federal laws that govern the funding and
measurement of company pension plans. Companies like General Motors
have been forced to talk with stockholders and unions about the
huge retirement liabilities in their financial statements and to
begin making the tough decisions necessary to fulfill their
obligations while preserving the company. Congress, however, while
recognizing the need for the private sector to consider
liabilities, has imposed no such requirements on itself.
As Washington ignores its financial
obligations, state and local governments have been reporting
pension liabilities in their financial statements since 1998 and
are now beginning to incorporate liabilities for retiree health
care into their financial statements. The Governmental Accounting
Standards Board, FASB's sister organization, will start phasing in
new financial reporting requirements for these programs in two
years. As a result, some cities and states will face much more
scrutiny from the bond market when they try to issue new debt or
maintain their credit ratings. Others, such as New York City, have
been forced to face the fact that they cannot pay what they have
promised and must begin the difficult task of identifying
solutions.
What Congress
Should Do. The financial reporting principles used by the
private sector and by state and local governments should be applied
to the federal budget to give policymakers a clearer picture of the
nation's financial health. Federal liabilities and obligations
increased by $3 trillion in 2005 alone--more than the entire
federal budget. Congress should act now by:
-
Imposing responsible
fiscal management on the budget process. Annual federal
financial statements should fully disclose the unfunded obligations
of entitlement programs, not just the debt and other traditional
liabilities. Federal financial statements reveal $4.6 trillion in
public debt and $6.2 trillion in additional liabilities, such as
federal employee and veterans retirement costs, but leave out
Social Security and Medicare obligations that bring the total debt
burden to over $46 trillion.
-
Requiring that annual
budget planning recognize changes in long-term liabilities and
obligations. Proposals to add or expand entitlement
programs should include a measure of the long-term budgetary
implications. Proposals to fix entitlement programs should also
include a long-term measure so that new costs can be evaluated
against future savings. In other words, Congress should disclose
the same information to taxpayers that it requires corporations to
disclose to stockholders.
-
Adopting a limit for
federal liabilities and obligations. This would work like
the debt limit, which lets Congress incur public and
intergovernmental debt (e.g., the Social Security Trust Fund) up to
a limit. A liability budget would start with public debt, add
federal liabilities such as federal employee pension costs, and
include total long-term Social Security and Medicare obligations
rather than cash flow borrowings from the trust funds. Spending
proposals would be evaluated on the basis of the long-term
obligations and savings that they would create. Liability increases
for new or expanded programs would be paid for by reducing
obligations from other programs. This would allow lawmakers to make
policy changes while requiring them to live within established
limits and providing a measure of full disclosure. Unlike the debt
limit, a vote to increase the liability budget should be a
stand-alone vote, not buried in other legislation.
Conclusion. Congress should change the
federal budget process to reflect changes in long-term liabilities
and obligations as the first step in addressing $36 trillion in
unfunded entitlement obligations.
Alison Acosta
Fraser is Director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for
Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation.