Nearly hysterical
calls to dispatch an international force to quell the conflict in
Lebanon are premature. The United States should not send troops to
Lebanon or endorse any plan for international engagement that lacks
a clear, achievable approach to disarming Hezbollah and building a
secure, peaceful, and prosperous nation.
Learn the
Lessons
U.S. forces are
not appropriate for this multinational mission, but U.S. experience
in Lebanon offers valuable lessons. Of the past three U.S.
operations in Lebanon, two were successful and one was an abject
failure. Eisenhower's 1958 intervention worked well because America
sent a strong force to achieve a limited mission of a limited
duration. A second intervention after the 1982 Israeli invasion of
Lebanon successfully separated the Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO) from Israeli forces and removed Palestinian
fighters from the country. U.S. troops then withdrew.
Americans returned after the assassination of Lebanese
president-elect Bashir Gemayel as part of multinational contingent
with a vague and open-ended mandate. In October 1983, a suicide
truck bombing killed 241 U.S. servicemen, precipitating a
withdrawal. The lesson is clear: When numbers are small, tasks
unclear, and the force is passive, a U.S. mission in Lebanon
becomes a target for terrorists, not a deterrent.
Conditions for
Deployment
Lebanon can never
be free while armed militias roam the country and provoke wars. No
troops should be dispatched until there are real prospects for
implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559 by disarming
Hezbollah. If an international force were deployed today,
it would face a protracted struggle. Hezbollah has been weakened by
Israeli military strikes, but it still has staying power and
local support. Right now, it will not agree to disarm
completely, but military reverses and the growing economic
discontent of its supporters might force Hezbollah to accept
a face-saving formula for a truce and enter into
demobilization talks with Lebanese government. This could be part
of a broader agreement that includes Hezbollah's disarmament in
exchange for acceptance as a political party qualified to
participate in elections.
Rules for
Engagement
If Hezbollah stops
fighting, introducing international forces might make sense, but
only under certain circumstances:
- The immediate
threat must be disarmed so that an international force can keep the
peace. Hezbollah should remove its rockets and heavy weapons from
the border and confine them to prescribed areas; all foreign powers
should withdraw their military forces from Lebanon; and the
Lebanese government should agree to cooperate in preventing,
investigating, and prosecuting any future terrorist acts.
- The mission of
the international force should be building up Lebanese military
capacity so that the Lebanese military can eventually demobilize
Hezbollah.
- The force's
mandate should include defending itself and targeting Hezbollah
forces that attack any country or move heavy weapons out of
prescribed areas.
- If NATO
participates, its assets should not come at the expense of member
country contributions to operations in Afghanistan and Iraq.
- Donor countries
should agree to a package of assistance to rapidly
build-up governance capacity and military capability of
Lebanon.
The Bottom Line
No international
force should be dispatched to Lebanon until there is a clear
understanding of the long-term goals. A force should not have an
open-ended mission but a clear mandate to assist in the
implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. Finally, any
force must be a robust force with robust rules of engagement.
James Jay Carafano,
Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow, and James Phillips is
Research Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies, in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.