Adding an
international relations angle to America's Independence Day
celebration, North Korea fired six missiles yesterday, and at least
one more today, into the Sea of Japan. Among these missiles was the
Taepodong 2 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which failed
approximately 40 seconds into its flight. These launches, while a
provocation that will further isolate North Korea from the rest of
the world, should not lead the United States to alter its approach
to confronting the bad behavior of the Kim Jong-Il regime. America
should continue to work with its partners in the Six-Party talks to
compel Pyongyang to cease its belligerent behavior. Further, the
U.S. should join with Japan and other nations to impose additional
economic sanctions on North Korea, both unilaterally and through
the United Nations Security Council. Finally, U.S. policymakers
should recognize that North Korea's missile tests underscore the
importance of developing a comprehensive ballistic missile defense
system.
Seven Missiles
At approximately
3:30 AM local time (2:30 PM EDT, just minutes after the launch of
the space shuttle Discovery), North Korea began its testing of
seven missiles. Six appear to have fired successfully; these were
Scud and Nodong missiles, which have been part of the North Korean
arsenal-and available for sale on international markets-for
years.
The remaining
missile was a Taepodong 2, which has been on its launch pad since
May. A fully functioning Taepodong 2 missile could potentially
strike the western United States, according to defense estimates.
But North Korean ICBM technology is not yet fully functional.
Roughly 40 seconds into its flight, the Taepodong 2 failed and
crashed approximately 200 miles west of Japan in the Sea of Japan.
This is good news in the short term, but the North Koreans will be
able to analyze what went wrong and use that information to attempt
to fix it. This test, despite the missile's failure, is a step
towards an operational North Korean ICBM.
The United States
ballistic missile defense system is reported to have been "on
alert" to intercept a threatening ICBM on a trajectory towards U.S.
territory.
A successful
launch would have proven the Taepodong 2 technology functional,
which North Korea had hoped would impact the Six-Party talks.
Further, it would have enhanced the marketability of the North
Korean arsenal among international weapons buyers.
The launches were
intended to return North Korea to the front of international
security discussions, a position more recently held by Iran and
Iraq. Beyond providing Kim Jong-Il with the attention he craves,
Pyongyang seeks to extract further concessions from the
international community-particularly if the United States could be
compelled to engage in bilateral negotiations outside of the
framework of the Six-Party talks.
That appears
unlikely. The United States has responded to North Korea's missile
tests by dispatching Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill,
the top American negotiator in the Six-Party talks, to the region
and has joined Japan in calling for the United Nations Security
Council to discuss the situation at a 10 AM meeting today.
Next Steps for the
Administration and Congress
Neither the
successful launches nor the unsuccessful Taepodong 2 test is an
immediate crisis. That North Korea possesses usable Scud and Nodong
missiles is old news; that the Taepodong 2 failed is evidence of
the difficulty of perfecting ICBM technology. America's commitment
to the Six-Party talks stems from a belief that they provide the
best framework for dealing with North Korea. This calculus is not
altered by any temper tantrum Kim Jong-Il might throw now or in the
future.
As part of its
commitment to the Six-Party talks, America should work with its
allies to confront the North Korean threat and appropriately punish
North Korea for its unannounced missile launches. The U.S. should
join the Japanese in imposing additional sanctions on the North
Korean regime, with the aim of pressuring Pyongyang to reengage in
the Six-Party talks. Further, the U.S. should push the United
Nations Security Council to punish North Korea's belligerent
behavior with more than just a presidential statement. The Security
Council has failed to live up to its responsibilities to control
North Korea in the past-for example, it could do no more than
"express concern" in 2003 when North Korea pulled out of the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. North Korea's recent behavior
provides the Security Council with an opportunity to address North
Korea's abandonment of international norms. Given China's public
statements last week urging North Korea not to test its Taepodong 2
missile, Security Council action may be more likely now than in the
past.
Finally,
Pyongyang's unpredictable behavior highlights the need for a fully
functioning, comprehensive ballistic missile defense system. While
the United States would have been wise to attempt an intercept of a
missile launched in the direction of U.S. territory, the United
States currently has a very limited capability to shoot down ICBMs.
Congress and the administration should immediately revisit the
Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS) proposal made in
1991 by the then-Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative
Organization, Ambassador Henry F. Cooper, and current National
Security Advisor Stephen J. Hadley. The GPALS system could engage
up to 200 individual missile reentry vehicles and destroy ICBMS
such as the Taepodong 2. North Korea will probably one day have the
capability to strike the United States; the United States must
develop a defensive capability able to protect itself from
Pyongyang's unpredictable behavior.
Conclusion
North Korea's July
4 missile launches do not fundamentally alter the challenge of
confronting North Korea's provocative behavior. They do, however,
provide Pyongyang with useful information on its Taepodong 2 ICBM
technology, violate the North Korea's 1999 self-imposed moratorium
on missile launches and further isolate North Korea from the other
nations in the Six-Party talks. While keeping yesterday's events in
the proper perspective, the United States should use this
opportunity to encourage the international community to take a
stronger approach towards Pyongyang and to underscore the
importance of a ballistic missile defense system as part of a
comprehensive American national security strategy. Finally, America
must remain committed to the Six-Party talks no matter how Kim
Jong-Il lashes out.
Michael A. Needham is
Director of the Asian Study Center at The Heritage Foundation.