According to unconfirmed news reports, the commander of al-Qaeda
operations in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, was killed earlier this
week in a clash with Sunni Arab tribesmen north of Baghdad. While
these reports may prove to be false--the Iraqi Interior Ministry
had mistakenly claimed that Masri was killed in February--the news
this time comes not from the Iraqi government but from Sunni Arab
tribes that had formerly cooperated with the terrorist group. The
estrangement of al-Qaeda in Iraq from its erstwhile allies is a
hopeful sign for U.S. Iraq policy. Yet many opponents of the Bush
Administration's policy in Iraq are unlikely to recognize it as
such, in part because they mistakenly see the war in Iraq as a
distraction from the war on terrorism.
Masri, an Egyptian who honed his terrorist skills in
Afghanistan, has led al-Qaeda in Iraq since the death last June of
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian. In April, Masri was named as the
"Minister of War" of the "Islamic State of Iraq," an umbrella
organization for radical Sunni militant groups that seek to
transform Iraq into a revolutionary Islamic state. Their goals and
tactics, which include extensive and indiscriminate attacks on
civilians, have been rejected by other Sunni Arabs, including many
Sunni insurgent groups, who increasingly have turned against
them.
This growing backlash against al-Qaeda in Iraq has led to the
formation of the Anbar Salvation Council, a coalition of Sunni
tribes opposed to al-Qaeda in Anbar province, a bastion of the
Sunni-dominated insurgency. Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Reesha, head of
the council, claims that his men killed Masri in a fierce battle
earlier this week. He has appealed to the Iraqi government to
dispatch security forces to support his tribal militia against
al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has repeatedly launched terrorist attacks
against his supporters, including car bombs, suicide bombers, and
chlorine gas bombs. Meanwhile, Abu Reesha has ordered thousands of
his supporters to join the local police forces, greatly improving
the security situation in the province.
The council's efforts are a positive development that
demonstrates progress has been made by the United States and the
Iraqi government in driving a wedge between some Sunni insurgent
groups and the most radical groups, such as al-Qaeda in Iraq. The
U.S. Army reportedly has provided the Anbar Salvation Council with
ammunition, while the Iraqi government has provided vehicles.
Despite this progress, if the Democrat-controlled Congress has
its way, U.S. troops would rush to withdraw, leaving the Iraqi
government and the Anbar Salvation Council at the mercy of al-Qaeda
in Iraq and other bloodthirsty groups. Many opponents of the Bush
Administration's Iraq policy continue to indulge in wishful
thinking about the consequences of a rushed exit from Iraq, despite
the fact that the most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
on Iraq, released in February, concludes that such a policy would
lead to a catastrophe. Some deny that Iraq means anything in the
broader war against terrorism, despite a NIE released last year
that concluded that a defeat for the U.S. in Iraq would be
perceived as a tremendous victory for Islamic radicals and "would
inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere."[1] Others would
prefer to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan rather than Iraq, despite
the fact that al-Qaeda's operational commander in Afghanistan
stated in a video released on April 28 that Iraq is "the focal
point of the conflict."[2]
Al-Qaeda's strategy is to carve out a state-within-a-state in
Iraq to use as a springboard for exporting terrorism and
subversion. Iraq looms much larger in al-Qaeda's plans than
Afghanistan because of its strategic location in the heart of the
Arab world, in close proximity to the Persian Gulf oil fields, a
high-value target for attack. Iraq is a more useful staging area
for attacks on neighboring countries and Israel, which is likely to
become more of a target for future al-Qaeda terrorism. Moreover,
Baghdad was once the seat of the caliphate that al-Qaeda seeks to
recreate, which is an important ideological consideration. Finally,
as an Arab-dominated movement, al-Qaeda would have a much easier
time operating from bases in Sunni Arab regions in Iraq than in
Afghanistan or Pakistan, where Arab travelers stand out from the
local population.
Congress must seriously confront the consequences of a rapid
withdrawal from Iraq and support continued efforts to help the
Iraqi government contain and defeat the insurgency. Abandoning
Iraqis to an al-Qaeda-provoked civil war would have devastating
consequences for U.S. national interests, the Middle East, and the
Iraqi people.
James Phillips is
Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.