As the August 31
deadline to freeze its uranium enrichment program approaches, Iran
continues to shrug off its obligations under the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty and thumb its nose at the U.N. Security
Council. The Ahmadinejad regime apparently has calculated that the
Security Council will fail to follow through on its threat under
Resolution 1696 to impose sanctions if Iran merely signals a
willingness to enter endless talks without shutting down its
suspect activities or that Iran's friends, Russia and China, will
use their veto power to water down any sanctions. Once the deadline
passes, the United States should take immediate action to mobilize
support for the strongest possible sanctions at the Security
Council and press its allies to follow through with even stronger
sanctions outside the U.N. framework, where Russia and China will
not be able to protect Iran from the consequences of its nuclear
defiance.
This course is
likely to prove necessary. On Saturday, President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad ostentatiously inaugurated Iran's heavy water nuclear
reactor at Arak, a provocative symbolic gesture. This reactor is
capable of producing plutonium, the preferred fissile material for
arming nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles, and gives Iran yet
another possible route to attaining nuclear weapons.
Continued
Stalling
The EU-3's
(Britain, France, and Germany) on-again off-again negotiations with
Tehran from 2003 to 2005 only allowed Iran to defuse and delay
international action and buy more time for its nuclear weapons
program. Tehran continues to stall. In its non-response to the U.N.
Security Council's demand for a halt in uranium enrichment, Tehran
included a 21-page document that sought to clarify "ambiguities" in
the incentives offered by the EU-3 and the United States if it
suspends its suspect activities. This is another Iranian attempt to
bog down the issue in endless talks.
An international
response to Tehran's stubborn refusal to abide by its treaty
commitments-and not further talks about talks-is long overdue. Yet
U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan is due to meet President
Ahmadinejad on September 2. The Bush Administration should
privately warn Annan that it will torpedo any last-ditch attempt to
stave off international sanctions with another round of desultory
talks. Iran has not paid any price for its failure to disclose its
nuclear activities, which were discovered in 2002. It is high time
that Iran be penalized for its continued refusal to cooperate fully
with the International Atomic Energy Agency's investigation of its
clandestine nuclear program.
The United States
should:
- Press for
the strongest possible sanctions at the U.N. Security Council after
the August 31 deadline lapses. Sanctions should be
targeted on the regime, sparing the Iranian people as much as
possible, and should include: travel bans on Iranian leaders; a ban
on sales of nuclear equipment and dual-use technology that could be
useful to Iran's nuclear program; a ban on extending credits or
loans to Iran; and freezes on the overseas assets of Iranian
officials, government agencies, and corporate entities that
facilitate the importation of equipment and materials for the
nuclear program.
- Prepare
for sanctions outside the U.N. framework. Tehran is
counting on Moscow and Beijing to use their veto power at the
Security Council to block or water down sanctions. Both of Iran's
friends have extensive economic, strategic, and military ties to
Iran. Once it has extracted the strongest possible sanctions that
it can get at the United Nations, Washington should press its
European and Asian allies, along with other countries threatened by
an Iranian nuclear weapons program, to impose the strongest
possible sanctions, including a ban on transfers to Iran of arms,
dual-use technology, foreign investment, and loans.
- Renew,
strengthen, and enforce existing U.S. sanctions on Iran.
The Iran Freedom and Support Act would improve the Administration's
leverage with Iran. The act would strengthen and permanently
reauthorize the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which imposes
economic sanctions on companies that invest more than $20 million
per year in Iran's oil industry. ILSA is set to expire in September
if not renewed. Once the act is reauthorized, the Bush
Administration should use it to penalize companies that invest in
Iran's oil industry and thereby help Iran to finance its nuclear
activities, military buildup, and support for terrorism. The Iran
Freedom and Support Act also would authorize the president to
provide assistance to Iranian opposition groups that support
democracy, oppose terrorism, and advocate nuclear nonproliferation
in Iran.
- Improve
intelligence on Iran's nuclear weapons program and other
threats. The House Permanent Select Committee on
Intelligence last week released a report, , that called for urgent improvement of
U.S. efforts to gather accurate intelligence on Iran. The report
concluded, "U.S. policymakers and intelligence officials believe,
without exception, that the United States must collect more and
better intelligence on a wide range of Iranian issues - its
political dynamics, economic health, support for terrorism, the
nature of its involvement in Iraq, the status of its nuclear,
biological and chemical weapons efforts, and many more topics of
interest." Such improved intelligence would be especially valuable
if it ultimately proves necessary to use military power as a last
resort to defuse Iran's potential nuclear threat.
Conclusion
Tehran's strategy is
clear: Just as it has since 2002, it will pursue diplomatic gambits
to drive a wedge into the tentative coalition of states opposing
its nuclear weapons program and stall action while it builds its
nuclear capabilities. So far, it has evaded any consequences for
its nuclear duplicity. The United States must take the lead to
raise the diplomatic, economic, political, and possible military
costs to the Ahmadinejad regime of its prohibited nuclear
activities.
James Phillips is
Research Fellow in Middle Eastern Studies, in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.