Although the Iraq Study Group (ISG) report has been dubbed "the
revenge of the realists," it is unrealistic on two important
diplomatic issues. While its recommendation to invite Iran and
Syria to play a bigger role inside Iraq has been highly criticized,
its questionable linkage of progress in Iraq to progress on
resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict has received less attention.
The simplistic connection the ISG report makes between building
peace in Baghdad and building peace in Jerusalem does not stand up
to serious scrutiny.
If Israelis and Palestinians reached peace tomorrow, it would be
ludicrous to expect a therapeutic spillover effect in Iraq. The
fighting in Iraq is caused by a brutal struggle for power, a proxy
war fueled by Iran's growing ambitions in the region and al-Qaeda's
ruthless campaign to establish a base of operations to export its
totalitarian Islamic revolution. Iraq's Sunni insurgents and Shia
militias, provoked by insurgent atrocities, would continue their
bloody handiwork regardless of events between Israelis and
Palestinians.
But five of the Iraq Study Group's 79 recommendations focused on
jumpstarting the moribund Arab-Israeli peace negotiations in the
vain hope that this would make a difference in Iraq. James Baker,
the ISG co-chairman, maintains that Syria can be "flipped" and
persuaded to reverse course and drop its longstanding alliance with
Iran, and stop stoking terrorism and factional bloodletting in
Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. This advice
represents the triumph of hope over experience.
As Secretary of State in 1990-1991, Baker failed to "flip"
Syria, despite extensive diplomatic efforts. Syrian dictator Hafez
al-Assad did agree to send a small Syrian military force to Kuwait
after its liberation from Iraqi occupation in early 1991, but this
symbolic deployment came at a high price: the strengthening of
Syrian domination over Lebanon. The Assad regime did attend the
1991 Madrid peace conference but continued to support Palestinian
terrorist groups opposed to peace with Israel.
After the multilateral Madrid talks bogged down and Israel began
secret bilateral talks with the Palestine Liberation Organization
in Oslo, Norway, Syria made every effort to torpedo the Oslo peace
process. Damascus stepped up its support for Hamas, Palestinian
Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian terror groups opposed to
peace. Baker's failure was followed by the failure of Secretary of
State Warren Christopher to broker a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement
despite more than 20 trips to Damascus during the Clinton
Administration. The Assad regime was interested in a peace process
that it could exploit to deflect international pressure to halt its
support of terrorism, but it rejected a genuine peace with Israel
even though Israel was willing to return the Golan Heights, a
Syrian territory occupied by Israel since the 1967 Arab-Israeli
war.
Secretary of State Colin Powell also failed to "flip" Syria.
Powell visited Damascus in May 2003 to discuss bilateral issues
with Assad's son Bashar, who became Syria's dictator after Assad
died in 2000. Bashar Assad reportedly promised to cooperate in
halting the influx of foreign Islamic militants into Iraq across
Syria's border, but he has failed to deliver on his promises. In
addition to harboring high-level Iraqi Baathist leaders who provide
financing and direction to Iraqi insurgents, the younger Assad has
stepped up efforts to intimidate Lebanese leaders who increasingly
chafed at Syria's longtime occupation of Lebanon. The Assad regime
was implicated in the 2005 assassinations of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri and a long list of other Lebanese leaders who
opposed Syrian interference in Lebanon's internal affairs. Last
month Lebanon's Minister of Industry, Pierre Gemayel, was
assassinated before a crucial cabinet vote to approve an
international tribunal to investigate Hariri's assassination, a
measure Syria strongly opposed.
Reviving the long dormant Syrian-Israeli peace talks would let
Syria's Assad regime off the hook for its transgressions in Lebanon
by blunting international efforts to hold it accountable for its
use of murder as a foreign policy tool. Damascus will simply do
what it has repeatedly done: pay lip service to peace negotiations
while it continues to arm, finance, and harbor terrorists
responsible for the murders of Americans, Israelis, Iraqis, and
Lebanese.
Even if the Assad regime became genuinely cooperative on peace
negotiations, the prospects for successful Palestinian-Israeli
peace negotiations remain terrible for the foreseeable future. The
Hamas-led Palestinian Authority rejects not only peace negotiations
with Israel but Israel's right to exist. There is no realistic
chance for advancing peace negotiations until Hamas has been
squeezed out of power--not included in a government of national
unity as recommended by the ISG.
If there is a link between the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iraq,
it is the threat to a stable peace posed by terrorists supported by
Syria and Iran. Those repressive regimes should be isolated and
punished for their bloody subversion of their neighbors, not
rewarded with invitations to participate in an illusory "peace
process" that sacrifices the interests of American allies in
Israel, Lebanon, and Iraq.
James Phillips is
Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.