One of the last bilateral U.S.-Russia presidential meetings
between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin will take place on the
sidelines of the G-8 Summit at the Baltic Sea coastal resort of
Heiligendamm, Germany from June 6-8. The two presidents should use
this chance to define a common agenda in order to repair the
deteriorating relations between the two countries.
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has remained
Russia's obsession, its "principal adversary." President Putin has
severely criticized U.S. foreign policy in several instances,
including a speech in Munich on February 1, an interview with Al
Jazeera, and a Victory Day speech in Moscow. U.S. criticism of
Russian domestic and foreign policy has been more restrained;
during her last trip to Moscow, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
explicitly called for a toning down of the acrimony.
Russia has engaged its neighbors Georgia and Estonia with harsh
rhetoric and harsher measures; has limited political and media
freedoms domestically; has used disproportionate police force to
disperse peaceful demonstrations; and has steadfastly refused to
allow Western and domestic private companies access to "strategic"
energy and natural resources, assets, and pipelines. As often as
not, Russia positions itself as an adversary of the United
States.
Russia As a Geostrategic
Heavyweight
There are deep historical and ideological roots to the current
friction. Russia's global strategy is driven by military and
security elites who view their nation as the direct heir to the
Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, and cherish its role as
America's principal counterbalance on the world scene. Today, many
in Moscow advocate for a de facto alliance with the Muslim world,
particularly with Iran and Syria, as well as with China. Moscow is
reaching out to anti-status quo states such as Iran and Venezuela,
and views Russians as largely culturally distinct from "the
West."
Russia is using a full array of modern international relations
tools to achieve its goals: public diplomacy; weapons sales to the
Iranian mullahs and the Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez; strategic
information operations aimed at depicting America as an
out-of-control hyperpower; putting former political leaders on the
petrodollar payroll; and coddling terrorist organizations such as
Hamas and Hezbollah. Playing its energy cards brilliantly, Russian
diplomacy has become chillingly effective, especially along its
periphery. But in the words of one incisive observer, Russia has
left the West.
The Need to Pay Attention
Amidst escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the United
States should pay close attention to a resurgent Russia. Moscow is
taking steps to reorder the post-Cold War global security
architecture, often in ways contrary to U.S. interests.
The more economic muscle the Russian state gets, the more
truculent it becomes at home and abroad. It has reasserted itself
as it has become flush with cash from energy sales.
Russian elites are searching for enemies old and new. They view
Bush Administration policies--such as democracy promotion,
including in Eurasia--as part of a sinister plot to undermine
President Vladimir Putin's Administration. They point to a series
of "orange revolutions" along Russia's periphery--in Georgia,
Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and, they claim, eventually in Moscow itself.
However, the Russian elites fail to notice that democracy promotion
has lost steam after fiascos in the Palestinian territories and in
Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood has risen with vengeance, and
as reform movements in Ukraine and Belarus sputtered.
What the United States Should Do
Russia's enemy-searching is likely to become a self-fulfilling
prophecy, with dangerous consequences and a high price in treasure
and, ultimately, in blood. The United States is fully engaged in
two regional conflicts--in Iraq and Afghanistan--and in the global
war on terror. Over the horizon, its relations with China may
become complicated. The United States obviously does not need a new
Cold War with a major land power in the Eastern hemisphere.
Washington should remember that Moscow values certainty in
relations, respects power and action, and is ready for a
constructive engagement. The Heiligendamm summit is one of the last
opportunities for Bush and Putin to revive the stronger ties that
existed six years ago, when both leaders took office.
In light of Russia's confrontational foreign policy, President
Bush should pursue the following strategies at the G-8 Summit:
- Reiterate to President Putin that
nuclear-armed Iran is a long-term threat to Russian security, and
that the United States will expect Russian cooperation in the U.N.
Security Council and elsewhere in using diplomatic and security
measures to derail the Iranian nuclear program.
- Explain that the United States is not pursuing
a strategy of overthrowing Mr. Putin's regime, but that Russia's
heavy-handed tactics against domestic opposition will isolate it in
the international community, including in the G-8, which is a
leader of democratic nations. Democratic norms for
domestic behavior apply to all G-8 members.
- Continue dialogue and cooperation with Russia
on matters of mutual concern by demonstrating to Russian elites all
that the Unites States has to offer. Fields of cooperation may
include energy (especially nuclear energy), non-proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, science and space exploration,
medicine, education, environmental protection, and economic issues
of concern to Russia such as expansion of its mortgage
market.
- Confer with European leaders regarding a
concerted energy policy which would diminish Europe's growing
dependence on Russian natural gas and prevent emergence of a gas
OPEC.
Conclusion
After a 20-year hiatus, Russia is forcing its way back onto the
global scene as an adversarial actor. Washington decision makers
can no longer take Moscow for granted and must design better
strategies for coping with this old-new geopolitical challenge in
Eurasia. Strategies should include hefty carrot-and-stick
components and should not be limited to rhetoric, as happened in
the past.
Ariel Cohen,
Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.