Senator Ken Salazar (D-CO), Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN), and
a growing list of other Senators are co-sponsoring an amendment to
the defense authorization bill that calls for the implementation of
the recommendations of last year's Iraq Study Group (ISG) report.
This effort undermines the President's authority as Commander in
Chief in the middle of a difficult war and seeks to impose
simplistic solutions, based on a lowest common denominator
consensus of a Washington-based commission, on a complex conflict
thousands of miles away. Moreover, it ignores key conclusions of
the commission itself: The ISG warned against the danger of a rapid
U.S. troop withdrawal, rejected calls for a withdrawal timetable,
and explicitly endorsed a possible surge in U.S. troops if called
for by the U.S. commander in Iraq.
Wishful Thinking
The ISG report described a "grave and deteriorating" situation in
Iraq but presented a highly optimistic scenario for drawing down
U.S. troops and restricting their combat role while addressing the
security situation at the margins. Among its 79 prescriptions were
a mixture of practical suggestions for accelerating the training of
Iraqi security forces; a gradual shift in the primary role of U.S.
troops from combat to training Iraqi forces; vague calls for a
diplomatic offensive to stabilize Iraq, including dangerous and
unrealistic efforts to "engage" Iran and Syria, who seek to
sabotage the emergence of a stable democracy in Iraq; and a mixed
bag of recommendations for helping Iraqis to move forward with
national reconciliation, political and economic reforms, and
broad-based power-sharing.
The proposal to implement the ISG's recommendations (SA 2063) is
unrealistic and unwise, because it fails to take into account the
security and political situation in Iraq. Rather, it is focused on
the political situation in Washington. The amendment does not
recognize the disastrous military, geopolitical, and humanitarian
consequences that a rapid U.S. troop withdrawal would have in Iraq
and the surrounding region.
SA 2603 sets a target date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops
that are not deemed necessary for force protection or
counterterrorism operations by the end of March 2008. By inflexibly
clinging to the same target date as last year's ISG report, the
bill greatly accelerates the pace of withdrawal and exacerbates the
risks of destabilizing Iraq and the surrounding region. This rush
for the exit in Iraq in a little more than 9 months contradicts the
ISG report's statement that "We also rejected the immediate
withdrawal of our troops, because we believe that so much is at
stake."[1]
Also, SA 2063 is internally inconsistent. Section 1544 (4) calls
for the U.S. government to secure the borders of Iraq, which would
require far more U.S. troops than the approximately 160,000 troops
deployed there now. Section 1544 (11) calls for the U.S. government
to assist the Iraqi government in achieving political, military,
and economic milestones. But at the same time, the bill diminishes
the U.S. government's ability to help Iraq reach these milestones
by reducing the number of U.S. troops deployed there and
restricting the nature of their operations. If these milestones,
many of which were mentioned in the ISG Report, are so important,
then why sabotage the ability of the United States to help the
Iraqis attain them? And how do the supporters of this bill propose
to help Iraqis attain these milestones in the midst of growing
insecurity caused by the withdrawal of U.S. troops?
By mandating a "cut and run" strategy, SA 2063 would undermine
the security situation in Iraq and reduce the ability of rival
political leaders to reach the compromises necessary for national
reconciliation. It not only ties the President's hands in the
middle of a war and undermines his constitutional authority as the
Commander in Chief but also restricts the operational flexibility
of military commanders in the Iraq war zone. Such congressional
micromanagement is self-defeating.
The bill, which was proposed on June 5 before the surge in
troops had been completed and the surge in operations had fully
begun, is clearly designed to abort the Bush Administration's new
Iraq strategy before the results of that strategy are known. This
directly contradicts the ISG report, which explicitly accepted the
idea of a possible surge: "We could, however, support a short-term
redeployment or surge of American combat forces to stabilize
Baghdad, or to speed up the training and equipping mission, if the
U.S. commander in Iraq determines that such steps would be
effective."[2]
Iraq Study Group Co-Chairman James Baker appealed to Congress in
January to give General Petraeus's surge strategy a chance to work:
"So I guess my bottom line on the surge is, look, the President's
plan ought to be given a chance. Give it a chance, because we heard
all of this. The general that you confirmed, 81 to nothing, day
before yesterday, this is his idea."[3]
Conclusion: Resist a Rush to Judgment
In the six months since Mr. Baker urged that the surge be given a
chance, there have been hopeful signs of progress in the parts of
Iraq that the surge strategy has targeted: Baghdad and Anbar
Province, a key stronghold of the insurgents. Sectarian violence
has fallen in Baghdad, and a coalition of Sunni tribesmen formerly
allied to al-Qaeda in Iraq has turned against it in Anbar Province.
By and large, however, the overall results of the surge will not be
known for many months. Congress should avoid a rush to judgment
that could fatally undermine the Bush Administration's surge
strategy before the results of the surge have been conclusively
evaluated.
James Phillips
is Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Douglas and
Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the
Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.
[1] The Iraq Study Group Report, 2006, page
73.
[2] The Iraq Study Group Report, 2006, page
73.
[3] Response to a question during a hearing
before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, January 30,
2007.